Penn State at Michigan State: Game Preview

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The Nittany Lions and Spartans are both seeking their first conference win while battling for the Land Grant Trophy.

Penn State (3-6, 0-6) vs. Michigan State (3-6, 0-6)

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

The Betting Line: Penn State -7.5

TV: CBS, 3:30 p.m., Brad Nessler (play-by-play), Gary Danielson (analyst), Jenny Dell (sideline)

Weather: A high of 61 with showers expected in the afternoon, with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s in the evening.

COACHES:

Terry Smith (Interim):

PENN STATE RECORD: 0-3, 1st Year

OVERALL RECORD: 0-3, 1st Year

VS. MICHIGAN STATE: 0-0

Jonathan Smith:

MICHIGAN STATE RECORD: 8-13, 2nd Year

OVERALL RECORD: 42-48, 8th Season

VS. PENN STATE: 0-0

FUN FACTS

Nicolas Singleton became the first Big Ten running back with 5,000 career rushing yards and 50 touchdowns since Jonathan Taylor accomplished the feat with Wisconsin in 2019…Kaytron Allen surpassed Evan Royster for most career rushing attempts in program history…Penn State and Michigan State will be playing in the 29th Land Grant Trophy game…the Nittany Lions lead the all-time series with the Spartans 19-18-1

MICHIGAN STATE OFFENSE VS. PENN STATE DEFENSE

The Spartans recently underwent a change in signal callers, benching long-time starter Aidan Chiles with freshman Alessio Milivojevic. However, don’t be surprised if the more athletic Chiles still sees the field, considering the Nittany Lions struggles against mobile quarterbacks.

Milivojevic impressed in his first start against Minnesota, throwing for 311 yards and a touchdown on 20-of-28 passing. He also did not throw any interceptions despite heavy pressure as he was sacked seven times.

Nick Marsh has been the steadiest and most explosive receiving threat for the Spartans. At 6-3, 203 lbs., he has the size and athleticism to cause match-up problems in the secondary. He has 46 catches for 554 yards and five scores on the season, and is coming off back-to-back games with 75 receiving yards. Senior Omar Kelly is also a threat, and is coming off an 8-catch, 94 yard performance against the Gophers.

The Spartans also like to run between the tackles with a steady dose of power back Makhi Frazier. Frazier was unavailable in the last game against Minnesota, but had his best game of the season the previous week against Michigan with 109 yards on 14 carries. Elijah Tau-Tolliver had a standout performance in his place against the Gophers, with 127 rushing yards on just 11 carries. The senior just missed the 1,000-yard mark in 2024 with Sacramento State before transferring to East Lansing.

Penn State’s defense had an incredible performance against a high-powered Indiana offense. However, allowing a late score has been an ongoing issue with the defense in several near-misses throughout the year. Hopefully, the effort can be replicated for the final three games of the season.

PENN STATE OFFENSE VS. MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE

Ethan Grunkemeyer has shown notable progress over the course of his first three starts following the season-ending injury to Drew Allar. The redshirt freshman has appeared more comfortable running the offense with each performance, which has been impressive considering he has faced three of the nation’s best defenses to begin his career. Grunkemeyer capped off his first three starts with his best performance against a stingy Hoosiers secondary, connecting on 22 of 31 attempts for 219 passing yards. He also showed he’s capable of stretching the field, something that has been missing from the Nittany Lions offense for far too long.

Freshman wide receiver Koby Howard has finally seen the field in recent weeks after receiving buzz throughout camp for his playmaking abilities. He had his first multiple catch game against Indiana with two catches for 28 yards. Expect his role to increase further during the last three weeks. Saturday also marked the best game of the season for Nicholas Singleton, who had a hat trick of scores that included a shifty 19-yard touchdown reception that gave the Nittany Lions a temporary fourth quarter lead.

Michigan State’s defense has been a far cry from the stellar units of the Mark Dantonio era. The Spartans are allowing more than 31 points per game, and are in the bottom half nationally against both the run and pass.

Linebacker Jordan Hall has been by far the biggest playmaker for the Spartans defense. His team-leading 70 tackles are 20 ahead of the second-leader. He also has 3.5 TFLs, two sacks and three forced fumbles on the year.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Spartans kicker Martin Connington is 9-for-13 on the season with a long of 50 yards. He is just one-of-four in field goal attempts of 40 yards or more, which could make it more likely for Michigan State to roll the dice on fourth downs rather than attempting long field goals. The Spartans have a future NFL punter in Ryan Eckly, who leads the nation with 49.7 yards per punt – nearly a full yard more than anyone else in college football.

PREDICTION

Penn State-28, Michigan State-14

It’s going to come down to how much fight is left in these Lions. Michigan State has the advantage of coming off a bye week, while Penn State will be going on the road after an emotional loss to the #2 team. This team hasn’t quit yet despite all the things that have continued to go wrong this year. There’s no reason to believe they will start now.

Ethan Grunkemeyer’s progress has been impressive throughout his first three starts, and now he finally faces a secondary that isn’t one of the best in the nation – and far from it. The defensive front also looked like the nasty version we are used to that harassed a Heisman frontrunner and limited the nation’s top scoring offense. Now they can tee of against an offense that has far more trouble protecting the quarterback.

Those two things alone are a recipe for some early big plays that will fire up the team, and allow them to take their anger out on the Spartans. After two long months, the Nittany Lions finally get back in the win column.

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