Baylor Bears College Football Preview 2026
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Baylor might have struggled last season in a disappointing run, but it sure was a lot of fun.
A lot of passing, a lot of high-flying shootouts, and a lot of close battles that could’ve gone the other way.
That’s life in a relatively even Big 12. The 2024 Bear team got hot over the second half of the season and finished 8-5. Last year, Baylor lost three one-score games that could’ve gone either way, and it went 5-7.
Head coach Dave Aranda now has three losing seasons in the last four years, but he and his staff get another shot to see if they can make a run.
Once again, there will be lots of points in Baylor games, but this year, the fun has to be in the winning.
Baylor Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Dave Aranda (7th year at Baylor, 36-37)
- Best Case / Worst Case: Eight wins with the offense rocking/A fourth losing season in five years and everyone is fired
- Key Player: DJ Lagway, QB Jr.
- 2025 Record: 5-7
- Biggest Question: Can the defense match the offense’s production?
– 2026 Baylor Schedule Analysis
Baylor Key 2025 Stats
- Fumbles: Baylor 14 (lost 12), Opponents 8 (lost 2)
- Passing Yards: Baylor 3,715, Opponents 2,339
- Baylor Scoring: 3rd Quarter 37, 4th Quarter 126
Offense
The attack wasn’t as dominant as it was in 2024, but it was still explosive, and it kept up the pace in enough games to be more than just competitive.
There’s a talent overhaul happening, but that’s not the worst thing in the world – the Bears upgraded in a few spots. If they can cut down on the mistakes and add a bit more consistency to the scoring, look out.
What’s Working
The passing game is terrific. Sawyer Robertson was one of the best unsung passers in college football over the last two seasons – throwing for close to 6,800 yards and 59 touchdowns – and now he’s gone.
And Baylor got even better at the position.
Florida transfer DJ Lagway is a true NFL talent with all the tools and upside to not only keep the production going, but blow it up bigger under offensive coordinator Jake Spavital.
The transfer portal brought in some stars to make Lagway look great. And vice versa.
The receiving corps is all but starting over, but Dre’lon Miller (Colorado) and Gavin Freeman (Oklahoma State) should work perfectly around Louis Brown IV, a good talent who sat for most of last year to keep his eligibility to be a deep threat on the outside.
Baylor needs to keep pushing the ground game. It’s not an afterthought in the offense, but it does take a back seat to the high-powered passing game.
Leading rusher Bryson Washington is gone, but Caden Knighten ran well when he got his chances last year, and Dawson Pendergrass is back after missing all of last year with a foot injury. He ran for 671 yards and six scores in a strong 2024, and now all is fine.
What Needs Work
The turnovers have got to chill out. With this fast, fun offense, sometimes the mistakes are chalked up to the cost of doing business. Not last year.
The 2024 team turned it over 15 times and got past most of the mistakes. Last season, the turnovers were a killer, losing 24 of them with two or more in nine games. Baylor was 0-3 against FBS teams when throwing two picks – Lagway had his problems with Interceptions as a Gator.
A whole lot more is needed out of the offensive line. It didn’t quite mesh. The pass protection wasn’t awful, and there was a decent push at times for the ground game, but overall, the line wasn’t anything special.
Senior Kaden Sieracki at right tackle is the only returning starter for a line that took a few giant hits in the transfer portal.
More third down conversions are a must. There was plenty of pop to the attack, but too much was missing in the run-of-the-mill move-the-chain moments.
Two years ago, the Baylor offense connected on 44% of its third down plays, going 5-0 when converting 42% of the time. Last year, the offense converted just 37.6% of the time overall and went 3-0 when hitting that 42% mark.
Player to Watch
DJ Lagway, QB, Jr.
Not to totally dismiss how good Sawyer Robertson was – don’t be shocked if he sticks as a backup with the Las Vegas Raiders – but Lagway has NFL franchise starter upside.
First, he has to be a best-player-on-the-field difference-maker for the Bears. When he was on during his time at Florida – the guy carved up Texas last season in one of the most important national wins of the season – he was special. Now he has to be consistent.
Defense
The Bears are trying to fix the defensive glitch.
The offense cranked out a ton of yards and points, and too many times the defense gave them away just as fast.
There’s a new defensive coordinator, with Joe Klanderman’s first job being to find more playmakers across the board, and to find a way to simply get his guys off the field after allowing close to 400 yards per game.
What’s Working
It wasn’t great last year, but the line should be stronger. It’s not as big a transfer signing as Lagway is for the offense, but the Bears have their anchor in Hosea Wheeler coming in from Indiana.
Garrick Ponder was a good pass rusher at Southern Miss, and Jordan Mack is a veteran presence with good size coming in from Coastal Carolina.
Just be okay against the run. The bad: the Baylor run defense got ripped to shreds far too often. The good: when it didn’t, the team won.
Baylor went 0-7 when allowing more than 165 rushing yards, and was 5-0 when giving up fewer. That’s the first order of business this offseason – get more out of that run D.
The Bears have a few hitters returning. The linebacking corps should turn into one of the defense’s bigger strengths around veterans Kyland Reed and Travion Barnes. Jacob Redding leads a bunch of safeties who’ll make volume tackles.
What Needs Work
Find the playmakers. The Bears suffered some huge gut punches in the transfer portal battle. Leading tackler Keaton Thomas will be a star linebacker at Ole Miss. Key edge rushers Kamauryn Morgan (Missouri) and Matthew Fobbs-White (Virginia) will be missed.
Coming up with more takeaways will make things a whole lot easier. Sometimes, defenses that give up lots of yards make up for it with big plays on the other side. That wasn’t Baylor.
The Bears only came up with multiple takeaways once in the 11 games against FBS teams. They only recovered two fumbles and forced 11 takeaways overall.
The corners need to stand out. LeVar Thornton is a tall, lanky veteran at one corner spot. He led the way with seven broken up passes with one pick, but he needs help from the rest of the secondary that – while statistically good overall – allowed more than 200 yards through the air six times.
Player to Watch
Jacob Redding, S Jr.
The 6-1, 200-pound free safety can move. He got in a little work over his first two seasons, and then last year he turned into a solid all-around playmaker with 53 tackles and three interceptions. Now he needs to be around the 70-tackle mark as one of the defense’s key veterans.
Keys to the Season
The offensive style is outstanding, there’s enough good defensive coaching talent to make that side of the ball better, and now everything needs to come together to make this a magical season.
Be on the right side of the turnover margin, keep the penalties to a minimum, and get some good momentum going early on.
This should be one of those teams that feeds off of anything that goes right – or goes in the tank if there’s some hard luck moments early on.
Player Who Needs To Shine
Cole Rhett, OT Jr.
Lagway is the make-or-break guy for the season, but he needs time to work. Rhett is a massive 6-6, 341-pound transfer from Toledo who’ll get a long look at the left tackle gig in fall camp. If he doesn’t work out right away, there will be some shuffling to do.
Biggest Concern
The turnovers.
Turnovers killed the Bears throughout last year, and even though Lagway has the talent to be special, he has to prove right away that he can be careful with the ball. He had to push things a bit for the Gators, but he led the SEC with 14 interceptions after throwing nine in 2024.
Biggest Game
Auburn, September 5
This is a moment to make a big statement that this is a new year, and a new team, and it’s going to be a factor in the Big 12 race.
Auburn is looking to do the same thing as it tries to establish itself as an SEC program to worry about, and it’ll be helped by the friendly crowd in Atlanta. But if the Bears can pull this off, they should be 4-0 going into the trip to Arizona State.
By the way, 2021 was the last time Baylor won its first game of the season against an FBS team.
Transfer Portal
It wasn’t as good as Baylor fans might have wanted.
There were some big signings, but overall, the net haul of talent flowed the other way. If the big signings – Lagway, Wheeler, Ponder – work and they’re great, that might overcome all of the losses.
Best Signing
Hosea Wheeler, DT (Indiana)
Again, it’s Lagway in terms of need, but Wheeler is the type of fifth-year senior who can change an entire defense.
Outstanding in his last two seasons at Western Kentucky, he moved over to Indiana, made 31 tackles and four tackles for loss as a big part of the national champion defense, and now he’s in Waco.
Biggest Loss
Keaton Thomas, LB (Ole Miss)
There were a few massive losses. Center Coleton Price is going to Kentucky, and running back Bryson Washington is gone to Auburn, but for a Baylor defense that needs as many stars as possible, losing the guy who made 219 tackles over the last two years hurts.
Other Names to Know
- Dre’lon Miller, WR (Colorado)
- Daniel Cobbs, S (Kansas State)
- Nate Kibble, OG (Texas)
CFN Season Prediction
Everything screams More of the Same.
Baylor’s offense will be potent again – but Lagway has to show he can limit the interceptions.
The defense should be a little bit better – but there are WAY too many moving parts to assume any sort of massive improvement.
And worst of all, the Big 12 has gotten stronger. Even if Baylor is better overall, every game will be a fight.
CFN Prediction: 5-7
There’s no Arizona or Utah to deal with, and this year, not playing Kansas State is a big break.
Here’s the problem. Baylor has five road games in five dates, and two of the Big 12 home games – Texas Tech and TCU – are hardly layups.
Starting in Atlanta against Auburn, at Arizona State, at BYU, at Houston – Baylor will almost certainly be the underdog in all five games. There’s no margin for error.
It’ll come down to whether or not it can get a win against BYU, Texas Tech, or Houston over the last three weeks.
No matter what, though, once again, Baylor football will be a blast to watch.
Related: Big 12 Football Win Totals 2026: Spring Predictions for All 16 Teams
This story was originally published by College Football News on May 9, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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