CFP expansion revenue ‘might not grow to the level schools hope,’ analyst suggests
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As talk of doubling the size of the College Football Playoff field from 12 to 24 teams ramps up, questions about just how financially beneficial expansion would be continue to be front-and-center.
The equation isn’t as simple as: more games = more money. Any expansion to 24 teams would necessitate the elimination of conference championship games, which are estimated to earn between $200 million and $250 million in revenue across all of the FBS. The SEC alone tabs the value of its championship game at around $100 million. An expanded playoff would need to make up for this lost revenue and then some. And so far, the SEC doesn’t seem to believe the math will work in its favor.
The conference and its commissioner have been steadfast in recent weeks opposing a 24-team format, all the while every other conference seems to favor expansion. The SEC isn’t sold on the idea that the revenue generated by additional playoff inventory, which would be split with other conferences, would amount to more than it already earns from its conference championship game.
One media analyst seems to agree that making the math work on expansion isn’t as straightforward as it seems. Speaking with The Athletic, sports media consultant John Kosner said, “You’re essentially just bringing in more teams with less and less chance of competing for the championship. The media value will grow a bit, but it might not grow to the level schools hope.”
A similar dynamic has played out recently in college basketball. The NCAA Tournament will expand from 68 teams to 76 teams this upcoming season, a move that the NCAA projects will allow it to distribute an addition $131 million to schools over the next six years. Split those additional payments across 365 Division-I basketball schools, and we’re talking about expanding the tournament so each school can receive another $60,000 per year, on average, from the NCAA. Not exactly program-changing money.
There’s no guarantee that there will be a robust market for low-wattage playoff games if expansion comes to pass. Fox, whose executives have come out strongly in favor of an expanded College Football Playoff, didn’t even choose to submit a bid for the postseason when rights were available not even three years ago. In fact, ESPN was the only bidder.
The issue with expansion, of course, is that the additional games are, by definition, the lowest-value games. You can’t add another championship game or a semifinal, as much as the powers that be in college football would love it if they could. Unfortunately, the only way to add games is to place more teams in the first round, where the matchups are the least consequential.
Whether the viewing public would be more interested in an SEC Championship Game or a hypothetical College Football Playoff game between the No. 14 seed and No. 19 seed remains to be seen. But it is certainly fair for the SEC to be skeptical that games featuring the ninth through 24th best teams could be more lucrative than its title game, which regularly pits top-five teams against each other.
The other risk to playoff expansion, critics argue, comes in the regular season. Top-end matchups take on less importance because teams’ playoff futures are already certain.
“If you get to 24 [teams], are there additional teams in November games where their fan bases now have a reason to be more interested? Yes, that’s mathematically true,” an ESPN source posed to The Athletic. “But there’s going to be less interest in what has traditionally been the top end of the sport. The negative impact of those outweighs whatever positive impact you’re going to get from the (lower) games.”
The same source believes the idea that expanded playoffs will encourage teams to schedule tougher nonconference games is something of a fallacy.
“There’s no evidence in the history of the sport that if you tell a coach or a school that a high-level nonconference game means less to your chances of getting into the postseason, that they’re going to keep playing those games,” they told The Athletic.
All of these unknowns muddy the waters for expansion. However, what’s certain is that, unless the SEC and Big Ten get on the same page, there is no way to move forward with any form of expansion. And unless the SEC finds a 24-team playoff financially compelling, talks of a larger bracket could drag on longer than many people think.
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