ESPN provides final analytics, preview, prediction for Iowa football vs. USC
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The Iowa Hawkeyes have their work cut out for them this Saturday with a road trip to Los Angeles to take on the USC Trojans in a game where Kirk Ferentz’s 6-3 squad could play spoiler to the 7-2 Trojans’ College Football Playoff hopes.
On what is forecasted to be a soaking wet day at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, the Hawkeyes have to figure out a way to run the ball on offense, while slowing down USC’s high-powered passing attack.
With kickoff just one day away, ESPN looked into the matchup and provided its final predictions for this matchup, all of which are going with the Trojans based on the analytics.
No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC (3:30 p.m., BTN)
Iowa has lost three games, including two against top-10 opponents, by 10 combined points. I appreciate that the CFP committee still ranks the Hawkeyes, even though the AP has been underrating them all season, and their much-improved run game could do serious damage against a USC defense that ranks 126th in rushing success rate allowed. The Trojans are solid against the pass, but that doesn’t really matter in an Iowa game.
When USC has the ball, it’s elite versus elite. The Trojans rank fourth in points per drive, and Iowa’s defense is seventh. The Hawkeyes have played against two top-15 offenses (per SP+) and have allowed 31 total points; USC played against two top-15 defenses and scored 55. What happens in this one?
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 4.5 | FPI projection: USC by 7.5– Bill Connelly, ESPN
If the Hawkeyes can bring the rain with them in this matchup, it helps the defense immensely, as USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has been one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten and the country this year with his full arsenal of weapons in the passing game.
Iowa’s run game has to get going early against a USC defense that can give up yards and is vulnerable to run game success. The Hawkeyes’ style of play matches up well in this game; it is simply a matter of executing it.
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This article originally appeared on Hawkeyes Wire: Iowa Football: ESPN provides analytics, prediction, pick vs. USC
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