Oregon Ducks' CFP chances increase, per ESPN Football Power Index

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Over the past couple of weeks, the Oregon Ducks won games in non-Oregon Duck-type ways. In a monsoon against the Wisconsin Badgers, and a wet and ugly game against the Iowa Hawkeyes, Dan Lanning's team matched the physicality and won by putting a total of 39 points on the board.

In Week 11 against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, Oregon returned to its classic offensive form, winning in blowout fashion, 42-13, with 501 yards of total offense.

It was a good showing for Duck fans to see, with Dante Moore having a career day, and Will Stein calling one of his best games as Oregon's offensive coordinator. Going forward, though, there are no longer any stress-free games on the Ducks' schedule, with the USC Trojans coming to town next week, followed by a trip to Seattle to face the Washington Huskies in the regular-season finale.

Should Oregon get out of those two games unscathed, it will get into the College Football Playoff without a sense of stress. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, their probability of getting into the postseason has increased over the past few days.

For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, examining their rosters, schedules, and winning percentages, and ultimately determining where they stand after the season concludes.

In short, it examines Oregon's 2025 schedule and predicts the percentage of wins the Ducks should achieve. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. While it may not be perfect, it provides a glimpse into how deeper metrics evaluate the team. Let's take a look at what the numbers say going into the Week 13 game vs. USC.

Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans — Week 13

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 70.7%

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 70.7%

Analysis: USC's offense has been impressive so far this year, but the Ducks' defense is among the best in the nation, and they get this game at home. On top of that, the Trojans' defense is average, at best, and Oregon should be able to find some success offensively here. Regardless, this should be an entertaining top-15 matchup.

For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire!

Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies — Week 14

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.7%

Previous Percent Chance to Win: 79.7%

Analysis: This was shaping up to be a potential playoff game between Oregon and Washington, with the winner clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff, but the Huskies fell to the Wisconsin Badgers on the road last week, effectively ending any chance of high stakes in this matchup. While it will still be a tough road game in Seattle and a fun renewal of the rivalry, Washington has shown some real weaknesses over the past seven days.

For more Washington news and analysis, check out UW Huskies Wire!

Overall Oregon Ducks Season Outlook

Percent Chance to Win Out: 47.4%

Previous FPI %: 44.2%

Percent Chance to Win Conference: 4.4%

Previous FPI %: 3.6%

Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 89.5%

Previous FPI %: 86.4%

Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 19.2%

Previous FPI %: 18.1%

Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 8.8%

Previous FPI %: 7.9%

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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Ducks see CFP chances increase, per ESPN Football Power Index

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