What the Oregon Ducks need for their perfect College Football Playoff scenario to unfold

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There's a common notion in college football that, so long as you win every game on your schedule and take care of business, everything else will sort itself out as far as the postseason goes. You'll be rewarded with the best opportunity to win the national championship.

We saw a year ago how that wasn't the case for the Oregon Ducks, though.

Despite going a perfect 13-0 with a Big Ten Championship crown in their first year as league members, Oregon got the short end of the stick thanks to an ill-advised College Football Playoff seeding model that ended up hurting conference champions and rewarded one or two-loss teams with easier routes in the bracket. While that seeding has since been updated — no longer do conference champions automatically get first-round byes — it's still fair to ask the question: Where is the ideal place to be in the CFP bracket when all is said and done?

The Pros and Cons of a Conference Title Game

It's not hard to argue that a place in the top four seeds is ideal, since it would result in a first-round bye in the playoffs, giving you an easier path to the final. However, that extra bye also comes with a longer layoff, allowing time for rust to build potentially. Oregon fans experienced the downside of this last season, going from December 7 to January 1 without a game — a total of 25 days.

You also have to consider that to secure a top-four seed and a first-round bye, you most likely need to win a conference championship, which means playing an extra regular-season game on conference championship weekend, while other teams are at home. The honor of playing for a conference championship is undoubtedly great, but there are some downsides to it, which is why there has been growing support for these title games to be eliminated.

Is the First-Round Bye That Beneficial?

One thing to consider when looking at that first-round bye is the layoff, as many Oregon fans will tell you. Let's examine the schedule this year for a team that doesn't compete for a conference title and receives a first-round playoff game, versus a team that plays for a title game and earns a first-round bye.

No Conference Title Game Schedule– Final Regular Season Game: Saturday, November 29- First-Round Playoff Game: December 19 or December 20- Time Off: 20 or 21 days

Conference Title Win Schedule– Conference Title Game: December 5 or December 6- Quarterfinal Playoff Game: December 31 or January 1- Time Off: 25 or 26 days

If the objective of the bye is to get more time to recover, then you could argue that missing out on a conference title game and playing in the first round is just as beneficial, with the added bonus of getting a first-round game — potentially against a lesser opponent — to get back into rhythm after a three-week break and start your championship run. We saw this happen with Ohio State last year, cleaning up against a Tennessee team in the first round before destroying a rusty Oregon team in the Rose Bowl.

What is the Ideal College Football Playoff Seed?

So long as the playoff schedule stays how it is, and we keep first-round games from taking place until the middle of December, then it's not hard to argue that the ideal place to be in the CFP seeding is around No. 5 or No. 6. In this instance, you aren't winning a conference championship. Still, I think many teams would sacrifice that if it meant a more ideal path to the national championship.

Let's say that the Oregon Ducks get the No. 5 seed this year. That means they would get the three weeks from November 29 to December 19 or 20 off, allowing them time to rest up and prepare. It would also give them a home playoff game at Autzen Stadium against the No. 12 seed, likely the Tulane Green Wave or Memphis Tigers, whoever ends up being the highest-ranked Group of Six conference champion.

Should they win that game, the Ducks would turn around and play the No. 4 seed, potentially the loser of the Big Ten Championship Game or the SEC Championship Game. Maybe it's Indiana, or perhaps it's Texas A&M? Either way, Oregon fans likely prefer that matchup over someone like Ohio State or Georgia.

Given that path, it is safe to say that the Ducks should hope for a No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the playoffs going forward.

How Does Oregon Get to the No. 5 Seed?

Okay, so if No. 5 is the goal, then how does Oregon get there? The answer is by winning out, and potentially with a little bit of help.

With a game against the No. 16 USC Trojans this week, and a regular-season finale against the Washington Huskies, Oregon is undoubtedly in the playoff should it pick up two wins. In this week's CFP rankings, you can expect Alabama to drop behind them after a loss to Oklahoma, moving Oregon up to No. 6.

If they're going to jump another spot, they most likely need Georgia to lose to Georgia Tech or Texas A&M to lose to Texas. Even without those things happening, they probably stick at No. 6 and are in a pretty good spot.

It all starts this weekend, though, against the Trojans. If the Ducks can't win the remaining games on their schedule, all of this will be for naught.

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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Breaking down Oregon Ducks' ideal College Football Playoff scenario

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