MMQB – Can Penn State Make the Playoffs?

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

The first year of Matt Campbell’s tenure at Penn State is still 96 days away, and there’s been absurd amounts of roster turnover and coaching upheaval.

But the warm weather has me feeling optimistic, and so MMQB asks: can Penn State make the playoffs in 2026?

Let’s start with a (very high level) record prediction. I most likely will settle on 8-4 for the Lions as my actual prediction, just because I don’t want to get my hopes up. Most likely teams the Lions could lose to include USC, Michigan, Minnesota, and Washington. Or swap out Minnesota for somebody like Northwestern or Wisconsin.

Can the Lions do better than my somewhat pessimistic 8-4? Sure, and maybe 9-3 or 10-2 is more realistic. The Gophers and the Trojans being the two teams most likely to flip into the win column in my opinion.

At 10-2, do the Lions get in?

In 2025, Oklahoma and Miami (FL) were the only two teams to go 10-2 and make the playoffs, and Miami frankly was lucky to get in at the cost of Notre Dame being left out. Note, I think Miami should have been in ahead of Notre Dame, as they’d beaten the Irish head-to-head, but in the penultimate rankings, the Domers were actually ahead of Miami, and should have been in instead.

In 2024, Ohio State and Tennessee both made it at 10-2. So it seems like the magic number of 10-2 teams making it in is two.

Would 10-2 get Penn State in? Can Penn State even make it to 10-2? They’d be playing a first round game for sure, whether hosting or visiting TBD. If they make it in, can they make some real noise? Or is just getting to bowl eligibility in Year 1 the real goal? Let me know your thoughts.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos