Who Will Be the Next Texas Tech? 4 Teams That Can Make a Run at the CFP in 2026
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Cinderella stories are more a staple of March Madness than the College Football Playoff. The former tournament has come to be known for its iconic upsets while the latter has largely been dominated by the same name brands since its inception. However, recent changes to the college sports landscape has seen some sleepers realize their postseason aspirations.
The transfer portal, NIL and revenue sharing allowed for Arizona State and Indiana to break through to the 12-team field in 2024 — and the Hoosiers finished the job the following season. Under-the-radar college football contenders have a way of making themselves known ahead of time.
Take Texas Tech, for example. The Red Raiders were identified as a candidate to break through to the CFP around this time last year with a stacked transfer portal class and a light schedule. That combination bore fruit as coach Joey McGuire’s team indeed dominated the Big 12, winning the conference to punch a ticket to the playoff. Texas Tech went from good (8-5 in 2024) to great (12-2 in 2025) by spending to add finishing pieces and retain in-house talent. And that ascent was somewhat predictable thanks to a forgiving regular-season schedule.
Athlon Sports identified four teams that fit that mold. Don’t be surprised if these teams are in the mix for a CFP spot come December.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions are nobody’s idea of an underdog with four national championships and a recent College Football Playoff trip. Even in a season where seemingly everything went wrong, Penn State still finished with a winning record. But a new era is about to begin in Happy Valley, where a transfer-laden team led by a new head coach appears poised to outperform expectations.
Former Iowa State coach Matt Campbell was hired late in the cycle to replace longtime coach James Franklin, who was fired in October. There was a mass roster exodus when the transfer portal opened with plenty of players following Franklin to Virginia Tech. Campbell responded by signing 38 players out of the portal, more than half of whom played for him in Ames.
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Bringing over experienced players such as quarterback Rocco Becht, running back Carson Hansen and linebacker Caleb Bacon from Iowa State should vault the Nittany Lions back into the upper half of the Big Ten. The schedule is what could put them over the top. Penn State doesn’t play a single team that reached the CFP in 2025, avoiding Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon. The nonconference schedule is easy, almost to a fault, and only USC, Michigan and Washington pose a serious threat in the regular season. There’s a path to 10-2 for the Nittany Lions if all goes according to plan.
Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals are quietly the third-winningest team in the ACC behind SMU and Miami since coach Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater in 2023. But Louisville has been unable to get over the hump. Might this be the year the Cards break through? The Mustangs and Hurricanes are once again their stiffest competition, but SMU visits Louisville this fall and Miami isn’t on the schedule. The toughest game for Brohm’s group is likely the opener against Ole Miss in Nashville, which won’t affect the Cards’ standing in the ACC but could be a boon for their résumé if they pull off the upset.
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Louisville’s biggest offseason win was keeping the backfield duo of Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown together. However, the rest of the offense is a work in progress. The Cardinals are counting on another transfer quarterback in Lincoln Kienholz (Ohio State) to produce right away. The good news is that Brohm has a strong track record of getting the most out of newcomers, and he brought in new weapons and protectors in the portal to build around his newest signal-caller.
An up-and-down defense was what doomed Louisville down the stretch during a three-game skid in November. Personnel changes on that side of the ball were made in the offseason to prevent a similar collapse. The Cardinals’ schedule is front-loaded with their toughest games, but only two of their final seven opponents finished with a winning record in 2025. If they hold their own in September, they could keep rolling all the way into the CFP conversation.
Houston Cougars
The Cougars had the best campaign of any team on this list, winning double-digit games for the first time since 2021 in Willie Fritz’s second season in charge. Still, Houston stumbled in November and finished a step behind Texas Tech and BYU, who faced off in the Big 12 title game. With rare roster stability, can the Cougars close the gap in 2026?
Houston brings back quarterback Conner Weigman and leading receiver Amare Thomas. Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle also reunites with running back Makhi Hughes, whom he coached at Tulane in 2023. With that core, along with some other portal pickups, the offense is in good shape. And while there is more turnover on the other side of the ball, Fritz can be trusted to get the most out of the defense.
As for the schedule, it could be easier. The Cougars again face the Red Raiders, the team that handed them their first loss last season, and this time it’s on the road. A road trip to Utah could also prove tricky. And Oklahoma State, which projects to be one of the most-improved teams in the nation, will pay a visit to H-Town. But outside of those three games, the rest of Houston’s Big 12 schedule and nonconference slate should offer little resistance. With an upset or two, the Cougars could crash the party and push for a spot in the conference championship game.
NC State Wolfpack
It will take quite a leap for the Wolfpack to realize any postseason aspirations beyond a bowl game. They rank in the bottom half of Athlon’s early ACC predictions and are the only team mentioned to not appear in our way-too-early top 25. That’s because they lost their leading rusher, receiver, tackler and top offensive lineman to the portal or graduation. So why might NC State be able to make some noise in 2026 despite all that turnover? Because they hung onto their up-and-coming quarterback, who might be able to help them navigate a surprisingly easy schedule.
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CJ Bailey decided to stick around for another season despite the turnover around him. After a promising true freshman campaign, he took the next step as a sophomore. While Bailey shined statistically, he struggled against some of his team’s toughest competition. Further improvement can be expected for his junior year, and the Wolfpack crucially avoid Miami, SMU, Clemson and Virginia Tech next season.
Louisville is the only team ranked in Athlon’s top 25 that NC State has to play, and even that game is at home. Other tests against Virginia, Vanderbilt and Duke will likely be against lesser versions of teams that excelled in 2025. It’s imperative that the Wolfpack hit on their portal haul considering the talent they lost, but the schedule makes a trip to Charlotte feel like a possibility. Remember, this time last year no one was picking Duke over Virginia in the ACC championship.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Mar 5, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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