No. 17 USC vs. Iowa prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

Don’t look now but USC’s playoff hopes remain alive as the Trojans (7-2) prepare for this Saturday’s Big Ten battle against the Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3). No question if they win out that the Trojans will earn a trip to the Playoff.

The first of their final three games is a classic matchup of an elite offense taking on a stingy defense. USC’s offense averages over 500 yards per game. Iowa simply must limit possessions and they will look to do so relying on disciplined play on defense and a strong run game on offense.

Matchup to Watch: USC’s offensive line vs. Iowa’s defensive line
The Trojans’ O-line has been pushed around at times this season. The Hawkeyes’ defensive front must get that push if Iowa is to be competitive in this one.

Lets take a more in-depth look at these schools on both sides of the ball along with a few of the notable student athletes involved.

Game Details and How to watch USC vs. Iowa

• Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025
• Time: 3:30PM Eastern
• Site: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
• City: Los Angeles, CA
• TV/Streaming: BTN

Game Odds for USC vs. Iowa

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: USC Trojans (-265), Iowa Hawkeyes (+215)
• Spread: USC -7 (-112)
• Total: 49.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

USC Trojans

Head Coach: Lincoln Riley
2025 Record: 7-2
Offense Ranking: 12
Defense Ranking: 42
Strength of Schedule: 22

USC has rebounded under Lincoln Riley in 2025, sitting at 7–2 with the nation’s No. 1 offense and an overall SP+ ranking of 12th, led by a devastatingly efficient offense averaging 7.61 yards per play and 3.53 points per drive (4th). The Trojans are elite in both passing and rushing success rates (4th and 8th nationally), showing balance behind one of the few offenses ranking Top 10 in both EPA per rush (0.21) and EPA per dropback (0.40). While the defense remains inconsistent (42nd in SP+), it has taken a noticeable step forward under DC D’Anton Lynn, ranking Top 30 in finishing drives and havoc rate thanks to a disruptive front that generates a 7.9% sack rate. USC has shown the ability to handle quality opponents like Michigan and Nebraska but remains vulnerable against physical defenses such as Illinois and Notre Dame. With a 61% win probability versus Iowa and 93% against UCLA, the Trojans are favored to reach nine wins, though a looming trip to Oregon will determine whether they re‑enter the playoff fringe or settle for a strong, but incomplete season.

The USC Trojans Offense

USC’s offense is the most efficient in the country, ranking No. 1 in SP+, yards per play (7.61), EPA/play (0.32), and yards per drive (48.2), while also ranking Top 5 in both rushing (51.3%, 8th) and passing success rate (52.9%, 4th). The Trojans convert 81.0% of new down sets (6th) and dominate in standard downs (56.4% SR, 3rd), averaging an explosive 13.8 yards per successful play (10th) and scoring 5.03 points per scoring opportunity (20th). They boast an elite third-down conversion rate of 51.9% (5th) and 91.2 offensive QBR (2nd), with nearly 22% of completions going for 20+ yards (10th) behind HC Lincoln Riley’s potent system. Despite a relatively slow tempo (92nd in pace), USC creates massive chunk plays through the air (11.5 ANY/A, 9th) and after contact on the ground (3.51 YAC/rush, 8th), making them extremely difficult to contain for a full 60 minutes.

USC Player to Watch on Offense: QB Jayden Maiava

Jayden Maiava has matured into a topflight college signal caller, completing 66.2% of his passes for 2,614 yards with a 17–5 TD-INT ratio across eight games. He combines downfield aggression with accuracy, averaging an elite 15.0 yards per completion and posting a 53.7% passing success rate, good for a 90.7 Total QBR. Maiava protects himself well in the pocket, taking sacks on just 3.3% of dropbacks while producing 9.3 yards per dropback with a 10.3 ANY/A clip. He’s also a functional red-zone runner, adding 6 rushing TDs with a 65.5% success rate on the ground.

The USC Trojans Defense

USC’s defense is improved but still uneven, ranking 42nd in Defensive SP+ with a profile built more on disruption than consistency. The Trojans can be marched on by superior run games with a 47.6% rushing success allowed (122nd). However, they are technically sound, allowing 2.33 yards after contact (26th) with an 89.9% tackle success rate (6th). The Trojans pass rush is devastating when it hits (7.9% sack rate, 16th) and the defensive line generates Top 10 havoc. Coverage remains stable with opponents averaging 5.8 yards per dropback (40th) and giving up explosive pass plays on just 12% of completions (16th). Overall, USC’s defense has demonstrated advanced tackling and front-seven disruption, but inconsistent success-rate prevention and a middle-tier run defense keep it from matching the explosiveness of its offense.

USC Player to Watch on Defense: LB Eric Gentry

Eric Gentry has been a central force for USC’s defense, leading the team with 67 total tackles—including 43 solo—across nine games, with a strong 84.8% tackle efficiency and an impressive 13 total havoc plays. He’s been disruptive in the backfield with 7.0 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles, showcasing his ability to both stop the run and generate splash plays. As a pass rusher, Gentry posted a stellar 22.0% pressure rate on 41 rushes, creating four sacks with one strip-sack and ranking second on the team in total pressures per rush. While he’s been occasionally targeted in coverage (6 completions on 9 targets for 55 yards), he’s kept the damage modest with just 6.1 yards per attempt allowed and a 36.6 defensive QBR.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz
2025 Record: 6-3
Offense Ranking: 52
Defense Ranking: 6
Strength of Schedule: 15

Iowa has clawed its way to a 6-3 record despite fielding an offense that ranks 52nd in SP+ and continues to be one of the slowest paced, least explosive units in the country (133rd in marginal explosiveness, 135th in yards per successful play). The defense is coordinated by longtime DC Phil Parker ranking 6th in SP+ while allowing just 4.28 yards per play, 1.15 points per drive and generating the 6th-best EPA per dropback. They've thrived in field position (6th), turnover margin (+4), and fourth-down defense (1st in both conversion rate and success rate), masking their 116th-ranked passing success rate and 133rd passing downs explosiveness. With winnable games against Michigan State and Nebraska still on the slate, and a tough road matchup this week vs. USC, Iowa enters the home stretch with a shot at 9-wins if things break right.

The Iowa Hawkeyes Offense

Iowa’s offense remains a grind-it-out, ball-control unit that ranks 52nd in SP+ despite being 113th in yards per play (5.01) and 131st in tempo. The rushing attack is the strength of the unit, ranking 17th in success rate (49.4%) and 15th in EPA per rush, buoyed by a Top 5 stuff rate (12.8%) and one of the nation’s best offensive lines in pressure rate (1.6%) and fewest penalties (1st in FBS). However, the passing game continues to struggle mightily—ranking 116th in success rate, 124th in yards per dropback, and 133rd in passing downs explosiveness—with an air yards per target figure (6.1) that ranks 135th. Despite the inefficiency, Iowa maximizes opportunities by finishing drives (13th in goal-to-go TD rate), avoiding penalties (1st), and dominating in short-yardage conversion scenarios (4th in 3rd-and-short, 1st in 4th-and-1).

Iowa Player to Watch on Offense: QB Mark Gronowski

Mark Gronowski has been the engine of the offense, starting all 9 games while throwing for 1,084 yards with a 63.9% completion rate and a 5-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio. Though his passing success rate (43.5%) and yards per dropback (5.3) are modest, he sports a competent 57.4 QBR with 9.3 yards per completion. As a dual threat, Gronowski has added 396 rushing yards and a team-high 12 rushing touchdowns on 75 attempts, posting a strong 62.7% success rate and picking up a first down on nearly half his carries (48.0%). His physicality in the run game is evident, averaging 2.78 yards after contact per carry while forcing 0.23 missed tackles per rush.

The Iowa Hawkeyes Defense

Iowa’s defense has once again been among the nation’s elite, ranking 6th in SP+ and holding opponents to just 4.28 yards per play (7th) and 1.15 points per drive (7th). The unit thrives on efficiency disruption, sitting Top 10 in both EPA/play (-0.16) and yards per dropback (4.8), while also dominating situational football with the No. 1 third-and-long (7+ yards) success rate allowed and a 1st-ranked fourth-down stop rate (21.4%). Defensive explosiveness prevention has been a hallmark of Hawkeye defenses, and this year is no different, ranking 3rd in marginal explosiveness while allowing only 4.4% of plays to gain 20+ yards (11th nationally). Phil Parker’s secondary has suffocated passing games with the 2nd-lowest air yards per target (9.3), the highest contested target rate (29%), and the 5th-best raw QBR allowed (29.1).

Iowa Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Max Llewellyn

Max Llewellyn has emerged as Iowa’s premier pass rusher, leading the team with 6.0 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, and 13 total havoc plays over 9 games. His disruptive presence off the edge is backed by a 16.5% pressure rate on 164 pass-rush snaps, with a team-high 27 pressures and 6 created sacks. Llewellyn has also delivered clutch moments, registering 21 first pressures and forcing two fumbles while posting a strong 20.7% pressure rate on third downs. As a run defender, he has contributed 5 stops and forced 2 fumbles, though his 73.3% tackle rate indicates room for improved finishing consistency.

Iowa and USC team stats, betting trends

• Iowa has lost 7 of its last 9 games as an underdog
• USC has covered the spread in 4 of its last 5 home games against teams with better records
• The Over is 7-3 in Iowa's last 5 on the road and USC's last 5 at home combined
• Iowa is 6-2-1 ATS this season

• The OVER has cashed in 5 of USC’s 9 games this season (5-4)

Rotoworld Best Bets

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Kamari Moulton OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards

Kamari Moulton has gone OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards in his last five games including vs. Indiana, Penn State, Minnesota, and Oregon. USC’s lagging rush defense was disected succinctly above, with the Trojans getting burnt for:

• 130 rushing yards by Northwestern
• 188 rushing yards by Nebraska
• 306 rushing yards by Notre Dame
• 171 rushing yards by Illinois

Iowa Runs the Ball 70% of the time on standard downs (8th nationally) and ranks 15th in EPA/rush with a 50% RUSH SUCC Rate (17th), while their starting RB Kamari Moulton has gotten 15+ carries in the last 5 games. With Iowa RB Kamari Moulton having gone Over 74.5 Rushing Yards in his last five games, including versus strong run defenses like Indiana, Penn State, Minnesota, and Oregon, I’m betting he makes it Over 74.5 for the sixth straight time this weekend against USC.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
 
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Iowa and USC

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Iowa Hawkeyes at +7.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 49.5.

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