Houston Football Preview 2026: The Cougars Are Good Enough to Win the Big 12
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Houston always felt like a Big 12 program, but it's only been in the league for the last three seasons.
Former head coach Dana Holgorsen had the foresight to try gearing up for life in the bigger conference – coming from the American Conference – but it didn't work early on.
The Cougars went 4-8 in his first year, Willie Fritz came in and went 4-8 in 2024, and then it all started to turn last season.
Houston Is Ready to Compete for a Big 12 Title
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Fritz needed a year to get Central Missouri going, and then he won big. He needed a year at Sam Houston, and then he played in two straight FCS National Championships.
After being great in two years at Georgia Southern, he needed six years at Tulane, and then went 23-4.
The 10-3 Houston season was what the program is supposed to do. This year, Fritz's team has the experience, talent, depth, and expectations to realistically be in the Big 12 title hunt.
This year's team is good enough to be at least as good as last year's version. And Houston is good enough to earn back-to-back double-digit win seasons for the first time in the program's history.
– 2026 Houston Schedule Analysis
Houston Quick Hits
- Head Coach: Willie Fritz (3rd year at Houston: 14-11; 30th year overall: 222-127)
- Best Case / Worst Case: Be in the Big 12 Championship chase late/Struggle to get bowl eligible
- Key Player: Makhi Hughes, RB Sr.
- 2025 Record: 10-3
- Biggest Question: Can the combination of experience and top transfers really put Houston in the Big 12 title hunt?
Houston Key 2025 Stats
- 3rd Quarter Scoring: Houston 92, Opponents 26
- Time of Possession: Houston 32:18, Opponents 27:42
- Fumbles: Opponents 22 (lost 6), Houston 15 (lost 4)
Offense
There were a few blown tires along the journey, but the offense was strong throughout last season.
It put up 30 or more points eight times, was great at controlling the clock, and had a way of coming up big in several key moments.
But it can do more, and it will.
Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle welcomes back a loaded group of skill starters to go along with a line full of excellent transfers.
What’s Working
Conner Weigman is still around. He would've been a later-round draft pick had he left early, and he would've been one of the top quarterbacks in the transfer portal if he was looking to leave.
He's back after throwing for over 2,700 yards with 25 touchdowns and just nine picks, and he ran for 700 yards and 11 touchdowns.
True freshman Keisean Henderson is a big-time prospect to work into the mix for the near future.
The receiving corps is loaded. Leading receiver Tanner Koziol will be a key tight end for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but UTSA transfer Patrick Overmyer is a veteran target with 58 catches over the last two seasons.
Amare Thomas led the team with 966 yards and 12 scores, Oregon State transfer Trent Walker is coming off a 67-catch season, and Koby Young should have more of a role on the outside.
A former Tulane star is joining the former Tulane head coach. Fritz gets a Green Wave star with the signing of Makhi Hughes, a tough back who got in a little work last year at Oregon, but ran for close to 2,800 yards with 22 touchdowns, and caught 30 passes, in two years with the Green Wave.
DJ Butler is back after finishing last season as the team's No. 2 running back, and Re'Shaun Sanford II is a talented back who's coming off a knee injury.
What Needs Work
The offensive line has to come together fast. Alvin Ebosele is a veteran left tackle who started every game last year, and guard McKenzie Agnello is the lone holdover for the interior from last year, and he was a backup. Everyone else is a transfer.
Toledo's Anthony Boswell was a tremendous center get, and Shadre Hurst from Tulane is slightly undersized, but ready right away at left guard.
Drew Terrill from Maryland has to lock down the right tackle job to make all the pieces fit.
Keep completing passes. The Cougars lost a wild shootout against West Virginia, but the passing game was just fine.
The other two losses came to TCU and Texas Tech, and those were the two times Weigman and the passing attack failed to hit the 52% completion rate. This goes along with …
Third down conversions. Basically, keep the chains moving. The Cougars were solid at converting their third down chances, but they hit just one of 12 tries in the loss to Texas Tech and four of 17 in the loss to TCU.
Player to Watch
Amare Thomas, WR Sr.
Terrific in his first two seasons at UAB, he was exactly what the Cougars needed as a big play target in the slot.
He has good 6-0, 205-pound size, is tough with the ball in his hands, and he can take over games, with three touchdowns against West Virginia, two against Arizona, and two more in the bowl win over LSU.
Defense
Six key starters are back, five other spots are filled in by high-end transfers, and there are fixable things to make this year's defense far stronger.
The Cougar D wasn't a rock, but it held serve more often than not.
It took massive offensive performances by Texas Tech and West Virginia to push past Houston, and this year it'll be even tougher to light up defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong's bunch.
What’s Working
The safeties should be tremendous. Safeties Kentrell Webb and Jordan Allen are veterans who can hit. Webb was third on the team with 71 tackles, Allen will have a bigger role after a 48-tackle season, and Tulane's Javion White is coming off a 50-tackle campaign.
The defensive line loaded up. Edge rusher Brandon Mack is back after a five-sack season, defensive tackle Khalil Laufau is back on the inside, and here comes the talent.
Ashton Porter was a great pass rushing signing from Oregon, Ejiro Egodogbare is a big get for the inside from Yale, and De'Marion Thomas is a strong backup tackle from Oklahoma State.
The linebacking corps is outstanding. Sione Fotu is back in the middle. He's not huge, but the 225-pound veteran is reliable.
Jaden Yates made 120 tackles at Marshall a few years ago, and made 55 stops last season at Ole Miss. 240-pound Carmycah Glass brings more size inside.
What Needs Work
The corners could use more depth. Jalen Mayo was a wonderful signing from Stephen F. Austin, and Will James is coming off a 38-tackle season with a team-high three picks and eight broken up passes. Those two are tremendous, but that's about it for the experience.
Where's the sure-thing pass rush? Houston was just okay at getting behind the line, and that was with leading pass rusher Eddie Walls. The defense came up with just three sacks over the final four games of the regular season.
The run defense has to hold up. The Cougars allowed over 200 rushing yards twice – the losses against Texas Tech and West Virginia. The third-worst day was against Oregon State, and that took a massive late comeback to pull it off in overtime.
Player to Watch
Jalen Mayo, CB Sr.
It wasn't a big national signing, but landing the 6-1, 184-pound corner from Stephen F. Austin was huge for the Cougars.
Physical enough to make 48 tackles last season, he also came up with four sacks and nine broken up passes.
Keys to the Season
- Use all the experience on both sides of the ball to do even more.
- Get the transfers for the defensive line to crank up the pass rush right away.
- Better coverage teams and a more explosive return game.
Player Who Needs To Shine
Evan Noel, PK RFr.
Former Cougar kicker Ethan Sanchez hit 21-of-26 field goals, including 10-of-14 from beyond 40 yards.
He helped save the day against Oregon State, hit three field goals in the 30-27 win over UCF, nailed five field goals against Colorado, four against Oklahoma State, and … missed two in the 17-14 loss to TCU.
Noel is an untested kicker transferring in from Florida. Two years ago, he was among top kicking prospects in America. This year, he should be the difference – one way or another in at least three games.
Biggest Concern
Again, get more of a pass rush
More sacks would be nice, more pressures are needed, and the line has to generate more big plays. Generating more tackles for loss is vital.
The 2022 Houston team lived in opposing backfields with 94 tackles for loss. The defense hasn't broken the 70 mark in any of the last three seasons, and came up with a mere 4.7 per game last year.
Biggest Game
at Kansas State, October 10
The Big 12 opener at Texas Tech is huge, the road game at Utah is big, and there are five conference road games in all.
If Houston has any designs on playing for the Big 12 title, it has to win two of the three against the Red Raiders, Utes, and Kansas State. This will likely be the easiest of the three.
Transfer Portal
Houston handled the portal like it's ready to do some damage.
Not only do the Cougars bring back a ton of talent, but they also added a slew of interesting transfers to boost the depth and patch a few holes.
They sprayed to all fields, but most of the help was for the lines and the secondary.
Best Signing
Makhi Hughes, RB (Oregon)
The offense will revolve around quarterback Conner Weigman, but Hughes should be a difference-maker for the running game to take the heat off of everyone else. There will be a rotation, but the coaching staff will get Hughes the ball in his hands in several ways.
Biggest Loss
Corey Platt Jr., LB (Texas Tech)
A good part of the linebacking corps rotation, he made 40 tackles and three sacks for the Cougars after three years at Tulane. Now the fifth-year veteran will be a factor in the Texas Tech linebacking corps.
Other Names to Know
- Ashton Porter, DT (Oregon)
- Trent Walker, WR (Oregon State)
- Jalen Mayo, CB (Stephen F. Austin)
CFN Season Prediction
After a 9-3 season, Houston should be in for more of the same as long as it can win the games it's supposed to.
Overall, it should be a better team, the offense is more talented, the defense is full of veterans, and it should be right up there with Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah among the true favorites to win the Big 12 title.
But there's a big problem.
CFN Prediction: 9-3
At Texas Tech, at Utah, at Kansas State. Throw in late back-to-back road games at Colorado and West Virginia – all part of a run of six away dates in nine games – and it's a stress-test of a slate.
Missing Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, and TCU – along with Iowa State and Kansas – is a huge help, and there's reason to be bullish on the upside, but there's no margin for error.
Related: Big 12 Football Win Totals 2026: Spring Predictions for All 16 Teams
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