2025 MAC Football Bowl Season Projections: Week 12

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The Mid-American Conference title race is by the far the most difficult to predict.

Heading into Week 12, eight teams have a path to competing in the MAC Championship. At current, no teams are undefeated in league play, while five teams sit at 4-2. Ball State, who plays Saturday, can reach a 4-2 MAC record with win on Saturday, which would only create more knots. Naturally, because of that fact, the conference’s bowl games are hard to predict.

However, we’re going to try.

There are five teams in-conference who don’t qualify for bowls as of today, including Akron, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois and UMass, so we won’t have to consider them.

That said, those teams will have a say in both the MAC title and postseason races as we reach the end of the 2025 regular season campaign. Four teams are still looking for the right to play an extra game, including Ball State, Buffalo, Miami and— incredibly— Kent State.

The past week-plus has seen Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Toledo all clinch post-season berths with a sixth victory, joining Ohio, which was the first team to clinch the postseason last week.

Out of the teams that are still alive, I project only Miami to reach eligibility to give the MAC five bowl teams. With that assumption in mind, here is how I have the destinations shaking out based on recent history and projected finish.

GameAboveSports Bowl: Central Michigan

Central Michigan has not appeared in Detroit’s bowl game since 2015. This and the Arizona Bowl are usually the easiest to project in the MAC’s bowl lineup.

There is one caveat, however: Central Michigan could land in the MAC Championship Game. This would complicate their candidacy since the MAC typically does not like sending teams to Detroit for back-to-back games. (Though the Ford family would probably be fairly happy to see the ticket sales of a local team in the holiday season.)

A potential all-Michigan school MAC Championship Game could complicate this even further. If this does happen, the MAC is not above sending a repeat team. The MAC sent Bowling Green to play in the GameAboveSports Bowl in 2022 and 2023. Before straying too much into hypotheticals, Central Michigan takes the GameAboveSports Bowl spot in my projections for now.

Arizona Bowl: Western Michigan

With the game on The CW, the MAC has sent its conference runner-up each of the last three years. In this scenario, I have Western Michigan receiving the nod to the Arizona Bowl by virtue of never having played there before. Other conference championship contenders have very recent appearances. Ohio played in the bowl in 2022, Toledo in 2023, and Miami in 2024.

If anything, Western Michigan and Central Michigan are interchangeable here depending on who wins the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan last appeared in the GameAboveSports Bowl in 2021, while Central Michigan last made a trip to a Southwestern bowl game in that same year’s Sun Bowl.

Cure Bowl: Toledo

The Cure Bowl has hosted the conference champion the last two years, but I have things going a little differently this year. This is where things begin to get complicated as far as projection.

ESPN owns the Cure Bowl. Hence, not only do MAC schools have to compete with each other for this spot, but with the rest of the Group of Five. ESPN’s bowl games have very fluid tie-ins because the Worldwide Leader wants to create the best possible matchups for television.

Toledo gets the nod to the Cure Bowl just on the grounds of never appearing in the bowl. The Rockets last appeared in a Florida bowl in 2022, that year’s Boca Raton Bowl. The Rockets avoid too much travel fatigue and get to reminisce on the Chuck Ealy Tangerine Bowl years.

68 Ventures Bowl: Ohio

This one may come as a surprise, but once again, ESPN’s Group of Five bowl puzzle comes into play. Ohio appeared in the Cure Bowl last year and my projections have FIU opposing the Sun Belt in the Boca Raton Bowl. My wishful thinking has Montgomery’s Salute 2 Veterans Bowl arranging a matchup between in-state rivals Troy and Jacksonville State.

Consequently, Ohio earns an appearance in Mobile’s bowl game, which the Bobbies have not appeared in since 2016. This avoids the fatigue with Florida and even Myrtle Beach, where Ohio played in 2023.

New Mexico Bowl: Miami

Another surprise result of ESPN’s Group of Five bowl puzzle.

The MAC last appeared in this game in 2019 when MAC West champion Central Michigan played San Diego State. This created a “Rose Bowl Lite” matchup. This year, New Mexico looks like a shoe-in candidate for their home bowl, which they have not appeared in since 2016. While the Lobos are having an outstanding season, their projected 8-4 resume may not not command a marquee opponent from the American Conference.

Since New Mexico is the home team, you could really stick anyone here regardless of travel demands. I have Miami appearing here with a projected 7-5 record. Miami and Ohio are interchangeable here depending on the end results of the MAC season.

Other Notes

Some may notice that I had the MAC vacating the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. I did this because I believe that ESPN will invite Boise State to play in their home bowl game for the first since 2005 and give them James Madison as an opponent for a Group of Five New Year’s Six bowl.

The rationale for that decision— along with others from the Group of Five landscape— can be read here.

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