2025 Week 12 Preview: South Florida Bulls @ Navy Midshipmen

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2025 Week 12 Preview: South Florida Bulls @ Navy Midshipmen

Game notes

  • Time and date: Saturday, November 15 at 12:00 p.m. ET
  • Network: ESPN2
  • Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, MD
  • Spread: South Florida (-9.5)
  • Over/under: 65.5
  • All-time series: Navy leads, 3-2
  • Last meeting: Navy 28, South Florida 7 — November 9, 2024
  • Current streak: Navy, 1 (2024)

Setting the scene

It’s separation Saturday in Annapolis, MD. There are three weeks remaining in the American Conference title race before two teams are pitted against one another the first week of December.

South Florida (7-2, 4-1 American) and Navy (7-2, 5-1 American) are two contenders in a congested field which includes five teams with exactly one conference loss. The Bulls control their own destiny for their first-ever American Conference Championship participant, fresh off receiving a No. 24 ranking from the College Football Playoff committee. Navy can unseat USF from the rankings and win a critical tiebreaker at home, where it is 5-0 this year.

The stakes are heavy Saturday in Annapolis between two teams that have never won a conference championship in their histories.

South Florida Bulls outlook

South Florida warranted a ranking in both the AP Poll and the CFP top 25, and for good reason. The Bulls are eviscerating opponents left and right, collecting six of their seven wins by at least 27 points. South Florida stumbled in a heartbreaking defeat to Memphis on Oct. 25, squandering a 14-point fourth quarter lead to lose at the buzzer, but Alex Golesh’s team recovered swimmingly with a 55-23 decimation of UTSA in a game that was 45-10 at halftime.

As evidenced by that UTSA score, the Bulls can score and they can score fast. Golesh’s high-tempo offense is rattling opponents on a weekly basis, and the unit consistently produces explosive plays. South Florida has mastered its scheme, ranking fifth in the FBS in scoring offense at 42.0 points per game and seventh in total offense at 485 yards per game.

Quarterback Byrum Brown is on a historic stretch, throwing for 200+ yards, rushing for 80+ yards, and contributing a passing and rushing touchdown in 5-straight games. The dual-threat star is doing it efficiently too, completing 14-of-15 passes in last week’s domination of the Roadrunners. Brown is significantly reducing his sack rate behind a sturdy offensive line, and he’s putting up his best rushing numbers to date, averaging 117 rushing yards across his last five starts.

One of the biggest differences between 2024 USF and 2025 USF is the wide receiver talent. Even without Chas Nimrod, the Bulls are thriving on vertical shots in 1-on-1 coverage. Keshaun Singleton and Jeremiah Koger average 17.4 and 18.7 yards per catch, respectively, each tallying five touchdowns in breakout seasons. Nimrod, who racks up 20.3 yards per reception in this explosive offense, could return Saturday to complete a dangerous big-play receiving trio.

The running backs provide a similar level of explosiveness with Nykahi Davneport accruing 7.1 yards per carry and Sam Franklin earning 6.8. The two combine for three 50+ yard runs in the last two games alone, showcasing their breakaway speed on a regular basis.

The offense is electrifying, but South Florida is suddenly a CFP contender due to defense. It’s not all fixed as the Bulls rank fifth-to-last in the FBS in passing yards surrendered per game at 276, but they excel in other areas. South Florida is highly effective against the run, letting up 3.2 yards per carry and 110 per game with linebackers Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler as the chief enforcers. The star linebackers combine for 144 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, and five forced fumbles as likely all-conference selections.

Speaking of forced fumbles, producing turnovers is an identity of this defense. The Bulls scored their third and fourth defensive touchdowns of the year last week, and they rank seventh in the FBS with 19 takeaways. Jarvis Lee contributed greatly to this effort last week, jarring loose a fumble to continue a spectacular season. Lee has 10.5 tackles for loss operating from a nickel position, picking off two passes and forcing two fumbles as one of the Bulls’ most versatile defenders.

Navy Midshipmen outlook

Navy started 7-0 for the first time since 1978, but the Midshipmen’s final five games are a drastic step up in difficulty from their initial seven. They don’t have a win over a team currently above .500, but Navy has a shot for quality wins down the stretch. It already faltered the last two weeks at North Texas and Notre Dame, and now South Florida, Memphis, and Navy loom to conclude the regular season slate.

Last Saturday’s Notre Dame was doomed from the start as the Midshipmen operated without the anchor of their offense. Heisman caliber quarterback Blake Horvath missed the game due to an upper-body injury suffered late at North Texas, but the senior could be slated to return in this pivotal conference tilt. Horvath rides a six-game streak of producing at least 110 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown, and he sits 74 yards away from reaching 1,000 for the second-straight year. He is the nation’s leading rusher at quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he lacks in the passing game. In fact, Horvath delivered 339 passing yards and three touchdowns on a 20-of-26 showing against Air Force back in October.

One reason Navy’s passing offense can explode can be defined by the number 22. Eli Heidenreich dons that jersey, and he can often be located downfield expanding the horizons of Navy’s option-centric offense. The all-time leading receiver in program history, Heidenreich has 595 receiving yards to his name this year, as well as four of the team’s seven receiving touchdowns. No other Navy receiving option even has a fourth of his receiving production, and he’s the overwhelming dominant threat when the Midshipmen test the air.

Heidenreich is also one of five 300-yard rushers on the team, displaying versatility in the offense. Other premier rushers include running back Brandon Chatman and fullback Alex Tecza, both vital components in leading Navy’s FBS-best rushing offense at 305 yards per game. Overall, the offense is thriving. Navy averages 32.0 points per game — the highest mark by the program since 2019.

The defense isn’t succeeding to the same level, giving up 26.8 points per game and ranking 95th in yards allowed. There is star talent within the unit, as defensive tackle Landon Robinson commands as much attention as any defensive tackle in the country. An extremely athletic force on the interior, Robinson has 47 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and 5.5 sacks, but Navy needs more contributions in other areas, particularly on the back end. The Midshipmen are 116th in passing defense, yielding 254 aerial yards per game — prone to allowing explosive plays over the top.

Navy seeks more havoc from its defense which has only picked off four passes all season. That is perhaps the most stark contrast from the 2024 Midshipmen which intercepted 17 passes with NFL caliber talent manning the secondary. South Florida presents a slew of 6’2” and 6’3” receivers that can win one-on-one matchups, and Navy’s corners and safeties must provide substantial pushback in effort to manufacture the home upset.

Prediction

Last year’s South Florida-Navy game featured 35 total points. This year’s could feature double that, at the least. Both the Bulls and Midshipmen are stronger on the offensive side than on defense, and both teams know how to score in a hurry. The time of possession battle should be lopsided given South Florida’s hyper speed and Navy’s preference to ground the ball.

The Bulls will likely notch touchdowns on quicker 3-to-5 play drives while Navy will take the more methodical route to the end zone. Still, led by mobile quarterbacks, both teams should score early and often in this track meet style game, outplaying the defenses more often than not. In the end, South Florida presents the more explosive and versatile offense, securing a massive road victory and inching one step closer to the College Football Playoff.

Prediction: South Florida 45, Navy 28

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