Predicting future SEC, Big Ten, other conferences realignment

Predicting future SEC, Big Ten, other conferences realignment

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Predicting future SEC, Big Ten, other conferences realignment
NEW ORLEANS, LA – JANUARY 01: SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey looks on prior to the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl game between the Ole Miss Rebels and the Georgia Bulldogs on January 01, 2026, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Let’s predict the future.

It’s a future that will undoubtedly surprise us when future moves are announced, but, inevitably, more conference realignment will be on the horizon later this decade and, more likely, through the early part of the next decade, too. That’s when television contract deadlines will begin expiring, and with them, as new agreements arrive in their place, allegiances amongst existing conference members—the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, Pac-12, AAC, Sun Belt, Mountain West, MAC, and Conference USA­—will evaporate as well.

And, just think, how much of tomorrow’s tumultuous college football realignment landscape will be traced back to Texas football and Oklahoma’s decisions to join the SEC as a package deal that became official back in August 2024? By that logic, how much further should the buck travel before it stops with someone else, like Texas A&M, which, alongside fellow former Big 12 member Missouri, joined the conference in 2012?

We have a few predictions.

  • The SEC remains at 16 schools through at least 2030.
  • The Big Ten also sticks with its current 18 members through 2030.
  • The ACC’s Florida State, Clemson, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia emerge as the most vulnerable to being wooed away from the league the teams share now. However, the conference’s television deal isn’t scheduled to conclude until 2035-2036. But by the end of the decade, as the Big Ten’s deal wraps up in 2029-2030, expect each program to have already long ago run the numbers of what it would cost to bolt to the now-nationwide Big Ten, completing its reportedly desired east wing.
  • If the Big Ten declines the ACC migrants’ entrance, the Big 12 likely scoops them up when its television deal expires the following college sports calendar, 2030-2031.
  • The ACC gets the Pac-12 treatment: most of its core members depart the league.
  • By 2032, the ACC is a ragtag conference made up of its leftovers and a host of Group of Five programs—think Memphis, South Florida, and other decent media markets.
  • The Mountain West conference is likely back to 10 to 12 members by 2033.
  • Conference USA deepens its brand as an FCS stepping-stone.
  • Notre Dame is forced to choose a conference in 2035.
  • At least one Group of Five conference becomes defunct due to member churn.

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