NCAA Bracket Projections Week 15: Bubble Pressure & Key Games

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NCAA Bracket Projections Week 15: Bubble Pressure & Key Games

After a fantastic week of games with plenty of showdowns that went down to the buzzer, the seeds for the NCAA Tournament are starting to shift a bit. 

All of a sudden, teams like Wisconsin, Texas, Cal, New Mexico, and Missouri are in a brighter spotlight. Meanwhile, up top, with UConn, Illinois, Gonzaga, and Duke losing, this just got interesting in the battle for the highest seeds.

Here are our bracket projections for the NCAA Tournament seeds going into Week 15.

Projected NCAA Tournament Field by Seed

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) reacts in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center.© Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Most Important Games This Week

  • Monday: Arizona at Kansas
  • Tuesday: Purdue at Nebraska
  • Wednesday: Florida at Georgia
  • Thursday: Hofstra at Charleston
  • Friday: Michigan State at Wisconsin
  • Saturday: Kansas at Iowa State
  • Sunday: Indiana at Illinois

Projected First Four Out

  • Baylor (Big 12)
  • Cal (ACC)
  • New Mexico (MWest)
  • Seton Hall (Big East)

    Projected Last Four In

    aka, these four will probably be knocked out once the conference tournament weirdness kicks in

    • Miami (ACC)
    • Ohio State (Big Ten)
    • San Diego State (MWest)
    • Texas (SEC)

    Four Teams That Might Blow Up the Bubble

    aka, these four are projected out teams that might end up getting in after going on a splashy run in their respective conference tournaments

    • Baylor (Big 12)
    • Boise State (MWest)
    • George Mason (A-10)
    • Virginia Tech (ACC)

    True Bubble Teams

    aka, these four are probably closer to being in than we have them

    • Cal (ACC)
    • Missouri (SEC)
    • New Mexico (MWest)
    • Oklahoma State (Big 12)

    Projected 16 Seeds

    All Seeds In Alphabetical Order 

    Austin Peay
    (ASun)
    Navy (Patriot)

    Teams in Play-In Games
    Howard (MEAC)
    LIU (NEC)
    UT Martin (OVC)
    Vermont (America East)

    Projected 15 Seeds

    Austin Peay (ASun)
    Marist (MAAC)
    North Dakota State (Summit)
    Portland State (Big Sky) 

    Projected 14 Seeds

    California Baptist (WAC)
    ETSU (SoCon)
    Troy (Sun Belt)
    UC Irvine (Big West)

    Projected 13 Seeds

    High Point (Big South)
    Liberty (CUSA)
    Oakland (Horizon)
    UNC Wilmington (Coastal)

    Projected 12 Seeds

    Belmont (MVC)
    McNeese (Southland)
    Miami University (MAC)
    Yale (Ivy)

    Projected 11 Seeds

    Santa Clara (West Coast)
    Tulsa (American)

    Teams In Play-In Games
    Miami (ACC)
    Ohio State (Big Ten)
    San Diego State (MWest)
    Texas (SEC)

    Projected 10 Seeds

    Georgia (SEC)
    SMU (ACC)
    UCLA (Big Ten)
    USC (Big Ten)

    Projected 9 Seeds

    Saint Mary’s (West Coast)
    Texas A&M (SEC)
    UCF (Big 12)
    Wisconsin (Big Ten)

    Projected 8 Seeds

    Clemson (ACC)
    Indiana (Big Ten)
    Utah State (MWest)
    Villanova (Big East)

    Projected 7 Seeds

    Auburn (SEC)
    Kentucky (SEC)
    NC State (ACC)
    Tennessee (SEC)

    Projected 6 Seeds

    Arkansas (SEC)
    Louisville (ACC)
    Saint Louis (A-10)
    St. John’s (Big East)

    Projected 5 Seeds

    Alabama (SEC)
    BYU
    (Big 12)
    Iowa (Big Ten)
    Texas Tech (Big 12)

    Projected 4 Seeds

    North Carolina (ACC)
    Purdue (Big Ten)
    Vanderbilt (SEC)
    Virginia (ACC)

    Projected 3 Seeds

    Florida (SEC)
    Gonzaga (West Coast)
    Kansas (Big 12)
    Michigan State (Big Ten)

    Projected 2 Seeds

    Houston (Big 12)
    Illinois (Big Ten)
    Iowa State (Big 12)
    Nebraska (Big Ten)

    Projected 1 Seeds

    Arizona (Big 12)
    Duke (ACC)
    Michigan (Big Ten)
    UConn (Big East)

    Related: NCAA Tournament Watch: Who’s In, Out, & on the Bubble (Week 15)

    This story was originally published by College Football News on Feb 8, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Basketball section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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