Notre Dame, Miami, or a Big 12 Team? Who Did Oklahoma Knock Out of the CFP?

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There are still plenty of crazy twists and turns sure to come over the last few weeks of the college football season.

There will be upsets, and there will be shockers, or the shocker could be that there won't be any shockers. But going into Week 13, one thing has become very, very clear.

Thanks to Oklahoma's win over Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, or a second Big 12 team will need plenty of help to get into the College Football Playoff.

There are only 12 spots. If OU is in, that means someone big has to be left out. Here are three key teams who need to be worried.

Oklahoma’s win over Alabama, and its Impact on College Football Playoff Contenders

Nov 15, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) calls an audible at the line of scrimmage against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

First, forget the No. 9 ranking for the Irish in the last round of the CFP top 25. That gets thrown out and redone this coming week, and it all gets crumpled up and thrown into a ball in the final rankings.

Miami being 15 at the moment won't really matter, either … maybe.

BYU was 12 and Utah 13 after last week.

The College Football Playoff committee cares about conference champions. Win your conference title, and then it all flows from there.

Again, there's a lot that still needs to happen, but for now, just assume that Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas Tech (or a Big 12 champion), Ole Miss, the ACC Champion (if it's not Miami), and the Oregon/USC winner are in. That's eight, with four more spots to go.

Nov 15, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Oklahoma Sooners cheerleaders celebrate as the Oklahoma Sooners defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide 23-21 at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium.© Gary Cosby Jr&period;-Imagn Images

Let's also go with Oklahoma for one spot. It gets Missouri and LSU at home to close, and barring a clunker, it should be 10-2 and in.

Alabama might have lost to the Sooners, but if it beats Auburn – and assuming a win over Eastern Illinois – it'll almost certainly be in the SEC Championship. Considering the CFP doesn't punish conference championship losses, it said so last year, assume it's in. And if it doesn't get to the SEC title game, it'll still likely be a lock at 10-2.

That leaves two openings.

One spot has to go to a Group of Five champion – it doesn't matter if it's James Madison from the Sun Belt, or the American Conference champ.

And now we're down to one more opening, and here's where Notre Dame, Miami, or a second Big 12 team is in big trouble.

Again, this is making the big assumption that Oklahoma gets by Missouri and LSU with ease.

What Miami needs to make the College Football Playoff

Nov 15, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes tight end Elija Lofton (9) celebrates with tight end Alex Bauman (87) after scoring a touchdown against NC State Wolfpack during the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium.© Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Virginia beating Duke means it has to beat Virginia Tech – never a given in this rivalry – to make the ACC Championship. Georgia Tech is in the ACC title game if it beats Pitt, but …

Miami needs Pitt to beat Georgia Tech

If that happens, the Miami regular-season finale against the Panthers will be for a spot in the ACC Championship if …

SMU has to lose again

The Mustangs have three losses, but if Pitt beats Georgia Tech, they're in the ACC Championship if they beat Louisville and Cal, and Miami beats Pitt.

Miami has to obliterate Pitt

Miami has to look the part against Virginia Tech and Pitt. Win those two games by a gazillion, and …

Miami 27, Notre Dame 24

That's a tough look if both the Hurricanes and Irish are 10-2, and the committee goes with the team that lost to the other.

Will Miami get into the College Football Playoff?

Best guess … no.

Either it'll lose to Pitt when it's a little chilly, or it'll be too hard to move up.

There's too much traffic, and even though the Louisville and SMU losses were close, the committee didn't like them. Fair or not, there's not much the Hurricanes can do to be that much better in the rankings than …

What Notre Dame needs to make the College Football Playoff

Nov 15, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman leads the team from the locker room to play the Pittsburgh Panthers at Acrisure Stadium.© Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

There's still plenty of hope, Irish fans.

Again, these things always tend to work out, but this is what you should root for, assuming the Irish don't lose to Syracuse or Stanford.

Miami has to lose to Pitt

That does it. That saves Notre Dame's bacon, because then Miami will be 9-3, and it'll be extremely easy to justify putting in a 10-2 Irish team coming in on a roll.

Or, then the Irish might be fine if Pitt beats Georgia Tech. The Miami vs Pitt loser would be out of the ACC Championship, the winner would almost certainly be in against Virginia, and then a spot should open up for Notre Dame.

The College Football Playoff Committee might just take Notre Dame over Miami

The Irish look the part. It's possible the committee twists its logic and somehow justifies putting in 10-2 Notre Dame over 10-2 Miami. It would break precedent, but Marcus Freeman's bunch really does look fantastic.

Miami losing to SMU and Louisville isn't okay.

Ever since going 0-2, Notre Dame has won every game by double-digits, helped because …

The Irish need USC to beat Oregon

Oregon should be the favorite at home when the Ducks and Trojans meet, but if USC wins and finishes 10-2, and one of its losses was to Notre Dame by ten, that's it. The Irish are in over USC.

Navy winning the American Conference would help

Notre Dame 45, Navy 10. If the Midshipmen are in the CFP as the American champ at the 12, it'll put in Notre Dame at the 11, at least.

SEC Chaos

Oklahoma could biff against Missouri or LSU. Georgia could be shocked by Georgia Tech, Alabama could have a bad day against Auburn, and/or Mississippi State could beat Ole Miss. If any of those things happen, the door is open.

Will Notre Dame get into the College Football Playoff?

Best guess … yes.

Something quirky will happen – most likely, it if does, it's Miami losing to Pitt – but the Irish will do their part. Somehow, there will be a one-spot decision to make, and Notre Dame will probably get the call.

What the Big 12 Championship loser needs to make the College Football Playoff

The Big 12 is a better conference than the ACC this season. It dominated the head-to-head battles, it's far stronger up top, and …

The Big 12 is about to have a problem getting a second team into the College Football Playoff. There isn't enough room.

Miami has to get out of the way

Lose to Pitt, and that's a massive barrier the Big 12 Championship loser won't have to deal with.

BYU has to be amazing

It has to be BYU.

Utah and Houston won't have enough juice to get in as an at-large team.

The Cougars need to roll by Cincinnati on the road and blow out UCF to finish 11-1 with the lone loss to Texas Tech. The respect is there for the Red Raiders, so …

BYU beats Texas Tech in a thriller of a Big 12 Championship

BYU would be in at 12-1 as the Big 12 champ, but would 11-2 Texas Tech get a spot? Over Notre Dame, no, and probably not over Miami, but it would be close.

Will a second Big 12 team get into the College Football Playoff?