Picking the Spread: Best Bets Predictions for the CFP Championship Game

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For the second time these playoffs, the Miami Hurricanes are a sizable underdog for next Monday’s College Football Playoff Championship Game. Despite playing in their home stadium, our friends at Fan Duel opened betting with Miami as a 7.5 point underdog. That line has since moved to an 8.5 point underdog. For the responsible gamblers out there, here are the best bets for next week’s national championship game.

Miami Total Points: OVER 19.5 points (-106)

Just once this season did the Miami Hurricanes fail to score 20 points, and that’s when the ‘Canes played in a windstorm in College Station, Texas. Miami breached the 20 point threshold against every other team including the No. 1 (Ohio State) and No. 11 (Notre Dame) scoring defenses, scoring 24 points against each (and leaving quite a few points on the field).

Miami tends to play a methodical and physical style of football that keeps the trains-on-time with 3 to 7 yard gains. This means that the ‘Canes rarely score in the high 30’s or 40’s against top competition, but it also means that the ‘Canes almost always reach the 20 point threshold. While taking the combined over at 48.5 points looks like a strong bet, the stronger bet is to take the over on the Hurricanes’ points. Heck, even if Miami gets blown out, their lack of quit should at least equal Oregon’s who put 22 on the scoreboard.

Malachi Toney Scores a Touchdown at Any Time (+145)

Since the SMU game, Miami’s play calling has blossomed to a complimentary attack with the freshman phenom being the most potent weapon. Mark Fletcher has the best odds of any Miami player to score a touchdown (+105), but Toney is the safer bet to find the endzone. Toney has scored a receiving touchdown in five of the Hurricane’s last six contests, including the aforementioned wind storm in Texas. Fletcher, by contrast, has only scored one touchdown during the same stretch despite seeing his yardage and carries progressively rise. Toney, with better odds, is Miami’s best player bet to score a touchdown.

Fernando Mendoza Alt Passing Yards: 200+ Yards (-166)

The even money line for Fernando Mendoza’s passing yards is 215.5 yds. Despite having a Heisman season, and leading Indiana to mostly blowout victories, Mendoza rarely surpasses that number. Indiana beat the holy heck out of Alabama and Oregon in the playoffs, but Mendoza only threw for 192 yards and 177 yards, respectively. Mendoza just barely eclipsed this mark in the Big Ten Championship Game, throwing 222 yards against Ohio State.

Mendoza’s passing stats are a bit all over the place in Indiana’s blowout wins – throwing for as few as 117 yards against Purdue and as many as 332 yards against Michigan State – but Mendoza’s stats are remarkably consistent in close contests. Indiana has played in four games decided by 10 points or less: at Iowa (20-15), at Oregon (30-20), at Penn State (27-24), and vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship (13-10). In those games Mendoza respectively threw for 233 yards, 215 yards, 218 yards, and 222 yards. Vegas put the over/under on his passing yards right in the middle of this range. 200 passing yards in the national championship game is a pretty safe floor, with only slightly worse odds at -166.

Miami to Cover +8.5 Spread (-110)

It’s been more than two seasons since Miami’s been blown out by two or more scores – a 20-6 loss to NC State and a 41-31 loss to North Carolina in the 2023 season. And even those two-score losses were away games. Cristobal’s teams don’t always win, but they keep the contest close no matter the opponent. Conversely, undefeated Indiana has let three contests this season stay within a single score.

If ‘Canes fans are wary of taking Miami to win outright (+280), at least know that Indiana covering the spread would require sending this Hurricanes team back in time by three seasons.

4-Way Parlay Odds: +1356

If all four of these hit, then next Monday was probably a competitive, one-score game where Toney managed to find the end zone and Indiana was regularly passing in the fourth quarter. What’s the likelihood that happens? More than 1 out of 13 times these teams would play. That said, the last time the national championship game was decided by one score was 2017 when Alabama and Georgia played to overtime. That’s nine-straight snooze-fest championship games. We’re due for a classic…right?!?!

p.s. this parlay jumps to +2800 if you take Miami to win the natty.

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