Analyst says if fans aren't thinking College Football Playoff for Tennessee in 2026 then you need to 'figure your life out'
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The Tennessee Vols got hit with a big dose of rat poison this week.
Most analysts don’t have high expectations for the Volunteers in 2026.
After going 8–5 last season, Tennessee has all but vanished from major College Football Playoff predictions heading into the 2026 season.
On3’s JD PicKell, however, thinks Vols fans need to be thinking playoff this fall — specifically if quarterback Joey Aguilar is granted another season of eligibility (there’s optimism Aguilar will win his battle against the NCAA, but it’s far from a guarantee).
JD PicKell thinks Tennessee could be flirting with a College Football Playoff berth in 2026
PicKell pointed out this week that Tennessee could finally break out of the cycle its been in for the last five seasons — bad defense and average offense one season, great offense and bad defense the next season.
The On3 analyst believes if Aguilar returns in 2026, and if new Vols defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is able to quickly install his scheme, then Tennessee could finally have a great offense and defense in the same season.
“If this happens (Aguilar returning in 2026) and you’re a Tennessee fan, how should you feel?” said PicKell. “If you’re not thinking College Football Playoff with the SEC’s leading passer back in the fold for you in 2026, you’ve got to go backpack through the Smoky Mountains and figure your life out a little bit.
“This is one of those moves where it could actually, for the first time in a long time, as a Tennessee fan, get you off the seesaw. Which has been great defense, average offense. Good defense, not so great offense. Sucky offense, good defense. Great defense, average offense. You’ve been on that seesaw for a while here.”
“If the offense is going to do what they did last year and score 40 points a game, can [they] just be a little bit better than (allowing) 30 points a game?” continued PicKell. “Can [they] be in the 25 points a game allowed territory? Because if that’s happening, now Tennessee is flirting with a College Football Playoff berth. Maybe they’re making it happen.
“Literally, every single big game you have on your schedule, outside of Texas A&M, is at home. Literally every single one. On top of that, you play one Power-4 opponent that returns both the play caller and the quarterback from a year ago. Everyone else has a variation of a different play caller and quarterback. That one is Texas, by the way (that returns the same QB and play caller). And yes, you get them at home. If the defense can progress, which is what this is all about, the College Football Playoff is very realistic. Very realistic. Because [Tennessee] played five one score games last year. [They] went 2-3 in those one score games. With five one score games, Tennessee was flirting with a playoff berth (in 2025). [If Tennessee] has a couple of those break a different way and they go 4-1, we’re having different conversation.”
It’s certainly far too early to make a playoff prediction for the Vols (predictions, of course, mean nothing — especially in February). But PicKell is right. This Tennessee team could have a real chance to make the playoff in 2026. If Aguilar returns, and if Tennessee’s players can quickly pick up Knowles’ defense, then the Vols will start the season with as good of a chance as anyone in the SEC to reach the playoff. There are more talented rosters in the SEC, but the Vols still have more than enough talent to be a playoff team this fall (as long as Tennessee can stay mostly heathy).
College football is as unpredictable as ever, but the Volunteers certainly have the ingredients to make a playoff run happen — Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel just has to figure out the right recipe.
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This story was originally published by A to Z Sports on Feb 7, 2026, where it first appeared in the Nashville section. Add A to Z Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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