UCF Football Preview 2026: Time to Win Like a Big 12 Team
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UCF is getting there.
No, this isn’t an “I told you so” thing, but yeah, there’s a difference between ripping up a Group of Six conference like the American – with one or two giant wins a year over the big boys – and dealing with the week-in-and-week-out life in a Power Four league.
UCF Has to Start Playing Up To Its Power Four Status
UCF was on a six-year run of winning seasons as a star in the American Conference.
It got the call to the show in 2023, joined the Big 12, and now it’s in the midst of three straight losing seasons with a 7-20 conference record.
Since moving up, UCF has two wins in three years over Power Four teams that finished with a winning record.
There was just one of those from 2014 to 2022 when the program was in the American – the celebrated Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl over Auburn to finish the 2017 season.
It’s coming. UCF is a Power Four program, and now it’s time to win like it.
UCF Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Scott Frost (2nd year, in his second stint, 5-7; 9th year overall, 40-45)
- Best Case / Worst Case: Be in the Big 12 race in November/Yet another losing season
- Key Player: Alonza Barnett III, QB Sr.
- 2025 Record: 5-7
- Biggest Question: Can the offense recreate the old explosive magic?
UCF Key 2025 Stats
- Penalties: UCF 91 for 686 yards, Opponents 65 for 586 yards
- UCF Points Allowed: 1st Quarter 42, 2nd Quarter 122
- Points Per Game: UCF 24.3, Opponents 23.6
Offense
The offense needs to be better.
The wins weren’t there, but the offense moved in the first two Big 12 seasons with Gus Malzahn as the head coach. The Knights were second in the conference in total offense in both years.
Last season, it was 12th, averaging just 379 yards per game after hitting 448 the season before. Offensive coordinator Steve Cooper and Frost brought in the parts to change this around fast.
What’s Working
The transfer portal. Frost had some nice pieces in place last year, but there wasn’t enough consistency or explosion. That’s about to change with the loaded group of transfers coming in.
It all starts with getting more out of the offensive line that was okay at times, but too leaky overall when it came to keeping defenses out of the backfield.
Veteran Preston Cushman is back at one tackle spot, and then it’s all about the transfers, starting with Brady Wayburn (UConn) who can play just about anywhere, and center Cooper Terpstra (Michigan State).
The Knights just got stronger at quarterback. Tayven Jackson was okay, but James Madison’s Alonza Barnett III is a far more dangerous all-around playmaker, and FIU’s Keyon Jenkins is a wonderful second option.
The rest of the offense is about the transfers, but the receiving corps has in-house veterans to rely on.
There’s help from the portal here, too – ULM’s Jonathan Bibbs will be a problem on the outside – but leading receiver Duane Thomas is back after making 43 catches, and Waden Charles is back after finishing third on the team with 26 grabs.
What Needs Work
Third down conversions. This was a massive problem, finishing 117th in the nation, converting just 34% of the time.
After starting the season 3-0, the Knight offense couldn’t move the chains, failing to get past 35% six times in the next seven games, losing all six.
Start pushing the ball down the field more. UCF had a horrible combination of not coming up with first downs and failing to hit the deep shots.
Tayven Jackson only averaged 6.8 yards per attempt – the team averaged 6.6. Alonza Barnett averaged 7.9 over the last two seasons at JMU.
Passing yards – get them. The Knights were okay when running well, but everything stopped when they couldn’t crank it up through the air. UCF was 0-5 when failing to generate 200 passing yards.
Player to Watch
Alonza Barnett III, QB Sr.
UCF had some amazing quarterbacks over the years, and Barnett might be the best since Dillon Gabriel was around in 2021.
He’s a great all-around playmaker who makes big things happen. Last year, he threw for over 2,800 yards with 23 touchdowns and just eight picks, ran for close to 600 yards and 15 scores.
Defense
UCF has been 37th in the nation in total defense in each of the last two years – allowing 339 yards per game in 2024 and 336 last season – and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has the guy in place to do even more.
The transfer portal helped more with the depth than the starters, at least compared to the offense, but that’s mostly because so much talent is back.
What’s Working
Unlike the offensive side, the defense was good on third downs.
The Knights had a few issues – they couldn’t seem to slow down much over a rough three-game stretch to start November – but they held teams to under 35% on third downs six times and allowed 37% on the season.
Four of the five starters are back in the secondary. Safety Demari Henderson was third on the team with 61 tackles, corners Jayden Bellamy and Antoine Jackson combined for 13 broken up passes, and on the way is Ty Bartrum from Harvard after an 83-tackle season.
The veteran tackle combination of RJ Jackson and Horace Lockett is strong. The two combined for 54 tackles with eight tackles for loss, and they’re getting help from the portal to help the rotation. The 6-3, 310-pound Jackson will likely earn All-Big 12 honors again.
What Needs Work
How do you replace a dominant all-star pass rush? New Dallas Cowboy Malachi Lawrence – no pressure, son, just be the next Micah Parsons – made seven sacks and 11 tackles for loss last year, and Nyjalik Kelly made three sacks and seven tackles for loss.
Akron’s Bruno Dall made 44 tackles with four sacks last year. Ken Talley (Arkansas) and LA Jessie Harrold (Florida State) bring Power Four athleticism and upside with a real shot to make some noise.
More takeaways. There were only 16 on the year, and six came in the wins over Oklahoma State and Cincinnati. The defense failed to come up with multiple turnovers against anyone else and finished with a mere four fumble recoveries.
The run defense has to be consistently better on the road. It was great at home, allowing fewer than 155 rushing yards in five out of six games. It gave up more than 170 yards in all seven games away from the Bounce House.
Player to Watch
Lewis Carter, LB Sr.
A decent part of the Oklahoma rotation for two seasons, the 6-0, 225-pounder came to UCF and became a star in the UCF linebacking corps.
He should’ve earned All-Big 12 honors after leading the team with 92 tackles, two sacks, and four tackles for loss. Those will be coming this year.
Keys to the Season
- Get more pop out of the offense
- Hope new PK Will Stone (Texas) can be as strong as Noe Ruelas (15-of-17 last year)
- The transfers on the offensive line have to not just jell, but improve the production
Player Who Needs To Shine
Jonathan Bibbs, WR Soph.
UCF has to get more pop and explosion in the passing game, and that means the receivers have to be far more dangerous.
The 6-2 Bibbs comes in from ULM where he averaged 16.6 yards per catch. He’ll get every shot to take the spot on the outside.
Biggest Concern
Is Scott Frost really a Power Four head coach?
When Frost took over UCF the first time, he inherited a 0-12 team from the 2015 season and went 6-7 with a bowl appearance. The next season, he went 13-0.
That was his only winning season in seven full campaigns as a head coach.
He hasn’t had a lot of luck – his Nebraska teams invented wildly creative ways to lose brutally close games – but 2017 was a long time ago.
You don’t do what he did the first time around with UCF without being good at this. This year, though, he and the staff have to make their own breaks – this latest transfer portal class was a good start.
Biggest Game
TCU, September 26
It’s one of those home games you can’t lose.
TCU will be really good, but it has to come to Orlando in late September, and UCF should be gelled by this point.
If the Knights lose the Big 12 opener, there’s a huge problem with road trips to Houston and Oklahoma State ahead.
Transfer Portal
A few stars were gone, but overall, this is the haul that will make or break UCF football for the next two years.
Frost went heavy on depth, athleticism, and with a little something for everywhere, including the kickers.
There might not be a ton of grand slam home run signings, but there are a whole bunch of rock-solid stand-up doubles.
Best Signing
Brady Wayburn, OT (UConn)
The 6-5, 305-pounder isn’t huge, and getting Henry Tabansi from Buffalo might be a little more important on the left side, but Wayburn is a ready-made blocker at either guard or tackle. You want your run blocker, here he is.
Biggest Loss
John Walker, DT (Ohio State)
It’s never easy to lose an active defensive tackle with Walker’s size and quickness, but Ohio State wanted him, and that was that. The 6-4, 325-pounder made 40 tackles with a sack last year.
Other Names to Know
- Henry Tabansi, OT (Buffalo)
- Cooper Terpstram, C (Michigan State)
- Tackett Curtis, LB (Wisconsin)
CFN Season Prediction
There’s a Prove It factor now when it comes to UCF.
It isn’t that it keeps losing. It’s that it’s not even close.
The 2024 team that went 4-8 lost five games by double-digits. Last year, UCF outscored its opponents 292 to 283, and six of the seven losses were by nine points or more, with November blastings by Baylor, Texas Tech, and BYU by 20 points or more.
But don’t be afraid to think that Frost needed a rebuilding year to get things back up to speed. This year’s team really is better than last year’s 5-7 team.
CFN Prediction: 6-6
The Knights started out last year 3-0 with a blowout win over North Carolina, and only beat blah West Virginia and Oklahoma State teams the rest of the way.
This year, it’ll beat Bethune-Cookman and Georgia State, but going to Pitt isn’t easy. Oklahoma State won’t be a breeze this time around, and that’s in Stillwater.
There’s a wonderful run from early October until the regular-season finale against Colorado with just one road game, and three of the four Big 12 road dates are against three of last year’s worst Big 12 teams – the Cowboys, Buffaloes, and Kansas.
There’s no Arizona, Kansas State, Texas Tech, or Utah to face, but just about everything on this slate is a 50/50 game.
Related: Big 12 Football Win Totals 2026: Spring Predictions for All 16 Teams
This story was originally published by College Football News on Jun 7, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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