By the Numbers: Iowa v. USC

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This weekend marks the first regular-season meeting between Iowa and USC since 1976, when the Trojans absolutely drubbed the Hawkeyes 55-0 at the Coliseum. That’s a memory most Iowa fans have likely already forgotten, but the most recent meeting—the 2019 Holiday Bowl—provided some much-needed revenge. The Hawkeyes demolished USC 49-24 behind Ihmir Smith-Marsette’s three-touchdown performance, a game that feels like it happened in a completely different era of Iowa football.

Iowa’s all-time record against USC stands at 4-7, with the Hawkeyes’ two regular-season wins coming on the road in Los Angeles (1950 and 1961). History suggests the Coliseum hasn’t been kind to Iowa, but then again, this 2025 team has made a habit of doing things the hard way. Let’s see what the numbers have to say.

Offense

Iowa – 309.1 ypg (133.2 passing, 175.9 rushing), 29.6 ppg
USC – 503.2 ypg (303.0 passing, 200.2 rushing), 39.6 ppg

ADVANTAGE: USC

This isn’t even close on paper, but then again, it wasn’t close last week on paper either. The Trojans boast the 2nd-ranked offense in all of FBS, averaging over 500 yards per game and nearly 40 points. Iowa, meanwhile, sits at a pedestrian 122nd nationally in total offense, generating just over 300 yards per game. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava is putting together a Davey O’Brien Award-caliber season, and wide receiver Makai Lemon has been absolutely lethal with 937 yards and seven touchdowns through nine games.

The Trojans convert third downs at an absurd 51.9% clip, ranking 5th nationally. That’s a recipe for extended drives and tired defenses—exactly what Iowa doesn’t need after watching Oregon gash them for 261 rushing yards last week. USC’s red zone efficiency (93.3%, 11th nationally) means when they get inside the 20, they’re finishing drives.

For Iowa, Mark Gronowski has been steady if unspectacular through the air, but his legs have kept the Hawkeyes in games. Kamari Moulton has emerged as a legitimate threat in the backfield with 522 rushing yards, but asking this offense to keep pace with USC’s explosive attack is probably not realistic.

Defense

Iowa – 250.2 ypg allowed (146.7 passing, 103.6 rushing), 13.7 ppg allowed
USC – 346.8 ypg allowed (205.1 passing, 141.7 rushing), 21.8 ppg allowed

ADVANTAGE: Iowa

Phil Parker’s unit ranks 4th nationally in total defense and 5th in scoring defense, allowing just 13.7 points per game. The pass defense has been particularly stingy, giving up only 146.7 yards through the air per game and ranking 5th nationally. Iowa allows opponents just 4.3 yards per play, fourth-best in the country.

The problem? This defense just got run over by Oregon for 261 yards on the ground. That can’t happen again—not against a USC team that’s averaging 200 rushing yards per game and features physical freshman runner King Miller, who’s already racked up 636 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

USC’s defense is middling at best, ranking 48th in total defense and 43rd in scoring defense. They’ve been vulnerable through the air, allowing 205 yards passing per game. The Trojans do excel at getting after the quarterback with 24 sacks (10th nationally), but Gronowski’s mobility should help mitigate that pressure.

Special Teams

Iowa – 43.3 ypp, 77.3% FGM, 25.7 yppr, 26.0 ypkr
USC – 42.3 ypp, 93.8% FGM, 7.4 yppr, 17.3 ypkr

ADVANTAGE: Iowa

Drew Stevens isn’t having his best season, but he’s been solid since the Indiana loss. Kaden Wetjen is one of the nation’s best return specialists, and he remains a legitimate threat to flip field position or take one to the house every time he touches the ball. In a game where Iowa’s offense will struggle to move the ball, Wetjen’s ability to create short fields could be the difference. Iowa punter Rhys Dakin has been solid, averaging 43.3 yards per boot and consistently pinning opponents deep.

USC’s special teams are not to be dismissed, Ryon Sayeri is 15/16 on the year (93.8%) and punter Sam Johnson’s (not to be confused with backup QB Sam Huard) numbers are almost equal to Rhys Dakin’s (though with many fewer punts). And while their return averages are decent, they don’t have a game-breaker like Wetjen who can change field position with one play.

Numbers to Watch

1 – Xavier Nwankpa is Iowa’s defensive anchor at safety, and is third on the team with 51 tackles, and interception, and a forced fumble through nine games. The junior earned Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week honors for his performance against Penn State and has been Iowa’s most consistent tackler in the defensive backfield. Nwankpa will be critical in preventing USC’s explosive passing game from getting over the top, and his ability to read Maiava’s eyes and break on throws will be essential if Iowa wants to create turnovers.

6 – Kamari Moulton has emerged as Iowa’s leading rusher with 522 yards on the season. The running back has been a consistent presence in Iowa’s ground game, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and providing a complement to Gronowski’s rushing attack. Moulton’s 87 yards on 23 carries against Oregon showed his willingness to grind out tough yards between the tackles. Against a USC defense that’s allowing 141.7 rushing yards per game, Iowa will need Moulton to establish the run early to keep the Trojans’ defense honest.

11 – Mark Gronowski has scored a touchdown in all nine of Iowa’s games this season, the only player in the nation to do so. He leads the team with 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for third-most among FBS quarterbacks (the other three play at the Army, Navy, and Air Force, so…), and has been Iowa’s biggest weapon in the redzone. As he goes, Iowa tends to go.

14 – Jayden Maiava leads the nation with a 92.2 QBR (164.2 passer rating) and is putting together a solid season for USC. The redshirt junior has completed 66.2% of his passes for 2,614 yards, 17 touchdowns aagainst six interceptions. The first Polynesian starting quarterback in USC history, Maiava has elevated Lincoln Riley’s offense to an elite level, putting up 503.2 yards per game, second only to Tennessee. His quick release and deep ball accuracy make him a nightmare matchup for Iowa’s secondary.

18 – Makai Lemon wears #18 for USC and has been Maiava’s favorite target, racking up 937 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He’s averaging 15.4 yards per catch and is one of the most explosive receivers in the Big Ten. Lemon’s 165 all-purpose yards against Northwestern included a receiving touchdown and a rushing score. Iowa’s secondary will have their hands full trying to contain him, especially if he gets matched up one-on-one against Iowa’s corners.

23 – Eric Gentry is USC’s defensive leader, recording 61 total tackles, three sacks, and a staggering five forced fumbles through nine games. The linebacker is constantly around the ball and has been the Trojans’ most disruptive defensive player. He’ll be tasked with slowing down Gronowski’s rushing attack and will need to be disciplined in his gap assignments to prevent Iowa’s quarterback from gashing them on designed runs and scrambles.

Lines

Point Spread: USC -7
Over/Under: 49.5

Vegas is expecting points—specifically, 49.5 of them—which feels optimistic given Iowa’s offensive limitations. The implied score of USC 28.5, Iowa 21 assumes the Hawkeyes can match touchdowns with the Trojans, which I’m not convinced they can do over four quarters. USC’s offense is exponentially better than anything Iowa has faced except Indiana and Oregon, both teams that found ways to score when it mattered most.

The 7-point spread feels like the sharps trying to draw some action towards Iowa, especially given that the Hawkeyes are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games and have a knack for playing to the level of competition or, in some very frustrating cases, just below it.

I’m leaning toward the under here. Iowa’s offense isn’t explosive enough to contribute much to a high-scoring affair, and while USC can certainly put up 35-40 on its own, I’m betting Phil Parker’s defense finds a way to slow them down just enough to keep this game in the low-to-mid 40s total (especially with rain in the forecast). Iowa will doe their level best to make it ugly, grind it out, and try to win in the fourth quarter with field position and Drew Stevens’ leg. I will not be surprised if this game doesn’t even get to the 40’s, but then, we’ve seen Iowa go west and get blown out more often than not, so who knows. I’ve got a round of golf riding on this one, so let’s hope this game ends up more like the 2019 Holiday Bowl than Iowa’s last trip to LA.

As always, GO HAWKS!!!

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