Mountain West Football 2026 Predictions

NCAAF College Football
June 5, 2026
Air Force Falcons, College Football, Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, Nevada Wolf Pack, New Mexico Lobos, North Dakota State Bison, Northern Illinois Huskies, San Jose State Spartans, Sports, UNLV Runnin Rebels, UTEP Miners, Wyoming Cowboys

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The Mountain West’s membership for the 2026 college football season looks quite a bit different than the version the conference ended with in ‘25. North Dakota State, UTEP, and Northern Illinois joined the league after Boise State, Colorado State, Utah State, San Diego State, and Fresno State departed to the Pac-12. Although the conference is navigating significant changes, the evolving membership is an opportunity for new powers to emerge.

UNLV and New Mexico top the list of contenders entering ‘26, with Hawaii and North Dakota State a small step behind. Air Force could surprise behind quarterback Liam Szarka, while Wyoming, Nevada, and San Jose State have the potential to push for a bowl appearance. UTEP and Northern Illinois have several question marks to address but aim to surprise in their MW debut.

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How does Athlon Sports project the Mountain West for 2026? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks all 10 teams in the Mountain West for this fall:

Change is the biggest storyline for NIU in 2026. The Huskies are switching conferences, moving from the MAC to the Mountain West. As if that shift wasn’t enough to navigate, coach Thomas Hammock departed to take a NFL job with the Seahawks in mid-February, prompting athletic director Sean Frazier to promote defensive coordinator Rob Harley to an interim role for ‘26. With just four returning starters, Harley has a tough assignment ahead for the program’s Mountain West debut. A quarterback battle between Jalen Macon, Brady Davidson and Ean Hamric will continue into the fall, but the focal point of the offense should be the ground attack behind running back Telly Johnson Jr. Harley’s defense returns zero starters, but the combination of incoming transfers and experienced players already on the roster should keep this unit respectable in the Mountain West.

The ‘26 season is a critical one for third-year coach Scotty Walden. UTEP is 5-19 over the last two seasons, and a shift to the Mountain West won’t make things any easier for a program in rebuild mode. If the Miners are going to make a jump to bowl eligibility, improving an offense that ranked No. 129 nationally in success rate and averaged only 5.1 yards per play is a must. Walden and new co-coordinators Joe Pappalardo and Lanear Sampson are counting on a couple of transfers to elevate this group, starting with Incarnate Word (and former UCF) transfer quarterback EJ Colson. A healthy year from receiver Kam Thomas can make a difference for this offense, while fellow newcomers in running back Tavorus Jones (Missouri) and a couple of projected starters up front, need to quickly deliver on their potential. UTEP’s defense held teams to a respectable 5.4 yards per play last fall. Just four starters are back, but this unit has potential again behind linebacker Jayden Wilson, safety Xavier Smith, and tackle Ashton Coker. If the offense takes a major step forward, the Miners could surprise in their Mountain West debut.

The Spartans were projected among the Mountain West’s top teams last offseason after a solid 7-6 debut under coach Ken Niumatalolo in ‘24. However, San Jose State disappointed with a 3-9 record. A minus-12 turnover margin, along with a defense that took a step back, were two primary reasons for the regression. Reversing that trend in ‘26 starts at quarterback. Can the Spartans get quality play from either Robert McDaniel, Daniel Rolovich, or Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver? If they can, a line that returns only two starters is a concern, but coordinator Craig Stutzmann has intriguing skill talent to work with, including receivers Jerry McClure, Anthony Ivey, Jordan Anderson, and Malachi Riley. Bojay Filimoeatu was promoted to defensive coordinator after working as the interim play-caller late in the ‘25 season. The former Utah State standout linebacker has his work cut out this fall. The Spartans return zero starters and lost nine of their top 10 tacklers from last year’s group. Senior linebacker Ethan Powell should be a key cog in the rebuilding effort.

The Wolf Pack are making slow progress under coach Jeff Choate with back-to-back three-win seasons. Making a jump into bowl contention will hinge on one area: Offensive improvement. Nevada averaged only 17.6 points a game and five yards a play last year. This unit has a new coordinator (Brett Bartolone), along with a quarterback battle that should extend deep into the fall with sophomore Carter Jones battling UCLA transfer Luke Duncan. The return of Jack Foster and Zach Cochnauer gives the Wolf Pack two of the Mountain West’s top returning offensive linemen. A couple of portal additions should provide needed help for Bartolone at receiver, while running back Herschel Turner could push for All-Mountain West honors. Choate’s defense features one of the conference’s top players in end Dylan Labarbera (17 TFL in ‘25), and the linebacker duo of EJ Smith and Jeremy Naborne-Owens is solid. Five transfers were also added to solidify the secondary.

With a 7-17 record in his first two seasons, coach Jay Sawvel desperately needs to show progress in ‘26. Sawvel took steps to do just that by hitting the reset button on an offense that has averaged over five yards a play in back-to-back years. New coordinator Christian Taylor spent the last two seasons with the Buffalo Bills but was instrumental in developing prolific attacks at William & Mary from 2020-23. Help is also on the way from the transfer portal, as former William & Mary quarterback Tyler Hughes joins forces with his old play-caller for one season in Laramie. Running back Samuel “Tote” Harris (558 yards) returns after a promising freshman campaign, and Sawvel has assembled some nice pieces at receiver and along the offensive line. Wyoming’s rugged defense held teams to 20.5 points a game last year but faces significant turnover with just two starters back. Senior linebacker Ethan Stuhlsatz and defensive back Desman Hearns headline this group for coordinator Aaron Bohl. If the Cowboys find the right answers up front, this defense may not miss a beat in ‘26.

With rising star quarterback Liam Szarka returning, Air Force seems poised to snap a streak of back-to-back losing records. Szarka powered the Falcons’ ground game last year with 922 yards and 13 touchdowns, but he’ll have additional help from fullback Owen Allen (750 yards) and tailback Rocco Conti. Coach Troy Calhoun’s offense needs new faces to emerge at receiver and along the offensive line to contend for a spot in the Mountain West title game. The need for answers continues on defense. New coordinator Steve Russ inherited a group that allowed a whopping 7.2 yards per play and surrendered 34.9 points in Mountain West games last year. A revamped line is Russ’ biggest concern, as standout linebacker Blake Fletcher is back on the second level, and safety Roger Jones Jr. headlines an experienced secondary.

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The Bison are equipped to contend for the Mountain West title in their first season at the FBS level. Coach Tim Polasek’s team brings back eight starters off a 12-win ‘25 squad, including three along an offensive line that’s among the best in the conference. New quarterback Nathan Hayes displayed flashes of potential in limited snaps last season, while the ground game is in good hands with DJ Scott (502 yards in ‘25) primed for a larger role. A revamped receiving corps is Polasek’s biggest concern on offense. The Bison have to plug a few gaps at every level on defense, but this unit has enough returning talent to rank near the top of the Mountain West, especially with linebacker Donovan Woolen and tackle Keenan Wilson leading the way. North Dakota State should navigate the transition to the FBS level with relative ease. However, the schedule does present a tough assignment for Polasek’s squad. The Bison play four of the top contenders – Air Force, UNLV, New Mexico, and Hawaii – on the road in ‘26.

Coming off the program’s best finish (9-4) under coach Timmy Chang, the Rainbow Warriors are poised to contend for a spot in the Mountain West title game. Hawaii’s high-powered offense (31.6 points a game in conference play) returns star quarterback Micah Alejado and top receiver Pofele Ashlock. Chang has to restock the weapons around Alejado after a couple of departures, with Washington transfer Audric Harris likely primed for a breakout season at receiver. A revamped line is the only thing that could slow Chang’s offense. Question marks surround a defense returning three starters. Also, standout linebacker Jamih Otis is on the mend from a knee injury suffered late in the ‘25 season. Lineman Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina should be one of the leaders for this unit, while Elijah Palmer anchors a secondary in transition. With North Dakota State, New Mexico, and UNLV coming to Honolulu, the Rainbow Warriors have a favorable path to a spot in the conference championship.

It’s a close call between the Lobos and UNLV for the No. 1 spot in the Mountain West. The Lobos were among the most-improved teams in college football last season in coach Jason Eck’s debut, finishing 9-4 and just missing out on a spot in the conference title game. With 12 returning starters, Eck’s squad has all of the pieces to rank among the top Group of 6 teams. A loaded offense (6.9 yards per play last season) returns quarterbacks Jack Layne and James Laubstein and all five starters along the line. Senior Scottre Humphrey should be among the top running backs in the Mountain West, while tight end Cade Keith and receiver Troy Omeire (UNLV transfer) provide support on the outside. After giving up 38 points a game in ‘24, the Lobos cut that total to 22.3 a contest last year behind new coordinator Spence Nowinsky. Five starters are back, including standout linebacker Jaxton Eck, safety Austin Brawley, and lineman Darren Agu. This unit could be the best defense in the Mountain West. With key games against North Dakota State and UNLV coming in Albuquerque, New Mexico has a favorable schedule to a spot in the MW title game.

The Rebels have played for the Mountain West title in three straight years but came up short each time against Boise State. With the Broncos moving on to the Pac-12, UNLV could finally bring home a conference championship. For coach Dan Mullen’s team to win the Mountain West and potentially contend for a spot in the playoff, both sides of the ball will require some retooling with only six overall starters back. However, Mullen’s track record of producing prolific offenses suggests he will find the right mix on that side of the ball once again. Former Oklahoma and Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold should be a great fit in Mullen’s offense. The senior won’t have to carry this unit, especially with running back Jai’Den Thomas headlining a collection of promising skill talent. Improving the defense is priority No. 1 for Mullen this offseason. UNLV ranked 11th in the Mountain West last year by allowing 6.4 yards per play. Early September tests against Memphis and Hawaii (road) will give Mullen valuable insight into just how far along the defense has progressed under second-year coordinator Paul Guenther.

UNLV over New Mexico

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jun 5, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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Mountain West Football 2026 Predictions

UNLV over New Mexico

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