ESPN provides final analytics, preview, prediction for Iowa football vs. Oregon

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One day away from the Iowa Hawkeyes hosting the Oregon Ducks, and the anticipation for the matchup is growing more and more with each bit of analysis on the game. We have picks being made for the Hawkeyes to pull off the upset. We have Oregon getting it done.

What we do know is that this is a massive Big Ten battle with huge implications at stake. With the kickoff just over 24 hours away, ESPN dug into the matchup with its final analysis and offered its predictions and picks for how this showdown shakes out.

Outlook

The weather has been a key storyline all week. Sure, it will be cold, wet, and rainy, but Iowa isn’t the only team that can handle that. It does, in fact, rain in the state of Oregon. That said, it could put a damper on the Ducks’ passing attack, which drags them into a physical battle against Iowa.

No. 9 Oregon at No. 20 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)

The current weather forecast for Iowa City on Saturday afternoon is sloppy: Temperature in the low-to-mid-40s, 90% chance of rain. That’s some serious Iowa November weather, though come to think of it, it’s pretty Oregon, too, isn’t it? – Bill Connelly, ESPN

Oregon Ducks

How good is Oregon? Through eight games, they have managed to look the part, while also showing some cracks in the armor. Which Oregon team shows up in Iowa City? Is it the Oregon that is winning games handily against the schedule handed to them? Or is it the Oregon team just getting by?

Tuesday’s CFP rankings revealed some vulnerability for Dan Lanning’s Ducks. They’re awesome on paper (third in both SP+ and FPI), but they’ve played only two SP+ top-50 teams and lost to their only top-tier opponent (Indiana). One of the things that makes me uneasy about the way we discuss strength of schedule is that we seemingly treat it as a choice — Oregon chose to play a weak schedule, therefore the Ducks don’t deserve to rank as high even though they’re clearly very good. It’s not their fault preseason No. 2 Penn State face-planted after losing to the Ducks, just as it’s not their fault that Oklahoma State, a nonconference opponent scheduled years ago when the Cowboys were consistently excellent, has become one of the worst power conference teams in recent history. – Bill Connelly, ESPN

Iowa Hawkeyes

This is the chance Iowa has wanted all year long. Iowa has an opportunity, on a national stage, to gain respect from the college football world if it can pull this off. If they can steal the win, it isn’t just a fun upset; it plants Iowa firmly into the College Football Playoff conversation.

Iowa has been underrated all season — the Hawkeyes are still somehow unranked in the AP poll despite suffering losses only in an early-season rivalry game against Iowa State (when ISU was soaring) and by five points to an Indiana team that has beaten everyone else by double digits. They’re 17th in SP+, sixth on defense, and their offense is good at all the things that Iowa always wants to be good at but very much wasn’t between 2021 and 2023: rushing (11th in rushing success rate*), penalty avoidance (fewest penalty yards), turnover avoidance (fifth-fewest turnovers) and short yardage (second in third-and-short success rate). – Bill Connelly, ESPN

Kinnick Stadium

This is the factor that has to play a part for Iowa on big third downs and late in the game if this thing stays close. Iowa needs all of the almost 70,000 fans inside Kinnick to be at a deafening roar when the Ducks are on offense. If they can do that, this thing should become very hostile for the Ducks very quickly.

We haven’t gotten a nice, big upset at Kinnick Stadium in a little while. Iowa hasn’t hosted a top-10 team since 2022 (Michigan) and hasn’t beaten one at home since 2021 (Penn State). Oregon is awesome, but this should be quite the challenge. And in challenging conditions, no less. – Bill Connelly, ESPN

Predictions

Both of ESPN’s projections, the SP+ and the FPI, are liking the Ducks to take care of business against Iowa, though neither is predicting any sort of blowout, as both are roughly a touchdown victory by Oregon. You have to think that if Iowa is within a one-score striking distance late, they would take that opportunity every time.

Current line: Oregon -6.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 7.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 5.1.– Bill Connelly, ESPN

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This article originally appeared on Hawkeyes Wire: Iowa Football: ESPN provides analytics, prediction, pick vs. Oregon

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