Five matchups that will decide the Miami-Indiana national title game

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The Hurricanes and Hoosiers face off in the national title game on Monday. Indiana is a heavy favorite, but Miami is undefeated in three games as the underdog this season.

The Hoosiers feature some of the best players in the nation, including Heisman Trophy winner (and Miami native) Fernando Mendoza.

If UM is going to pull off the upset, it will need to win several key matchups. Here are five of the biggest ones:

Mark Fletcher Jr. vs. Indiana’s run defense

Miami has relied on Mark Fletcher Jr. to excel in the running game in the playoffs, and the American Heritage alum has delivered. Fletcher has 395 rushing yards in UM’s three playoff games, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.

But Indiana features a stout run defense. The Hoosiers are second in the nation with just 75 rushing yards allowed per game. Pro Football Focus rates them third nationally with a 94.1 run-defense grade.

Indiana has good run stoppers at all levels of its defense. Defensive tackle Tyrique Tucker has an 82.5 run-defense grade. Linebacker Rolijah Hardy has a 91.1 run-defense grade, which is the second-best mark among linebackers with 200 or more run-defense snaps. Safety Devan Boykin has the highest run-defense grade (93.9) at his position nationally.

Fletcher has been excellent at running through contact, averaging 3.7 yards after contact and forcing 55 missed tackles. He will need to keep that going against IU.

Miami’s pass rush vs. Indiana’s offensive line

The Hurricanes have leaned on their excellent pass-rush unit all season. Defensive ends Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have been two of the nation’s top defensive ends, and other defenders like defensive tackle Ahmad Moten Sr., cornerback Keionte Scott and safety Jakobe Thomas have gotten into the backfield, too.

Miami will need to get into Indiana’s backfield to disrupt Mendoza. The star quarterback is one of the best in the nation when under pressure, but like every quarterback, he gets significantly less accurate and more prone to errors when under pressure.

The Hoosiers’ offensive line is good, and left tackle Carter Smith is one of the best pass protectors in the nation. But there are weaknesses in the line. Indiana’s line is ranked 16th nationally in pass-blocking efficiency, according to PFF. Right tackle Kahlil Benson has been particularly weak at pass blocking, allowing four sacks and 24 pressures. He has a 56.2 pass-blocking grade.

Carson Beck vs. Indiana’s secondary

Beck has performed well since UM lost to SMU, and he has protected the ball. In his last seven games, Beck has thrown just two interceptions (one of which, vs. Ole Miss, was tipped at the line of scrimmage). The Hurricanes need Beck to keep that trend going.

Indiana has excelled at taking the ball away from opposing quarterbacks. The Hoosiers are tied for seventh nationally with 18 interceptions.

Indiana opened its blowout victory over Oregon with a pick-six, setting the tone for the entire game. Beck and the Hurricanes must avoid turning the ball over.

Keelan Marion/CJ Daniels vs. D’Angelo Ponds

Beck will have to deal with the entire Hoosiers secondary. One of Miami’s outside wide receivers — typically CJ Daniels or Keelan Marion — will specifically have to play against star cornerback D’Angelo Ponds.

Ponds was a solid player at Chaminade-Madonna, but he was underrecruited. Curt Cignetti signed Ponds when he was still coaching James Madison, and he brought Ponds with him to the Big 10. Since then, Ponds has become one of the nation’s best cornerbacks, earning All-American and All-Big 10 honors.

This year, Ponds has 56 tackles and two interceptions. PFF gave him an 87.7 defensive grade, which is seventh-best among all cornerbacks.

Daniels has been decent during the playoff run, making 11 catches for 104 yards. But Marion has been Miami’s most explosive outside receiver in the postseason, making 15 catches for 183 yards — including a 52-yard touchdown catch against Ole Miss. They have a tough task ahead of them.

Miami’s secondary vs. Fernando Mendoza

Mendoza has been excellent all season. He has completed 73 percent of his passes for 3,349 yards and 41 touchdowns with only six interceptions. The Miami Columbus High alum has only gotten better in the playoffs, completing 86.1 percent of his passes for 369 yards and eight touchdowns with no picks.

Miami’s job is to slow him down, and it will have to do it with a weakened secondary. The Hurricanes will be missing cornerback Xavier Lucas, who was called for targeting in the second half of the Fiesta Bowl and is suspended for the first half of the title game. Fellow cornerback OJ Frederique Jr. has been banged up and played only five snaps against Ole Miss, but Miami coach Mario Cristobal said he should be good to play against Indiana. Cornerback Damari Brown, who has not played since the end of the regular season, is day to day, according to Cristobal.

UM will need solid play from its cornerbacks all over the depth chart to contain the Heisman winner.

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