ESPN Predicts Oklahoma Won't Make College Football Playoff Again in 2026
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The 2025 College Football Playoff featured the return of several historic programs in the sport, including the Oklahoma Sooners, who qualified for the playoff after finishing with a record of 6-7 in 2024. The question now is whether they will be able to make another run in 2026.
ESPN analytical expert Bill Connelly has created a list of the 12 teams he believes will compete in next season’s tournament. Connelly applied specific criteria to develop these rankings. Rather than simply asking, “Which teams are the best on paper?” he sought to establish guidelines to help predict how the CFP race will unfold.
Last year, his formula only correctly predicted four of the 12 playoff teams; ESPN’s Way-Too-Early predictions only forecasted three. Additionally, the rules from last year do not require many changes. These rules are:
- The Big Ten will be won by the best team not named Ohio State.
- The SEC has to be won by either Kirby Smart (2017, 2022, 2024, 2025) or a coach who has proved he can beat Kirby Smart (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023).
- The Big 12: Either flip the close games around … or go with the money.
- The ACC has to be won by either Clemson (2011, 2015-20, 2022, 2024) or a team that beat Clemson in the regular season (2012-14, 2021, 2023, 2025).
- Best Group of Six champ: The best team to schedule multiple power-conference opponents wins.
- At-Large Bids: Six teams from the Way-Too-Early Top 25 and a team that had a losing record last season.
After reviewing the criteria, Connelly concluded that the Sooners will not return to the playoff in 2026. This decision comes despite Oklahoma returning star quarterback John Mateer, who threw for 2,885 yards, 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Additionally, he ran for 431 yards and scored eight touchdowns.
Oklahoma’s return to the CFP after a 6-7 season in 2024 was one of the more surprising storylines of the expanded field era. However, Connelly’s early outlook suggests that lightning may not strike twice for the Sooners.
While Mateer provides Oklahoma with an experienced dual-threat quarterback, Connelly’s criteria place far greater emphasis on conference trajectory and proven postseason success. In an SEC landscape dominated by Smart and programs with sustained playoff pedigrees, Oklahoma falls short of the model’s benchmarks.
That doesn’t mean a return is impossible, but it does highlight the margin for error the Sooners face in 2026. With expectations rising and the SEC offering little forgiveness, Oklahoma will need significant growth across the roster to reenter the playoff conversation next season.
Related: Brent Venables, Oklahoma Predicted to Land 4-Star Safety in 2027 Recruiting Class
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jan 31, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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