No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 11 Oklahoma prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

Saturday, the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) look to maintain their spot at the top of the SEC when they host the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Its also imperative for the Sooners as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Team strengths and key matchups

Game Details and How to watch Oklahoma at Alabama

• Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025
• Time: 3:30PM Eastern
• Site: Bryant-Denny Stadium
• City: Tuscaloosa, AL
• TV/Streaming: ABC

Game Odds for Oklahoma at Alabama

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Oklahoma Sooners (+170), Alabama Crimson Tide (-205)
• Spread: Alabama -5.5 (-112)
• Total: 45.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Oklahoma Sooners

Head Coach: Brent Venables
2025 Record: 7-2 (3-2)
Offense Ranking: 29
Defense Ranking: 3
Strength of Schedule: 13

Oklahoma enters Week 11 at 7-2 with a Top 10 SP+ ranking (No. 9 overall) thanks to a defense that ranks third nationally in SP+ and first in success rate (29.0%), while holding opponents to just 1.09 points per drive (5th) and 4.16 yards per play (6th). Defensive coordinator tandem Todd Bates and Jay Valai have crafted a disruptive front seven that leads the nation in stuff rate (30.2%) while ranking fourth in sack rate (9.9%) and pressure rate (40.7%), propping up a struggling offense that ranks 29th in SP+ but just 84th in yards per play. Brent Venables’ group struggles with explosiveness on both sides of the ball (103rd offensively, 98th defensively in marginal explosiveness), relying heavily on efficiency and short-field opportunities (10th in average field position allowed). The Sooners’ defense ranks No. 1 in the country in standard downs success rate allowed (34.6%) and has surrendered TDs on just 42.1% of red zone trips (9th). Though offensive line issues (109th in blown run block rate) and a lackluster run game (83rd in YPR/112th in YAC) have capped their upside, Oklahoma’s elite defense gives them a narrow path to a 10-win regular season.

The Oklahoma Sooners Offense

Oklahoma’s offense has been steady but unspectacular in 2025, ranking 29th in SP+ yet just 84th in yards per play (5.50) and 70th in EPA/play, reflecting a unit that moves the ball efficiently but struggles to generate explosive gains. The Sooners’ rushing attack has been inconsistent, producing a 44.6% success rate (60th) and just 4.6 yards per carry, with a high stuff rate of 20.1% and limited chunk gains (82nd in yards per successful rush). Through the air, the Sooners have been moderately efficient with a 45.5% passing success rate (36th) but lack vertical potency, ranking just 79th in adjusted net yards per attempt (7.9) and 71st in yards per dropback (6.4). While offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle’s scheme sustains drives with balance and opportunistic third-down execution (41.8%, 53rd), the offense’s lack of explosiveness and red-zone efficiency (76th in points per scoring opportunity) has limited their scoring ceiling against the upper tier of SEC defenses.

Oklahoma Player to Watch on Offense: QB John Mateer

John Mateer has started eight games at quarterback for Oklahoma, completing 63.8% of his passes for 1,949 yards with an 8-to-7 TD-INT ratio and an average depth of target of just under 9 yards. While he pushes the ball downfield at 11.5 yards per completion, his success rate (46.8%) and QBR (68.6) suggest an uneven passing profile with a few too many mistakes, especially under pressure (17.8% sack-to-pressure rate). On the ground, Mateer has added 396 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns at a healthy 5.08 YPC with a 52.6% success rate, making him a productive dual-threat weapon with 10.6% of his rushes going for 10+ yards. His combination of run game consistency and deep/intermediate passing aggression gives Oklahoma a dynamic, if sometimes volatile, offensive identity.

The Oklahoma Sooners Defense

Oklahoma’s defense has been the backbone of its 2025 resurgence, ranking 3rd nationally in SP+ and 1st in both overall and rushing success rate allowed, holding opponents to a meager 4.16 yards per play (6th). The Sooners’ front seven has been ferocious, leading the nation in stuff rate (30.2%) and ranking 4th in sack rate (9.9%) and pressure rate (40.7%), fueled by an elite defensive line that ranks 2nd in havoc rate. Brent Venables’ unit excels situationally, sitting 10th in third-down defense (30.4% conversion rate allowed) and 2nd in points allowed per scoring opportunity (3.11), while limiting red-zone TDs to just 42.1%. With Top 15 marks in both yards per dropback versus man (4.4) and zone (5.7), this defense’s disciplined coverage and backfield disruption have made Oklahoma one of the most complete and suffocating units in the country.

Oklahoma Player to Watch on Defense: Edge R. Mason Thomas

R Mason Thomas has emerged as Oklahoma’s top pass rusher, racking up 6.5 sacks and 21 total pressures on 150 pass-rush attempts for a sparkling 14.0% pressure rate. He leads the team in both sacks created (8) and first pressures (21), generating consistent disruption with a solid 2.48-second average time to pressure and drawing one penalty in the process. His 12 total havoc plays, including 9.5 tackles for loss and a forced fumble, reflect his ability to make impact plays both in the backfield and against the run. With 7 run stops and a defensive touchdown on the year, Thomas is producing at an All-Big 12 level as a complete edge defender.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2025 Record: 8-1
Offense Ranking: 20
Defense Ranking: 10
Strength of Schedule: 6

Alabama enters Week 12 with an 8-1 record and a perfect 6-0 mark in SEC play, leaning on a Top 10 SP+ defense (No. 10) and a resilient offense (No. 20) under new head coach Kalen DeBoer. The Crimson Tide have consistently overperformed expectations, posting a +15.6 actual scoring margin and riding elite turnover luck (+10 margin, 7th nationally) despite ranking outside the top 100 in rushing efficiency. Offensively, Alabama thrives through the air with a 49.3% passing success rate (15th) and ranks 10th nationally in EPA/dropback, though their stuff-prone, inefficient run game (126th in YPC) drags down overall explosiveness. Defensively, Bama allows just 5.2 yards per dropback (21st) and ranks Top 3 in limiting completions of 20+ yards (3rd), with standout coverage numbers versus zone and elite red zone touchdown prevention (11th).

The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense

Alabama’s offense under Ryan Grubb is built around an ascending passing game that ranks 15th in success rate (49.3%) and 10th in EPA/dropback, despite operating at one of the slowest paces in the country (127th in adjusted tempo). QB Ty Simpson has been sharp leading the QB group that boasts a 67.3% completion rate, 0.3% INT rate (2nd nationally), and a strong 10.4 ANY/A that fuels explosive drives despite limited rushing success. The run game has been a major weakness, ranking 126th in yards per carry (4.1) with one of the nation’s worst marks in yards after contact (117th), forcing Bama to rely on passing downs to move the chains. Still, the Tide capitalize on scoring chances with a 73.7% red zone TD rate (15th) and are among the nation's best in converting 3rd-and-medium situations (58.1%, 10th).

Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ty Simpson

Ty Simpson has emerged as a poised and efficient leader under center, completing 66.9% of his passes for 2,461 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just a single interception through nine starts in 2025. He has thrived in Alabama’s vertical passing scheme, averaging 12.4 yards per completion and 9.6 adjusted net yards per attempt, with a top-tier 81.3 Total QBR and an 84.3 PFF passing grade. Simpson has been particularly effective attacking the intermediate and deep parts of the field, where he’s posted a 97.1 grade over the middle (10–19 yards) and a 90.8 grade on deep balls to the right, demonstrating strong touch and decision-making. Though he's taken 16 sacks, he’s navigated pressure reasonably well (17.6% pressure-to-sack rate) and has added value with his legs, rushing for 177 yards, two scores, and a 47.5% rushing success rate despite some ball-security issues (5 fumbles, 4 lost). Overall, Simpson’s blend of efficiency, deep-ball touch, and control of the offense has him performing at a Heisman contending level at the quarterback position.

The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense

Alabama’s defense has rebounded in 2025 with Top 40 ranks in both success rate (37th) and EPA/play allowed (24th), anchored by a strong effort in limiting explosive plays and finishing drives. The Tide are especially stingy in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on just 45.8% of red zone trips (11th nationally) and giving up 1.54 points per drive (20th). Their pass defense ranks 21st in yards per dropback allowed (5.2) and holds opponents to a 37.9% passing success rate (39th), but has been vulnerable in man coverage, surrendering 9.0 yards/dropback vs. man (130th). While the defensive line generates modest disruption (102nd in DL havoc rate), the linebackers and DBs compensate with high havoc rates (11th and 34th), helping the unit produce a +10 turnover margin (7th).

Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Yhonzae Pierre

Yhonzae Pierre has emerged as a premier edge threat for Alabama, leading the defense with 26 pressures and 6.0 sacks on 134 pass rushes, good for a disruptive 19.4% pressure rate. His 12.5 TFLs and 16 total havoc plays underscore his explosive run-game impact, as he’s registered 45 tackles (28 solo) and ranks third on the team in total stops. Despite playing 52 coverage snaps, Pierre allowed just 1 completion on 3 targets for a total of 1 yard and a microscopic 6.8 defensive QBR—showcasing rare three-down versatility. He also forced a fumble, generated 6 first pressures, and disrupted plays on 27% of his third-down rushes, making him Alabama’s most consistently impactful front-seven defender.

Oklahoma at Alabama team stats, betting trends

• Alabama has won its last 7 games against teams with worse records
• Alabama has covered the spread in 9 of its last 10 games
• Alabama's average game score this season (50.0) is OVER the Total (46)
• The OVER has cashed just twice in Oklahoma’s 9 games (2-7)
• Oklahoma is 4-4-1 ATS this season
• Alabama has won 17 in a row at home

Rotoworld Best Bets

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Jam Miller UNDER 35.5 Rushing Yards

Oklahoma is leading the nation with a 30% stuff rate while Alabama ranks 126th in yards per rush (4.1) with a 39.3% rushing success rate (109th). Bama RB Jam Miller has been slowly losing carries to RB Daniel Hill, with his carry load decreasing for five consecutive games down to just 8 carries for 13 yards against LSU last week. With Jam splitting carries (7-of-25 team rushes last game) while topping-out at just 26 rushing yards in his last three games, I’m taking Jam Miller to go Under 35.5 Rushing Yards against a tough Oklahoma front.

****

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Oklahoma and Alabama

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Oklahoma Sooners at +5.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 45.5.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
Eric Froton (@CFFroton)