How do the Big Ten Championship tiebreaker rules work? What the rules mean for Ohio State

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No. 1 Ohio State (No. 1 in CFP rankings) has a clear path to the Big Ten Championship game, but could be at risk if history repeats itself.

Sitting at 9-0, Ohio State has games against Big Ten opponents UCLA and Rutgers before playing in the most important regular-season game in the country. While bragging rights are a large part of the stakes, a Michigan win against Ohio State could potentially knock the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship game, assuming Indiana wins out the rest of its regular season schedule.

In 2024, losses to Oregon and Michigan prevented Ohio State from making the conference championship game outright. Instead, the Buckeyes earned an at-large bid as the No. 8 seed in the College Football Playoff.

Tiebreaker rules went into effect to determine the Big Ten championship opponents in 2024; despite sharing identical records, Penn State played in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game over Indiana due to a Penn State victory over the Hoosiers in the regular season.

Here’s a look at how the Big Ten tiebreaker rules work and what they imply for Ohio State in 2025:

How do the Big Ten Championship tiebreaker rules work?

If two teams are tied in the Big Ten standings, the tiebreaker steps are as follows until a determination is made (via Big Ten website):

• A. The tied teams will be compared based on head-to-head matchups during the regular season.
• B. The tied teams will be compared based on record against all common conference opponents.
• C. The tied teams will be compared based on record against common opponents with the best conference record and proceeding through the common conference opponents based on their order of finish within the conference standings. The tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents.
• D. The representative will be chosen based on the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
• E. The representative will be chosen by random draw among the tied teams conducted by the commissioner or designee.

What do the Big Ten tiebreaker rules mean for Ohio State?

After week 11, Ohio State is 6-0 in Big Ten play (9-0 overall). The other undefeated Big Ten team is Indiana, which is 7-0 in the Big Ten (10-0 overall) and has a Week 13 bye. If Ohio State and Indiana win out, they are guaranteed to meet in the conference championship game.

However, things shift if Ohio State or Indiana loses one of their remaining regular-season games. While Ohio State’s next two regular-season opponents, Rutgers and UCLA, have a combined 5-8 record against the Big Ten and are less likely to knock off the Buckeyes, all eyes would be on the Ohio State-Michigan game. The Buckeyes avoid being in the tiebreaker mix as long as they win out.

Indiana finishes its regular season with Wisconsin and Purdue; the two opponents have a combined 1-12 record against the Big Ten.

What happens to the Big Ten Championship if Ohio State loses to Michigan?

Assuming that Michigan and Ohio State win against their next two opponents, the Buckeyes and Wolverines would be separated by one game in Big Ten play, with tiebreaker implications on the line if Michigan upsets Ohio State yet again.

If Michigan beats Ohio State in this scenario, as well as Oregon winning out (8-1, 5-1 in Big Ten), there would be a three-way tie for the second spot in the Big Ten championship between Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State. Per rule A (head-to-head record), Michigan would hold the tiebreaker over Ohio State by beating the Buckeyes on Nov. 29, thus preventing Ohio State from competing in the conference championship game.

Michigan and Oregon do not play this year. However, Oregon would hold a tiebreaker over Michigan if the Ducks beat USC on Nov. 22. Oregon would possess the tiebreaker per rule B (record against common conference opponents) because Michigan’s lone Big Ten loss came against USC on Oct. 11. Michigan’s most likely path to the Big Ten championship game results from a win over Ohio State and an Oregon loss in any of the next three games.

The Wolverines have a 5-1 Big Ten record (7-2 overall) with Northwestern (5-4, 3-3 in Big Ten) and Maryland (4-5, 1-5 in Big Ten) left on their schedule before rivalry week.

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: How Big Ten tiebreaker rules work, what they mean for Ohio state

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