Projecting win totals for each Big Ten Football team in 2026

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The Big Ten is shaping up to be as deep and unpredictable as it’s been in years, and with spring ball in the rearview, we’ve got a better feel for rosters, key contributors and where things might be headed.

Here’s how things could shake out in 2026.

Purdue: 4-8

Purdue still feels like a program trying to find traction. Barry Odom has work to do reshaping the roster, and the schedule doesn’t exactly do them any favors. The Boilermakers get Notre Dame in non-conference play, then draw Indiana and Washington as two of their tougher Big Ten games. There are some more manageable games up for grabs against teams like Maryland, Wisconsin and UCLA, but Purdue may have to steal a couple of those just to climb toward four wins.  

Northwestern: 4-8

Northwestern’s schedule is brutal. The Wildcats have to play Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State all on the road, which is about as unforgiving as it gets. Even with the addition of Aidan Chiles providing some intrigue at quarterback, that path leaves very little room for error. Add in games against Penn State, Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois, and it’s hard to see Northwestern stacking enough wins to get to bowl eligibility.  

Maryland: 5-7

Maryland has enough returning experience to be interesting, especially with Malik Washington giving the Terps some upside at quarterback. The problem is the schedule — the Terps have road games at Nebraska, Ohio State and USC, plus home games against Virginia Tech, Illinois, Wisconsin and Penn State. There are wins available, but the middle and end of the schedule make it tough to envision a ceiling that’s much higher.

Rutgers: 5-7

Rutgers should get a chance to start fast with UMass, Boston College and Howard early, but things get tougher once Big Ten play settles in. Indiana, Michigan and USC all come to Piscataway, and then they have to go to Maryland, Wisconsin and Penn State. With Athan Kaliakmanis gone, even with Antwan Raymond and KJ Duff returning as important offensive pieces, the margin feels thin.

Minnesota: 6-6

Minnesota’s schedule feels manageable enough to get back to a bowl, but not easy enough to project a major jump. The Gophers avoid some of the absolute worst-case schedule draws, but the three biggest tests look like Indiana, Washington and Michigan, with two of those being away from home. A non-conference game against Mississippi State is also huge.  

UCLA: 6-6

UCLA has a chance to build early momentum with games against Cal, San Diego State and Nevada before the Big Ten grind really picks up. The issue is the top-end schedule — the Bruins go to Oregon and Michigan, while also getting USC at home. Nico Iamaleava gives them a real quarterback to build around, but they may need to win a couple of swing games against teams like Maryland, Wisconsin, Minnesota or Illinois to reach six.  

Michigan State: 6-6

Michigan State’s schedule has some real teeth. The Spartans go to Notre Dame in September, travel to UCLA, then later visit Michigan while also drawing Washington and Oregon. That’s a tough setup for Pat Fitzgerald’s first season in East Lansing. Still, if the Spartans handle Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Northwestern and Rutgers, they only need to find a couple Big Ten wins to reach bowl eligibility.

Wisconsin: 7-5

Wisconsin has one of the more favorable Big Ten schedules on paper. The Badgers miss Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Indiana, which is a massive break. The problem is Notre Dame looms in the non-conference, and USC is still a tough conference draw. Luke Fickell needs Colton Joseph and the offense to take a huge step, but the path is there for Wisconsin to be better than it was a year ago.

Nebraska: 7-5

Nebraska has a tricky path with draw Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State and Washington. The Cornhuskers then close the regular season at Iowa. That’s a lot to ask, even if the roster is improving. Nebraska should be competitive, but those ranked matchups are what keep this projection from moving higher.

Iowa: 8-4

Iowa’s schedule sets up for another solid season, but there are some clear trouble spots. The Hawkeyes host Iowa State early, then get games against Michigan, Washington and Ohio State. The swing games at Minnesota and Illinois may end up deciding whether this is a seven-win team or a nine-win team.

Indiana: 8-4

Indiana’s schedule is much tougher this time around. The Hoosiers get the Ohio State rematch on Oct. 17, host USC, and have road games at Michigan and Washington. That’s a difficult path, even with Curt Cignetti coming off a remarkable run. Josh Hoover gives Indiana a solid quarterback following Fernando Mendoza’s departure, but repeating last year’s level of success feels like a lot to ask.

Washington: 8-4

Washington is one of the more interesting teams in the league because the home schedule gives it a real chance to make noise. The Huskies get Indiana at home, and if Demond Williams Jr. takes a step at quarterback, that game could be a big one. The issue is the road slate, with trips to Oregon and USC standing out immediately, plus tricky games at Nebraska, Michigan State and Purdue.

USC: 9-3

USC has a playoff-caliber roster, but the schedule makes this far from automatic. The Trojans get Oregon, Ohio State and Washington at home, which helps, but they have to travel to Penn State, Wisconsin and Indiana. Jayden Maiava gives Lincoln Riley a proven quarterback, but the defense has to hold up against a schedule filled with heavyweights.

Penn State: 10-2

Penn State’s schedule is one of the biggest reasons to like the Nittany Lions this season. They avoid Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, and get USC at home. The tougher spots still exist — Michigan and Washington are both on the road — but compared to other contenders, Matt Campbell has a very manageable path in year one.

Oregon: 10-2

Oregon’s schedule got a lot tougher. Washington and USC are back on the slate, and Ohio State and Michigan are both on there this year. There’s also a non-conference road game at Oklahoma State to consider. The final four-week stretch against Ohio State, Michigan, MSU and Washington could define the Ducks’ season. Dante Moore and a defense returning plenty of experience give Oregon enough to stay near the top, but that late run will be a real test.

Ohio State: 11-1

Ohio State has the best roster in the league, but it may also have the toughest schedule. The Buckeyes have games at Texas, Indiana, USC, Iowa and Nebraska, while Oregon and Michigan come to Columbus. That’s a brutal path, even for a team with Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. Somewhere between 1-2 losses feels reasonable when you consider what this team will miss following the NFL Draft, but anything more would be a surprise.

Michigan: 9-3

Michigan’s schedule is one of the tougher ones in the Big Ten, and we’ll learn a lot about the Wolverines early. The Wolverines open against Western Michigan, but Oklahoma comes to Ann Arbor the following week. Big Ten play then starts vs Iowa, and the conference slate also includes Indiana, Penn State, Oregon and Ohio State.

That’s why nine wins feels like the right landing spot for now. Bryce Underwood’s development completely determines the ceiling, while Jordan Marshall and the defense should give Michigan a strong enough floor. On paper, the Wolverines are good enough to beat just about anyone on the schedule, but with this many high-end games, projecting three losses feels fair.

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