Florida State Football Preview 2026: Can the Seminoles Get Their Swagger Back?
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Why has Florida State gone 7-18 in its last 25 games? This isn’t all that hard.
It hasn’t been good.
Yeah, ha ha, very glib, but for a superpower program that’s supposed to be playing for national titles, that’s the problem. There’s not enough talent.
Florida State’s Long Road Back to Being Florida State
Florida State Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Mike Norvell (8th year at Florida State, 38-34;12th year overall, 76-49)
- Best Case / Worst Case: Make a push for the ACC Championship/Seventh losing season in nine years
- Key Player: Ashton Daniels, QB Sr.
- 2025 Record: 5-7
- Biggest Question: Does Florida State have the talent and makeup to be a player in the ACC?
– 2026 Florida State Schedule Analysis
When Jimbo Fisher had the place rocking and rolling again, Florida State had 29 players drafted in the three years surrounding the 2013 national title team.
The 2023 team that went 13-1 had ten players drafted. Since then, just three Seminoles were selected off of the last two teams, and all of them after the second round.
By comparison, Florida – who’s having its own issues – had 14 players drafted over the last two years.
But that’s only part of the problem. FSU was good enough to make Alabama look like it was running in mud in last year’s opener. It pushed Miami, lost a heartbreaker in overtime to Virginia, and …
It lost to Stanford, and by double-digits to mediocre Clemson, NC State, and Florida teams.
The entire program lost its mojo the moment quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a horrible injury in the layup win over North Alabama, and it never got it back.
There’s just no attitude, and that usually comes with teams loaded with lots and lots of talent.
But Norvell is still around, there were some great gets in the transfer portal, and it’s the ACC – it’s gettable.
Florida State Key 2025 Stats
- Fumbles: Florida State 16 (lost 10), Opponents 12 (lost 2)
- 2nd Quarter Scoring: Florida State 141, Opponents 62
- Kickoff Return Average: Florida State 23.1 yards, Opponents 8.5
Offense
You’d never know it from all the criticism the team took throughout last season, but under former offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, Florida State had the ACC’s best statistical offense, and by a lot.
The Noles averaged 12 more yards per game than Georgia Tech, and close to 50 yards more than Duke, and were the only team in the conference to average over 200 rushing yards per game.
Tim Harris Jr. steps up from the wide receivers coach to the offensive coordinator gig, Novell will handle a load of the work as well, and the attack should still be dangerous. Different, but dangerous.
What’s Working
The passing game will be better. It wasn’t totally miserable under former quarterback Thomas Castellanos, but landing Ashton Daniels from Auburn, and previously Stanford, was a strong signing. Daniels won’t run like Castellanos did, but he’ll be far sharper in key moments.
Running backs will get more work now. Castellanos led the team in rushing, and the rest of the workload was spread around to several different backs – none of them finished with more than 500 yards.
Ousmane Kromah averaged 5.7 yards per carry last season, Samuel Singleton averaged over seven yards per pop, and in comes Quintrevion Wisner from Texas, a veteran 200-pounder who brings more blast to the mix.
The explosion from the receiving corps returns. Losing Lawayne McCoy to Louisville hurts, but Duce Robinson led the team with 56 catches, averaging over 19 yards per pop, and Micahi Danzy is back after averaging over 21 yards per catch.
Pass catching tight end Desirrio Riles coming over from East Carolina was big.
What Needs Work
The offensive line needs to be better and more consistent. It was fine for the ground game, but the pass protection – partly because Casetellanos was a runner – wasn’t always great.
The Noles got an instant fit in massive 6-8, 354-pound Xavier Chaplin from Auburn to take over the left tackle job, and 6-5, 309-pound Chimdia Nwaiwu from Stephen F. Austin coming in for the right side.
For the most part, though, other than Chaplin, it’ll take the rest of the offense to come up with the right starting five.
Is Ashton Daniels really ready to be amazing? He did what he could in three years at Stanford, but he threw a ton of picks.
He wasn’t the main man at Auburn for most of the year – remember Jackson Arnold? – and was erratic.
He was wonderful in a win over Arkansas and in a shootout loss against Vanderbilt, but sputtered against Kentucky and Alabama. That’s why …
Completion percentage seems to matter for FSU. This goes along a little bit with the concern about Daniels overall. He’s good, and he’ll upgrade the passing game, but he has only completed 60% passes for his career.
Florida State went 1-6 last year when it didn’t complete 61% of its throws, and is 2-15 over the last two seasons when it doesn’t hit the mark.
Player to Watch
Quintrevion Wisner, RB Sr.
It was an odd year for the Texas running game. The backs weren’t great, but they also didn’t get a ton of help from the line.
Wisner ran for over 1,000 yards and caught 44 passes in 2024, but last year – he was banged up for a stretch – he ran for close to 600 yards and caught 22 passes. He takes the heat off the offense if he can be a do-it-all back when he gets his chances.
Defense
The defense wasn’t too bad in defensive coordinator Tony White’s first season.
There were problems against the run, and there were times when it didn’t hold up in key moments, but overall, the defense was a major improvement from the 2024 clunker.
What’s Working
The run defense really was stronger. The Noles got steamrolled over as the second half of 2024 rolled on, but last year, it allowed just 3.6 yards per carry and gave up over 200 yards three times.
The defensive backs make a few too many tackles in the scheme, but the talent is back to keep it going, starting with …
The linebacking corps should be just as good. There were some big losses – more on that in a moment – but getting Mikai Gbayor from North Carolina and Chris Jones from Southern Miss was nice. The combination of Blake Nichelson and Omar Graham should be steady.
The pass defense meant everything. The Noles were 5-1 when holding teams to under 60% completion rate. The corners are there to be terrific and hold the mediocre passing games down.
What Needs Work
There’s a lot of star power lost through the portal. The Seminoles won their share of battles for talent, but at best, they held serve at most spots.
They lost star safety Earl Little to Ohio State, linebacker Justin Cryer to Texas, playmaking safety Edwin Joseph to Ole Miss, and for a line that needs more of a pass rush, losing Amaree Williams and Jayson Jenkins to Mississippi State, and James Williams to Oklahoma State doesn’t help the depth.
Takeaways. This has been a problem for years, including the great 2023 season. To be fair, last year’s defense was far better at forcing mistakes than the 2024 version that came up with just six turnovers, but it needs to do more.
There were just two fumble recoveries and 14 takeaways overall.
The defensive line needs the tackles to rock. Darrell Jackson is now a New York Jet, and overall there’s not a lot of bulk if 326-pound Kevin Wynn and Texas State transfer Jordan Sanders don’t rock.
Player to Watch
Mandrell Desir, DE Soph.
There’s a glaring lack of superstar power on the defense. That doesn’t mean it’ll be bad, but it needs a few All-ACC stars to work around.
The 6-4, 265-pound Mandrell Desir – along with his 6-5, 264-pound brother, Darryll – have to take over up front. Mandrell made 30 tackles with 6.5 sacks in his first season.
Keys to the Season
This will sound way too murky, but … be Florida State.
There’s talent here, but not nearly enough to make a big push for the national title. It’s going to take consistency, doing everything right, and play with a swagger to at least get back in the ACC Championship mix.
There’s no intimidation factor anymore, but it’s still a program that everyone circles on the schedule.
Be more explosive on both sides of the ball. Play nastier. Bring the pass rush, the firepower, the athleticism, and the things that make Florida State, Florida State EVERY SINGLE GAME.
Player Who Needs To Shine
Andre Otto, OG Jr.
Even the flashiest of FSU teams won because of the infrastructure. The offensive lines never got enough credit during the great years, and this one has to be stronger.
It starts with more from the interior around Otto, a 6-5, 315-pound veteran who goes from being a part of the rotation to a bigger role. The tools are there to be a tough, technical leader.
Biggest Concern
Keeping the ground game moving.
Even though there should be more through the air, Florida State won when it ran. That should continue this year, along with a balanced attack, even if it’s in a different way.
The Noles went 5-1 when rushing for at least three scores – the one blemish was against Virginia, and didn’t get multiple scores on the ground in the six losses.
Biggest Game
at Louisville, October 9
Everyone will make a huge deal out of the trip to Alabama, and dates against Miami, Clemson, and Florida will matter, but realistically, Goal One has to be to rock in the ACC title chase, and that’s not happening without a win over the Cardinals.
Transfer Portal
Ehhhhhhh, it’s fine.
Of course the Noles were able to bring in plenty of big-time talents other schools could only dream of considering, but across the board, there’s just enough WOW factor for a 5-7 program that needs to play for big things again.
That’s partly because there are plenty of young parts in place to build around, and there really are positives, especially in the offensive backfield.
Best Signing
Xavier Chaplin, OT (Auburn)
You want star power from the transfer portal? The 6-8, 354-pound Auburn transfer has NFL upside, even if he’s a bit bulky for a left tackle. The tools are there to work the entire offense around him on the left side.
Biggest Loss
Earl Little, Jr., S (Ohio State)
No, he’s not even close to being Caleb Downs, but he’s got the skills to be the next safety to make a massive impact on the Buckeye defense.
Little started at Alabama, moved to Florida State, and finally broke through in his fourth season, making a team-high 76 tackles with four picks in an all-star season.
Other Names to Know
- Mikai Gbayor, LB (North Carolina)
- Rylan Kennedy, EDGE (Texas A&M)
- Ma’Khi Jones, S (Duke)
CFN Season Prediction
What about the last two years would suggest that Florida State is about to be a major player again?
The program that was the model of consistent greatness throughout the 80s and 90s is on a brutal run of six losing seasons in the last eight, and it’s not like anything massive changed this offseason.
CFN Prediction: 6-6
The Seminoles should be better, and they weren’t all that terrible at times last season. It’s just about playing at a high level each and every week, even if the talent isn’t partying like it’s 1999.
The schedule isn’t that bad. Going to Alabama and Miami are massive problems, but any team worthy of making a push for the College Football Playoff – which, by the way, is absolutely there with the right blend and the right breaks in an if-Duke-could-win-the-ACC way – needs to take down Louisville, Boston College, and Pitt on the road.
But there’s a “prove it” factor now. It might not be the shocking breakthrough campaign FSU fans want, but it won’t be a losing season.
Related: 26 for 2026: 26 Key Questions for the ACC Football Season
This story was originally published by College Football News on Jun 1, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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