Big 12 Football 2026 Predictions

NCAAF College Football
June 15, 2026
Arizona State Sun Devils, Arizona Wildcats, Baylor Bears, BYU Cougars, Cincinnati Bearcats, College Football, Colorado Buffaloes, Houston Cougars, Iowa State Cyclones, Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Oklahoma State Cowboys, Sports, TCU Horned Frogs, Texas Tech Red Raiders, UCF Knights, Utah Utes, West Virginia Mountaineers

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Texas Tech and BYU begin the 2026 college football season where the two programs ended last year. The Red Raiders and Cougars were the top two teams in the Big 12 in ‘25 and open as the favorites to meet in the conference title game once again. Texas Tech reloaded through the transfer portal, reeling in top quarterback Brendan Sorsby and a handful of replacements for a defense that made massive strides last fall. The Cougars return rising star quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin to go with a top defense. Coach Kalani Sitake’s team appears to be a step behind Texas Tech, but the schedule is also favorable to expect a run at an at-large spot in the playoff if BYU can’t win the Big 12.

Houston and Utah are the top contenders to Texas Tech and BYU, but Arizona, Kansas State, Arizona State, Oklahoma State and TCU could all contend for a finish in the top 25 or put together a run at the conference title game if the right pieces fall into place. Expect Kansas and West Virginia to return to the bowl scene in ‘26, with Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado and UCF in the next tier. Iowa State’s progression under new coach Jimmy Rogers is an intriguing storyline with zero returning starters.

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How does Athlon Sports project the Big 12 for 2026? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks all 16 teams in the Big 12 for this fall:

New coach Jimmy Rogers has big shoes to fill in replacing Matt Campbell. Rogers is 33-9 overall from stints at South Dakota State and Washington State, but a Cyclones’ squad returning zero starters will test his ability to reload at the power conference level. Rogers and his staff hit the transfer portal hard for help on both sides of the ball. Arkansas State transfer quarterback Jaylen Raynor headlines the offense, but the success of this unit is likely to hinge on how effective a rebuilt line performs. The need for new faces to quickly emerge continues on defense, where coordinator Jesse Bobbit can build around a few proven Cyclones in linemen Zaimir Hawk and Jace J. Gilbert, linebacker Carson Willich and defensive backs David Coffey and Drew Surges. And similar to the offense, Iowa State needs a handful of transfers to make an instant impact to keep this unit performing at a similar level (20.2 points a game allowed) to the ‘25 version. With a new staff and largely revamped roster, the Cyclones are clearly a team in transition for ‘26.

In coach Scott Frost’s first tenure at UCF, the Knights went 6-7 in his debut (2016), followed by a 13-0 mark the following year. Can Frost replicate that success again? After a 5-7 mark and two losses by one score, small improvement would lead UCF back to the postseason. More production on offense is a must after the Knights averaged only 19.2 points in Big 12 play last fall. Transfer quarterback Alonza Barnett III (James Madison) should provide a spark, and Frost has plenty of intriguing playmakers to deploy at the skill spots. The backfield is in good shape with transfers in Duke Watson (Louisville) and Landen Chambers (Central Arkansas) and redshirt freshman Taevion Swint leading the way. Additionally, receivers Duane Thomas and Waden Charles, along with tight end Dylan Wade, headline a solid group of pass catchers. Just one starter returns on the offensive line, however. The defense also has room to improve after giving up 28.6 points in Big 12 contests last year. Six starters are back to form a solid foundation, with the secondary likely to rank among the best in the Big 12. The concerns for coordinator Alex Grinch reside up front with a rebuilt line and departure of standout Malachi Lawrence.

Coach Deion Sanders made major changes to the staff and roster following last year’s disappointing 3-9 season. After winning nine games in 2024, the regression on last year’s squad was steep. However, Sanders’ busy offseason should add optimism for improvement in ‘26. New offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is one of the rising stars in the assistant ranks and has a promising quarterback to develop in redshirt freshman Julian Lewis. The Buffaloes have ample weapons at the skill spots, including San Jose State transfer receiver Danny Scudero who arrives in Boulder after a prolific campaign (88 catches for 1,297 yards), former Texas pass catcher DeAndre Moore and running backs DeKalon Taylor and Micah Welch. The offensive line has seemingly been a question mark every year under Sanders and remains a concern in ‘26. Colorado’s defense is also under new leadership with Chris Marve taking over the play-calling duties. The former standout Vanderbilt linebacker essentially has a clean slate with zero starters. Talent isn’t lacking, however. The transfer class included intriguing pickups in safety Randon Fontenette (Vanderbilt), linebacker Liona Lefau (Texas), and lineman Santana Hopper (Tulane).

After a 6-1 start last year, the Bearcats struggled down the stretch with a 1-5 finish. Although the winning record and bowl trip cooled the pressure a bit on coach Scott Satterfield, a slow start to ‘26 could raise plenty of question marks about the program’s overall direction again. Just four starters are back, but three of those – Joe Cotton, Evan Tengesdahl and Taran Tyo – form the foundation of one of the Big 12’s top offensive lines. Georgia Southern transfer JC French IV is expected to replace Brendan Sorsby under center. Although French is working behind a top-notch line, the skill talent is also in transition. Senior linebacker Jonathan Thompson is the lone returning starter on defense, and Satterfield hit the portal hard for help at all three levels to restock a unit that allowed 28.7 points in Big 12 play last season. Additionally, veteran coordinator Nate Woody was hired from Army to call the defensive signals. With all of the new pieces, it may take this defense time to settle into place.

It’s a make-or-break year for coach Dave Aranda. Baylor is 36-37 under his watch but has posted two losing records over the last three years. Considering Aranda’s track record as a defensive coordinator prior to taking over in Waco, it’s surprising to see the Bears give up 33.4 points in Big 12 play. Former Kansas State coordinator Joe Klanderman will handle the play-calling duties this year, while the hope of a heavy transfer class, along with a return to full health by linebacker Travion Barnes and defensive back Devin Turner, helps this unit improve significantly. Intrigue surrounds Baylor’s offense with Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway taking over. Lagway is immensely talented but struggled with injuries in ‘24 and never quite lived up to high preseason expectations. However, this opportunity in Waco to learn under play-caller Jake Spavital is an excellent bounce-back situation. Dawson Pendergrass returns from injury to power the ground attack, with a rebuilt offensive line among the biggest concerns for Aranda.

Coach Lance Leipold has brought significant improvement to Kansas, but the program is coming off back-to-back losing seasons. Can Leipold get the Jayhawks back to a winning mark and a bowl in ‘26? Accomplishing that largely depends on how the offense reloads behind the winner of a three-man competition at quarterback with Chase Jenkins and Isaiah Marshall pushing Cole Ballard this fall. This unit should get a boost with the return of Andy Kotelnicki as play-caller, while the one-two punch of Dylan Edwards and Yasin Willis in the backfield is promising. The offensive line should be solid, but Kotelnicki will be breaking in a couple of new targets at receiver. Kansas has room to improve on defense after giving up 29.4 points per contest in Big 12 play last fall. The front has promise with end Leroy Harris III and linebacker Trey Lathan back, but the pass defense must improve after finishing ‘25 ranked No. 75 nationally in success rate.

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A step forward should be in order for the Mountaineers in 2026. For the second year in a row, coach Rich Rodriguez used the offseason to reset the roster. As a result, the program is in a better spot and has a deeper (and more effective) two-deep this fall. A pair of transfers – quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. (Oklahoma) and running back Cam Cook (Jacksonville State) – should spark an offense that averaged only 21.8 points a contest in ‘25. Expect newcomers to make a difference along an offensive line that struggled all last season and needs to take a massive step forward. The theme of new faces needing to make an impact continues on defense. Coordinator Zac Alley’s unit gave up 36.2 points in Big 12 play last season and returns zero starters. However, this group got needed help from the portal, including Zeke Durham-Campbell (Coastal Carolina) and Harper Holloman (Western Kentucky) up front, along with linebacker Tyler Stolsky (FAU), and Kamari Wilson (Memphis), Geimere Latimer II (Wisconsin) and Chams Diagne (Georgia State) in the secondary.

The Horned Frogs have won nine games in back-to-back seasons, but coach Sonny Dykes’ squad has a couple of question marks to sort through in order to match that record again in ‘26. The biggest concern is at quarterback following Josh Hoover’s transfer to Indiana. Former Harvard signal-caller Jaden Craig is a promising replacement but will have to prove he can deliver at the power conference level. Also, Dykes has a new play-caller with Gordon Sammis coming from UConn to replace Kendal Briles. The offensive line could be among the best in the Big 12, and Sammis isn’t hurting for playmakers with running back Jeremy Payne and receiver Jordan Dwyer returning. TCU’s defense held Big 12 opponents to 5.4 yards per play last year, but coordinator Andy Avalos won’t have linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr or safety Bud Clark to deploy. However, the front looks stout with Markis Deal, Ansel Din-Mbuh and Zach Chapman returning, and senior safety Jamel Johnson headlines a rebuilt secondary. How well the Horned Frogs reload at linebacker and cornerback will determine just how effective the defense is in ‘26.

The Cowboys are one of college football’s most intriguing teams in ‘26. After a 1-11 finish last season, Oklahoma State has the pieces in place to be one of the most-improved programs. New coach Eric Morris arrived after a successful stint at North Texas and brought a handful of players from Denton to ease the transition. Included in the transfer haul were standout quarterback Drew Mestemaker and dynamic playmakers in running back Caleb Hawkins and receiver Wyatt Young. Morris reeled in over 80 new players to completely reset the roster, including a ton of new faces on defense and along the offensive line. Scoring points with Mestemaker and Hawkins in Morris’ scheme should translate right away. But if Oklahoma State is to make a dark horse run at the Big 12 title game, the progression of the defense is key.

The Sun Devils return only two starters from last year’s 8-5 squad, but coach Kenny Dillingham should reload this roster back into contention for a spot among the top 25 teams in the nation. Kentucky transfer quarterback Cutter Boley has the inside track to replace Sam Leavitt, but freshman Jake Fette could push for the job again in the fall. The winner of the quarterback battle has a standout set of receivers to target, including transfers Reed Harris (Boston College), Omarion Miller (Colorado) and Raiden Vines-Bright (Washington). Despite losing Raleek Brown (Texas) to transfer, the backfield is in strong shape with Kyson Brown and transfer Marquis Gillis (Delaware State) leading the way. A revamped offensive line is Dillingham’s biggest concern entering fall practice. Coordinator Brian Ward returns just two starters off a unit that limited Big 12 teams to 5.2 yards a snap in ‘25. However, the cupboard isn’t bare. C.J. Fite and Clayton Smith are back to lead a solid defensive front, and the linebacker unit is set with transfer Owen Long (Colorado State) joining Martell Hughes and Zyrus Fiaseu. Transfers Lyrik Rawls (Kansas) and Ashton Stamps (LSU) join Adrian Wilson as key cogs in a revamped secondary.

After a 4-8 record in coach Brent Brennan’s debut, the Wildcats displayed marked improvement with a 9-4 finish. Coordinator changes were instrumental to the nine-win season, especially on defense where Danny Gonzales guided that unit to a spot among the best in Big 12 after ranking near the bottom in Brennan’s first year. Gonzales’ ability to build another top-notch group will be tested with the Wildcats replacing several key members from a standout secondary. The good news? The front should be strong with end Tre Smith back from injury, and Chase Kennedy and Taye Brown returning at linebacker. Just four starters are back on offense, but quarterback Noah Fifita is among the top signal-callers in the nation. Senior Kedrick Reescano should keep the ground game performing at a high level, and Fifita has enough returning experience and incoming transfers to have confidence in the receiving corps. A line with three new starters is also in transition. Some regression should be anticipated after a plus-18 turnover margin in ‘25.

Bad luck, close losses and injuries all played a role in a disappointing 2025 season for K-State. Could the new year bring a rebound for this program? New coach Collin Klein certainly has the potential to build one of the Big 12’s top offenses at his alma mater this fall and lead the program back into the top half of the conference. Quarterback Avery Johnson has the dynamic ability to fit Klein’s scheme, with running back Joe Jackson, tight end Garrett Oakley and receivers Jaron Tibbs, Josh Manning and Izaiah Williams providing support. For K-State to contend for a spot in the Big 12 title game, the development of two groups loom large. An offensive line with four new starters must jell before Big 12 play starts in late September. Also, a defense returning just two starters under new coordinator Jordan Peterson is a major question mark. However, the Wildcats catch a break in scheduling. Klein’s team doesn’t have to play Texas Tech, BYU or Utah and hosts key swing games against Arizona, Oklahoma State and Houston.

It’s a new era in Salt Lake City with Morgan Scalley taking over as head coach. However, considering Scalley’s long-time ties to the program, expect much of the same in terms of success. Scalley and former coach Kyle Whittingham consistently assembled some of the nation’s top defenses. Despite just three returning starters, it’s tough to doubt Scalley’s ability to reload here and build another standout group. Linebacker Johnathan Hall, cornerback Elijah Davis and safety Jackson Bennee headline the key returners, but the success of this unit is likely to hinge on how a rebuilt defensive line develops. The question marks at the line of scrimmage continue on offense. The Utes will have five new full-time starters and will miss NFL first-round picks in Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu. The rest of the unit is in great shape, however. The dynamic quarterback duo of Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin returns, and running back Wayshawn Parker is back to power the ground game. Transfers Kyri Shoels (San Jose State) and Braden Pegan (Utah State) add needed playmaking ability to the receiving corps.

Considering coach Willie Fritz’s long track record of success, it was no surprise the Cougars displayed massive improvement in ‘25 after a 4-8 debut under the new staff the previous year. The pieces are in place for Houston to take the next step and contend for a spot in the Big 12 title game. Quarterback Conner Weigman is back to headline an offense with room to improve (5.6 yards per play against conference opponents), and Fritz bolstered the supporting cast from the transfer portal. Running back Makhi Hughes (Oregon), tight end Patrick Overmyer (UTSA) and guard Shadre Hurst (Tulane) were key pickups to give Weigman more help this fall. Receiver Amare Thomas is a preseason All-America candidate after catching 67 passes for 966 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. Six starters are back, but coordinator Austin Armstrong has a few holes to plug on defense. Eddie Walls III (11.5 TFL) and Carlos Allen (7.5 TFL) left big shoes to fill up front. A mid-September showdown against Texas Tech should give Fritz’s team an early idea of how it stacks up in the Big 12.

The Cougars are 23-4 over the last two seasons and have recorded back-to-back top-15 finishes in the final rankings. The next step for coach Kalani Sitake’s team is clear: Earn a trip to the College Football Playoff. With a favorable schedule and 11 returning starters, the 12-team field is within reach this fall. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier is back after a standout freshman season in ‘25. He’s joined by running back LJ Martin and one of the Big 12’s top lines on an offense that averaged 31.4 points a contest last year. The only thing that could slow Bachmeier this fall is a revamped receiving corps. The Cougars allowed only 19.1 points a game in ‘25 and should have one of the conference’s top defenses once again. Coordinator Jay Hill departed to Michigan, but Sitake opted for continuity by promoting Kelly Poppinga to play-caller. With seven starters returning, this unit doesn’t have a ton of glaring questions. Safety Faletau Satuala is one of the Big 12’s top returning defensive backs but is also on the mend after an offseason foot injury. California transfer linebacker Cade Uluave should be one of the Big 12’s top newcomers and joins a strong second level with Siale Esera and Isaiah Glasker returning.

With quarterback Brendan Sorsby awarded an injunction to play in 2026, the Red Raiders are the clear favorite to win the Big 12. Coach Joey McGuire’s team dominated this conference last year by winning nine Big 12 games by 22 or more points. Despite some turnover to navigate on both sides of the ball, don’t expect much to change on the scoreboard. Sorsby adds a boost to the passing attack, adding to an offense that already featured one of the nation’s top backfields with Cameron Dickey, J’Koby Williams and Quinten Joyner. Three starters are back to form a strong foundation up front, and Sorsby won’t lack for weapons in the passing game, including All-America candidate Terrance Carter returning at tight end. McGuire’s program also made massive strides on defense last year, limiting opponents to 11.8 points a game – down from 34.8 the previous season. Edge rusher David Bailey, tackle Lee Hunter and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez left big shoes to fill, but help is coming via the portal in the form of linemen Trey White (San Diego State), Adam Trick (Miami, Ohio) and Mateen Ibirogba (Wake Forest) and linebacker Austin Romaine (Kansas State). Coordinator Shiel Wood returns a strong foundation with five starters back, including tackle A.J. Holmes, linebacker Ben Roberts, and cornerback Brice Pollock. If Sorsby delivers on his potential, the Red Raiders could be poised for a deep run in the playoff.

Texas Tech over BYU

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jun 15, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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Big 12 Football 2026 Predictions

Texas Tech over BYU

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