OTB Staff Picks: Rutgers vs Illinois

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Rutgers will be on the road again this week, as they are set to take on Illinois on Saturday at Noon. As with every Rutgers football game, the staff here at OnTheBanks will try to guess the score and provide context as to why they think that way.

Andrew Rice

Rutgers should be looking at this matchup as a redemption game from last season. Illinois is coming off two straight losses and will be fighting hard to get back into the win column. There are a lot of narratives that go into a game like this. However, narratives do not decide outcomes.

The biggest question here is, can Rutgers’ defense show more improvement than last week and effectively slow down Illinois’ offense? Rutgers can score, and will score, but Illinois’ offense poses a much bigger problem for our defense. They have consistency in the passing game, and they have a stable of running backs to use in the ground game. We all know the defensive struggles Rutgers has had all year. Illinois will exploit these weaknesses to stay one step ahead of Rutgers. The Knights’ offense will put up points and keep it close, but the Illini offense will be too much to keep up with. In addition, Rutgers’ red zone struggles will force them to settle for field goals, which could be another deciding factor in this game.

Illinois 35, Rutgers 27

Gregory Hanchuk

I really believe that this game will be a great duel of two efficient quarterbacks who know how to sling the pigskin through the air in Athan Kaliakmanis for Rutgers and Luke Altmyer for Illinois. The game will be shown to a national TV audience on NBC at noon. The last time Rutgers went to Illinois & won was in 2021, and the score was 20-14. So if the team can keep it close throughout, there might be a chance. The typical warning sign on this team is that the defense won’t hold its side of the bargain. Illinois is on a 2-game losing streak, so they will be motivated enough to bounce back in a big way at Gies Memorial Stadium after getting thumped by Ohio State and Washington.

The most interesting factor of this game will be how long the offense will be able to keep pace with a high-powered Illinois offense. The game film that they watched in the Hale Center most certainly showed that the Illinois quarterback is mobile and can pass the ball while scrambling out of the pocket and also dodging tacklers. Schiano and his staff have to hope their team can compete in the second half, which has been the main problem recently against the upper echelon of teams that they played in Oregon and Washington, where it started good and then sputtered like a car with little gas left in the tank. The head coach continues to say in his game week press conferences that he doesn’t want to acknowledge who makes the decisions on defense, and whether or not it’s a collective effort or one person calling the plays is yet to be seen. There has to be a plan that works for the defense that has suffered a lot of setbacks injury-wise to keep the team within striking distance in the 4th quarter on Saturday. Obviously, the old saying goes that whoever turns the ball over first most likely will lose the game. I picked against Rutgers last week, and they won, so that will continue this week in hopes that they will win again, despite what I believe will happen, shown in the score in bold below. In all honesty, I hope my pick is wrong and doesn’t come to fruition, and that the team chops for 4 quarters, but ultimately they fall short in the end.

Illinois 37 – Rutgers 30

Arnav Sarkar

Rutgers is coming off a win, while the Illini are coming off two straight losses. But that doesn’t tell the full story, as the Scarlet Knights needed every bit of 60 minutes and some luck to take down Big Ten bottom-feeders Purdue, who will likely go winless in the Big Ten despite showing improvements from a horrendous 2024.

Meanwhile, Illinois is having similar problems on defense, allowing 34 to a high-powered Ohio State team and then 42 on the road at Washington. However, the Illini tend to play much better at home than on the road, with a competitive home loss against the #1 Buckeyes and a ranked victory over USC in Champaign compared to a 63-10 humiliation at Indiana and a 42-25 loss in Seattle to the Huskies.

That spells trouble for the Scarlet Knights, who fell to Illinois 38-31 in a heartbreaker last year at SHI Stadium. Although Illinois has not lived up to its playoff expectations, it has a chance to capitalize on a softer November schedule, which also includes Maryland, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. The Knights may cover the double-digit spread, but even with an Illinois defense that is also struggling, there are no indications that Rutgers will fare any better on that side of the ball after the worst coverage breakdowns of the season to allow easy Purdue scores.

The Rutgers offense found life against the Boilermakers, with KJ Duff having a career day coupled with strong efforts from Raymond and Benjamin, and against an Illini defense that looks like it’s getting worse by the week, they should be able to score. However, Illinois’ defensive playmakers get to Kaliakmanis in crucial spots while their own offense cruises through most of the game, resulting in a bounce-back, home-cooking win for the Illini.

Illinois 38, Rutgers 28

John Catapano

I would be shocked if Schiano didn’t have this game circled on his calendar in the preseason. We all remember the timeout heard around college football, as Schiano outwitted himself by icing a kicker who was already iced, only to have Illinois head coach Bret Bielema send their offense back out on the field and complete a wild game-winning touchdown to Pat Bryant, thanking Schiano post-game for allowing him to see his kicker had no chance in the wind.

Illinois was a popular dark-horse contender preseason for the College Football Playoff, which ended last Saturday in a blowout in Seattle against Washington. After a 63-10 loss to Indiana earlier in the season, the Illini came back the following week to defeat a ranked USC team at home, handled Purdue in a high-scoring affair, and then played Ohio State tough, falling 34-16.

Illini QB Altmeyer is passing for 260 yards per game and should have no trouble eclipsing that mark tomorrow against a Rutgers secondary that was so out of position at times last week versus Purdue, that it was comical. On the defensive side of the ball, the Illini are giving up 247 yards passing per game, including over 300 against the Boilermakers’ Ryan Browne, that same Browne who passed for 117 yards against a woeful Rutgers secondary.

For Rutgers, QB Athan Kaliakmanis is averaging 286 passing yards per game. Star receiver KJ Duff caught six passes for 240 yards last week versus Purdue, such a startling stat that the Big Ten Conference office thought it was a misprint, and KJ was snubbed from weekly offensive honors. Stud receiver Ian Strong was out last week, despite warming up pregame, so it would be shocking if he weren’t on the field Saturday. Expect Rutgers to pass early and often, and if they can keep up with the Fighting Bielemas, they will ride Antwan Raymond and Ja’Shon Benjamin in the second half and pull off a stunner. Rutgers has yet to play a complete game this season. Why not Saturday?

Rutgers 41 Illinois 38

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