Penn State @ Michigan State Preview

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The 2025 edition of the Battle for the Land Grant Trophy might as well be called the Dissapointment Bowl. Your 3-6 Michigan State Spartans will play host to the 3-6 Penn State Nittany Lions at 3:30 this Saturday afternoon for Senior Day. Both teams will be in search of their first Big Ten conference win of the season, and to stop each team’s respective six-game losing streak. Let’s preview this surprisingly intriguing trophy game.

Penn State At a Glance 

After starting the season at 3-0 with wins over Nevada, FIU, and Villanova; and climbing to as high as 2nd overall in the AP Poll, it has been quite the fall from glory for the Nittany Lions. A double overtime loss to Oregon in front of a white-out crowd in Happy Valley spiraled into a pair of upset losses versus UCLA and Northwestern. Promptly following the one-point defeat at the hands of the Wildcats, 11-year Head Coach James Franklin was relieved of his duties, and assistant Head Coach Terry Smith took over at the helm. Smith has not fared much better, going 0-3 as the interim leader, albeit, in some very tough matchups. Penn State again lost by a singular point on the road at Kinnick Stadium against Iowa, hung with #1 Ohio State for a half, and pushed #2 Indiana to the edge, before eventually falling in overtime. The bottom line? PSU is a team that while falling well short of pre-season expectations, remains one of the most talented teams in the Big Ten and have competed with just about everyone on their schedule. Now sitting at 3-6 overall, Penn State finds itself searching for stability and an end to their current losing streak as the season winds down. The good news for Nittany Lions fans is that they still have a shot at bowl eligibility with a far more winnable final three games of the year. 

PSU Offense 

Another big story of 2025 for Penn State is the loss of QB Drew Allar to injury. The senior QB’s season ended with a broken ankle at Northwestern, and he has since been replaced by Redshirt Freshman signal caller Ethan Grunkemeyer. “Grunk” is 64-98 with 562 yards, a pair of touchdowns, and 4 interceptions to this point, but it is worth noting that he has steadily increased his output in each game behind center. In his first start against Iowa, the freshman threw for only 93 yards, but increased that number to 145 versus Ohio State, before eclipsing the 200 mark against a stingy Indiana defense with 219. On the outside, Penn State does not have a particularly strong WR room. Their leading receiver Trebor Pena has 331 yards on 32 grabs, and next best ballcatcher Devonte Ross is sitting at under 300 yards with 281 on 23 receptions. For reference, Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly have 554 and 529 yards, respectively. 

The real firepower behind what was predicted to be a dangerous Penn State offense comes from the run game. Standout RBs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton both chose to return to Happy Valley for the 2025 campaign, and the two have already combined for over 1,000 yards on the ground, with 736 coming from Allen and 363 on the legs of Singleton. The Spartan front seven will have their hands full stopping the run against a rock solid offensive line. 

That being said, as was pointed out in O’s 6Q article, the Nittany Lions found more offensive success against Indiana a week ago by way of upping the amount of downfield passes. While Grunkemeyer has a ways to go in terms of accuracy, the threat of the vertical passing attack was able to better open up that potent run game for Allen and Singleton. Overall, the key for MSU and Joe Rossi’s defense will be stopping the run on 1st and 2nd down, and getting pressure on Grunkemeyer in obvious passing situations.

PSU Defense 

Inconsistency has plagued the Penn State defense in 2025, as new Defensive Coordinator and 2024 National Champion with Ohio State, Jim Knowles, has taken over. Going into the season, this Nittany Lion unit was projected to be one of the best in the nation. To this point, PSU has only recorded 17 sacks (10th in the B1G), 6 interceptions (8th in the B1G), and has allowed 24.4 points per game (13th in the B1G). Not exactly championship-level statistics. Individually, the Lions are led by UNC transfer Amare Williams at middle linebacker, who has 67 tackles and 2 sacks himself. Safety Zakee Wheatley is next on the list with 61 tackles. 

Despite their record, the secondary has shown promise at times. Penn State has only allowed over 200 yards through the air against Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon- all top 10 teams. However, they have given up over 100 rushing yards in seven of nine games this season. 

The Nittany Lion defense is coming off of their most encouraging outing of the year, holding Heisman-candidate Fernando Mendoza and the high-flying Indiana Hoosier offense to only 27 points. If Knowles’ 4-2-5 unit can continue to build on the promise shown last Saturday, it could be a long afternoon for OC Brian Lindgren and the MSU offense. The Spartans will find it absolutely necessary to run the ball impactfully against Penn State if they want a shot at bringing the Land Grant Trophy back to East Lansing. 

PSU Special Teams 

Placekicker Ryan Barker is yet to miss an extra point, sitting at 31-31 heading into Week 12. Barker is also 4-5 on kicks coming from 40+ yards, and will give PSU the advantage in the kicking game. The Nittany Lion punter is none other than the 6’6” 292lb Gabriel Nwosu, donning #99 and looking like a defensive tackle. His staggering build has helped him to a 46.0 yard average on each punt, only three yards and change behind the nation’s punt yardage leader with 49.7- Ryan Eckley. In the return game, look out for backup RB Corey Smith along with Safety King Mack, neither of whom have recorded a kick return TD, but each have over 120 special teams yards. 

Final Thoughts 

The all-time series between these two teams sits at 19-18-1 in favor of Penn State. Not only is this a chance to even up the score with the folks in Happy Valley, it is yet another opportunity for Jonathan Smith to win his first Big Ten game of 2025. However, this Penn State team is a far more talented team at most positions, and will provide MSU with a tough task to send the Spartan seniors home happy. PSU has shown progress in the past couple weeks since the firing of James Franklin, and the Nittany Lions look primed to get their first conference win. On the home team’s side, the Spartans stumble back home after back-to-back soul crushing losses at the hands of um and Minnesota. Will the monotone Jonathan Smith have his guys ready to play in front of what will be far from a sellout crowd for this Disappointment Bowl? I have my doubts. But who knows. Michigan State Football needs some positive news this week, and maybe the players can rally and make a largely apathetic fanbase (that has mainly moved onto basketball season) proud of their effort. Vegas has set the line at Penn State -7.5, which feels like the right number in this showdown of two coaches named Smith. Make your predictions below in the comments- can MSU prove to be the premier Land Grant University in the land? 

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