Three keys to Saturday’s game between UNC Football and Wake Forest
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The Tar Heels face the rest of the Big Four to close out the season.
The North Carolina gauntlet makes its first stop in Winston-Salem in what is being billed as a defensive battle. Wake Forest earned bowl eligibility last week, so the Demon Deacons are simply focused on ending a four-game losing streak to the Tar Heels. If recent history is any indication, do not turn the game off early. The most notable trend in this series is the incredible closeness of the games — in fact, the last five consecutive meetings have been decided by a single possession.
Here are a few things to focus on when Carolina travels to the Camel City.
A Defensive Battle
This game will be an old-school, defensive slugfest. Both offenses are struggling, while the defensive units are both ranked in the top 40 nationally. In the past three weeks, Wake Forest has averaged just 12 points on offense while Carolina has averaged 21 points, and since allowing 38 points versus Clemson, the UNC defense has allowed just under 16 points per game.
A blowout 42-7 loss against Florida State has skewed Wake Forest’s defensive numbers, but the Demon Deacon defense bounced back in a big way by allowing just nine points versus Virginia.
The most interesting “strength-on-strength” matchup will be in the trenches between Wake’s rushing offense and UNC’s defensive line. Wake Forest’s offense will likely lean on running back Demond Claiborne. The senior running back was the leading offensive producer last week, gaining 75 yards on the ground. The Deacs had just 64 yards through the air against the Cavaliers.
Claiborne was Wake’s leading rusher in seven of nine games, and has at least one reception in eight of nine games.
Since allowing 134 yards on the ground versus UCF, though, the Carolina run defense has held opponents to just 75 rushing yards per game. In fact, after holding Stanford to just 36 yards on the ground last Saturday, the rush defense is ranked 14th in the nation.
If UNC can shut down Claiborne and make Wake’s offense change its game plan, it will be a long day for the Demon Deacons. While the Wake Forest passing game has struggled, Carolina’s opponents have found success through the air.
Focus on Special Teams
In a game where offensive yards will be at a premium, a special teams play could be the difference.
The Demon Deacons are one of only two teams in the ACC to have returned both a kickoff and a punt for a touchdown this season. Wake Forest ranks 18th in the nation in punt return yards and 22nd in kickoff return yards. Carlos Hernandez, Wake’s punt returner, was just named ACC Specialist of the Week after his 88-yard punt return for a touchdown last Saturday. That touchdown proved to be the game-winning score against Virginia.
Kick Returner Chris Barnes had a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown against NC State.
Despite these impressive return yards, the Deacs are 122nd in the nation in net punt yards. UNC and WF are tied for 42nd in FBS for kickoff return defense.
Working with a shorter field will be vitally important with impotent offenses, and scoring plays on special teams may propel a team to victory.
Limit (or Force) Quarterback Mistakes
With both offenses struggling, the game will likely come down to which quarterback can manage the game and, more importantly, avoid turnovers. UNC’ Gio Lopez and Wake Forest’s Robby Ashford have both struggled with decision-making in the pocket.
Both quarterbacks have five interceptions this season, with Lopez having lost two fumbles to go along with his picks. Lopez holds the edge in completion percentage, at 64% to 57%, while Ashford has 1,344 passing yards to Lopez’s 1,224.
The raw numbers appear similar, but the reasons these two quarterbacks turn the ball over differ. Ashford is the second-leading rusher for Wake Forest. This is due to a combination of planned runs and scrambles. Because he relies so heavily on his legs, though, he often tries to extend plays too long when the pocket breaks down. According to PPF, Ashford’s completion percentage and decision-making grades drop sharply when he is pressured. If the UNC defensive line can flush Ashford out of the pocket without letting him run freely, the odds of a dangerous or inaccurate pass go up considerably.
Comparatively, Lopez has been playing better, but his fumble against Stanford killed the most productive drive of the first half. Lopez is also a rhythm passer, so if Wake Forest can force him to hold the ball or cover his first read, the Tar Heel quarterback has shown his propensity for erratic decisions.
In a defensive battle, a single interception or fumble could easily decide the outcome. The quarterback who best protects the football will likely lead his team to a victory.
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