Exploring Julian Sayin’s floor and ceiling for the 2026 season

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From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about our Biggest Concerns. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our Floor vs. Ceiling articles here.

Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is entering his second season as the Buckeyes’ starter. The redshirt sophomore from Carlsbad, California, had quite a first season, winning Big Ten awards, finishing as a Heisman Trophy finalist, and leading Ohio State to a win over Michigan and an appearance in both the Big Ten title game and the College Football Playoff.

The season didn’t end the way the Alabama transfer may have hoped, but that’s due in large part to the large men in front of Sayin failing to protect him in the final two games the way they had all througout 2025 up to that point.

Among his accolades from his first season as a collegiate starter were Big Ten Freshman of the Year, a Second-team All-Big Ten nod, and the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year Award. Sayin flirted with the all-time, single-season record for completion percentage, finishing at 77%.

He threw for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns with just eight interceptions on the year.

Sayin seems a good bet to progress in his second season, but what would constitute a best-case (and worst-case) scenario for the young quarterback in 2026? Let’s look at his floor and ceiling.

Sayin’s 2026 Floor

Sayin’s floor may have more to do with the people around him than his own ability, experience, or development.

He’ll no longer have Carnell Tate’s considerable skills and experience, though there’s no lack of talent in the receivers’ room. Additionally, he won’t have standout pass-catching tight end Max Klare.

Despite having plenty of talent at both positions, Sayin will need to build the same kind of chemistry with their replacements that he had with Tate and Klare.

There is also a new offensive coordinator running things after Brian Hartline’s departure to South Florida. Arthur Smith is expected to put more emphasis on the running game and short passing game, including use of the team’s tight ends.

This is a Ryan Day-led team, so there will still be plenty of shots taken down the field (it would be coaching malpractice not to take shots with Jeremiah Smith on the roster). But adjustments to Smith’s style early in the season, and a renewed commitment to running the football, may impact Sayin’s numbers in 2026.

I don’t expect Brandon Inniss to drop off much from what he does on offense, and he could take a step forward from the 36 catches, 271 yards, and three touchdowns he tallied in 2025. Tate’s vacancy, however, may be taken by tight ends part of the time and a new starter at times.

Who that will be is yet to be determined, although freshman Chris Henry Jr. is making a strong case to step into Tate’s role. Klare and Will Kaczmarek depart, meaning new tight ends will be catching passes as well.

Then there’s the offensive line. One might expect it to be better in 2026 than it was in 2025, but until we see the revamped line in front of Sayin perform, it’s difficult to know if protection will improve in the coming season. It was mostly fine throughout 2025, but it got exposed big time in the final two games against Indiana and Miami last season.

Those were great teams, with excellent pass rushes, but there were few signs of the complete capitulation we saw from the front five down the stretch in the prior 12 games. The offensive line must be better for Sayin to take the team further and for the second-year starter to put up better numbers.

Finally, there’s the schedule, which will be tougher in 2026 than it was last year. Ohio State has to travel to Texas, Iowa, Indiana, and USC, and will host Oregon and an improving Illinois team. That tougher schedule dovetails with the rebuild offensive line. The new line will have to play better than the 2025 unit just to avoid a drop-off, because the competition level will be higher.

All that said, I don’t expect Sayin’s floor to be that low.

I expect we’ll likely see at least 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns again. I’ll put the floor for those stats at maybe 2,900 yards and 27 touchdowns, but I could also see an increase in interceptions to 10, if there’s any chemistry issues through conference play, because tipped balls typically get caught by the other team.

I’ll put his floor at 75% for completion percentage. His accuracy is still outstanding, so he’s likely to keep slinging it and moving the football.

Sayin’s 2026 Ceiling

Despite all of the above looking like a lot is going against Sayin, he’ll have an excellent opportunity to raise his ceiling in 2026.

Another year in the weight room, the opportunity to make some plays with his legs and sew some doubt among opposing defenses, and a potentially better offensive line are all in his favor. The kid just made a run to a Heisman ceremony appearance before making a dozen college starts. There’s a wealth of talent inside that slender frame.

Jeremiah Smith’s return for what is almost certainly his final college season means Sayin has a world-class top target who will be open even if he isn’t technically open. Smith can get up over defenders, make sick one-handed catches, and still get his toe down in bounds through contact like few in the game — college or pro — can. Just having a receiver like that is worth well over a thousand yards and a dozen touchdowns all by itself.

But Arthur Smith and Day asking Sayin to be a threat with his legs at times may buy the quarterback an extra second per play frequently, which will help him find guys down the field. It also may pump him up and give him a little extra freedom to play more loosely.

Having backs and tight ends who are integral to the offensive scheme will provide higher-percentage attempts as well. And then there’s the aforementioned Henry, who may prove to be a lethal weapon in the red zone.

I’d put Sayin’s 2026 ceiling at 80% completion percentage, 4,100 yards, and 42 touchdowns.

I also think he can cut his interceptions down to five or six in Year 2. And although I didn’t give him a floor for leading the team, this is a quarterback who could lead the Buckeyes to a Big Ten championship and a national title if the Buckeyes can get better pass blocking, a similar year-long defensive performance, and no drop-off from the skill positions on offense.

What do you think? Where do you see Sayin’s floor and ceiling in the upcoming season? Let us know in the comments section below.

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