Corrected: What UVA football needs to reach ACC Championship

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Corrected: What UVA football needs to reach ACC Championship

Correction: A previous version of this article incorrectly outlined the three-way tiebreak scenarios between the trios of Virginia, SMU, Pitt and Virginia, SMU, Georgia Tech. The analysis and scenarios have been correctly updated to reflect the current and potential tiebreak scenarios. Streaking the Lawn apologizes for any confusion caused.

For the first time since Virginia’s 2019 ACC Coastal title run, the Cavaliers enter late November with a legitimate chance to return to Charlotte. Following Saturday’s emphatic win over Duke, UVA sits at 6–1 in the conference, tied with Georgia Tech atop the ACC standings and firmly in the postseason conversation.

But, unlike previous division-era title races, this year’s ACC has no Atlantic/Coastal alignment, and the evenly matched top tier has produced a tiebreak maze involving Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU, Pitt, Miami, and (mathematically) Duke.

And here’s the important part for Virginia fans:

Even if Virginia beats Virginia Tech and finishes 7-1, the Cavaliers are NOT guaranteed a spot in the ACC Championship Game.

Because UVA hasn’t played Georgia Tech, Pitt, or SMU, a three-team tie at 7-1 triggers deeper tiebreak layers to determine who will play for the ACC Championship game.

So the stakes are high, and complicated.

The ACC three-way tiebreak format works like this:

1. Head-to-head record/standings

  • Still relevant if one of the three teams is either 2-0 or 0-2 against other tied teams no matter if all three teams played. That 2-0 or 0-2 team would advance/be eliminated accordingly.

2. Win percentage against common opponents

  • Followed by win percentage against common opponents based on said opponents’ order of finish.

3. Strength of conference opponents (SOS, or combined win percentage of conference opponents)

The full tie-breaking scenarios are here. The above list is a simplified version.

Scenario 1: Best path – UVA beats Tech and there is not a three-way tie

If Virginia defeats Virginia Tech and finishes 7–1, the ‘Hoos remain a strong contender, but they could still use help avoiding a three-team tie with a combination of Georgia Tech, Pitt, and SMU.

Realistically, to have the simplest path to the title game, UVA could use an SMU loss. That would mean only the winner of the Georgia Tech vs. Pitt game and the Cavaliers (if they beat the Hokies) would be 7-1.

Scenario 2: A three-way 7–1 tie

A three-way tie makes UVA’s ACC Championship game case more uncertain.

There are two potential three-way tie combinations, based on the result of the game between Pitt and Georgia Tech. The simplest path for the ‘Hoos to make the ACC Championship in a three-way tie is for Pitt to beat Georgia Tech and tie with UVA and SMU.

• UVA 7–1, Pitt 7–1, SMU 7–1

  • In a comparison between UVA, Pitt, and SMU, the record vs. common opponents would send Virginia and SMU to the ACC Championship.
  • All three teams either have played or will play Stanford and Louisville.
    • Virginia is 2-0
    • Pitt is 1-1 (beat Stanford, lost to Louisville)
    • SMU is 1-0, having beaten Stanford. If this scenario occurs with all teams at 7-1, that means SMU would’ve beaten Louisville in Week 13.

The other three-way tie scenario is more complicated.

• UVA 7–1, Georgia Tech 7–1, SMU 7–1

  • In this scenario all three teams have one common opponent in Wake Forest
    • Georgia Tech beat Wake Forest
    • UVA lost to Wake Forest
    • SMU lost to Wake Forest
  • Because record versus common opponents (Wake Forest) comes before strength of schedule, that means that Georgia Tech moves on to the ACC Championship and it becomes a direct head-to-head comparison between UVA and SMU.
  • As of right now, UVA would get in over SMU in this scenario thanks their better conference SOS
    • The Cavaliers’ conference SOS (their conference opponents’ total combined ACC record) is 23-29, or 44.2% following Week 12. SMU’s is 22-33, or 40%.
    • That’s a meaningful advantage for the Cavaliers that can only be completely overturned by NC State winning out (vs. FSU and UNC), Miami winning out (vs. Virginia Tech and Pitt), and Wake Forest beating Duke. If UVA and SMU ended up tied in SOS, then the tiebreak would come down to, according to the ACC, “the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportsSource Analytics.”

Scenario 3: UVA loses to Virginia Tech

If UVA loses in two weeks’ time and finishes 6–2 in the ACC , the Cavaliers aren’t mathematically eliminated — but their route becomes extremely difficult.

Virginia would need:

• Georgia Tech to beat Pitt

• Pitt to loses to both GT and Miami

• SMU to loses to both Louisville or Cal

• Miami to lose to VT and then beat Pitt (would help avoid tiebreakers – Miami currently has the same SOS as Virginia at 23-29)

• A multi-team tie where head-to-head wins (over Duke and Louisville) still carry weight

There are mathematically valid, but highly specific paths. They rely on multiple dominoes falling.

In other words:

At 6–2, UVA’s chances of playing in Charlotte drop from “possible” to “long-shot chaos.”

Who should UVA fans root for?

In addition to the breakdown of the potential SMU-UVA tiebreaker in the three-way tie with Georgia Tech that is explained above, here’s the rooting guide Virginia fans need the next two weeks:

UVA vs Virginia Tech, 11/29

✔️ UVA

Winning is necessary — losing makes the path difficult.

Louisville vs SMU, 11/22

✔️ Louisville

Life gets a lot simpler if SMU loses a game and cannot cause any three-way 7-1 ties.

Cal vs SMU, 11/29

✔️ Cal

Second chance to knock SMU out of 7-1 contention. Same stakes as above.

Pitt vs Georgia Tech, 11/22

✔️ Pitt

Either losing will help, Pitt winning is slightly better. Either way this game keeps one team from reaching 7-1.

Miami vs Pitt, 11/29

✔️ Miami

Prevents Pitt from reaching 7–1. Could be irrelevant if SMU loses first.

Final word

Virginia isn’t fully in the driver’s seat, but the Cavaliers are in the front row.

A win over Virginia Tech positions the Cavaliers to capitalize if just one other contender stumbles. The margins are thin, the scenarios are messy, and scoreboard-watching suddenly matters again in Charlottesville.

For a program that hasn’t been in this conversation since 2019, that alone is a meaningful November.

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