PAC Is Back: Which Teams Will Be Bowl-Bound in the Conference’s Return?
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57 days til college football kicks off, and even longer until bowl season, but who says we can’t take a sneak peek?
In what should be a bizarre math equation of a year for bowls, here is the preseason look at the PAC-12 odds, team by team:
Boise State
O/U: 7.5 Wins
+155 To Win PAC-12,
+450 To Make CFP
Dan’s Ceiling: CFP Birth
It’ll help out the PAC’s bowl overload if the Broncos can find their way back to the postseason for the second time in CFP history.
After a big-time overhaul in a jump from 2024 to 2025 that included Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, it felt like the Broncos had lost a lot of their identity.
That was evident in their season opener in South Florida, where BSU was throttled by USF 34-7.
A lot of people wrote off the blue turf bandits right then and there, but a 6-2 conference finish with wins over UNLV and New Mexico got the Broncos back on course.
Boise went on to run away with their final Mountain West title game appearance, taking down the Rebels 38-21.
Now in 2026, it seems to be once again between the Broncos and Rebs for that 12th and final spot in the playoff picture, according to most publications.
While UNLV is intriguing back in the MW, Boise State’s new digs give them a greater opportunity at putting together a stronger resume.
This includes their “flex” game, set at Utah State for the final game of the year, which could change as the PAC looks to help its case in getting a team into the dance by any means necessary.
20 Broncos landed on the PAC-12 preseason all-conference list, as Maddux Madsen looks to lead the herd in his fifth season and third year as a starter, looking to rebound after a sluggish 2025 with reinforcements inbound.
Adding all of this up, it is Boise State’s conference (and potential playoff bid) to lose in 2026.
San Diego State
O/U: 6.5 Wins
+360 To Win PAC-12
+1500 To Make CFP
Dan’s Ceiling: Bowl Appearance
It is hard not to mention the progress Sean Lewis and Co. have made heading into this new PAC era.
After a 3-9 debut in 2024, San Diego State finished 9-4 and was on the cusp of a title game appearance before a finale loss in Albuquerque to the Lobos.
But like any successful season, an exodus is soon to follow.
Along with losing a plethora of starters, Defensive Coordinator Rob Aurich is now with the Cornhuskers in Lincoln, leaving a lot of question marks on that side of the ball.
Still, the Aztecs retained a lot of firepower, such as running back Lucky Sutton, a Doak Walker Award semifinalist in 2025.
It may be deja vu for SDSU, as I think they will be in the hunt once again for a title shot, and even perhaps finally make their first championship game appearance since 2021.
Texas State
O/U: 6.5 Wins
+550 To Win PAC-12
+2100 To Make CFP
Dan’s Ceiling: Bowl Appearance
I don’t think the Bobcats will be world beaters in year one of the PAC; this unit should be able to scrap together at least six wins in their introduction to their new rivals.
Their offense was a force to be reckoned with in 2025, but a lackluster effort on defense kept the San Marcos squad out of a lot of games, needing to pull off a three-game win streak to end the season to get to 7-5 and bowl eligibility.
Now in 2026, it’ll be a pack of new faces along with a new coordinator, Will Windham from South Alabama, to try and stop the scoreboard bleeding.
I can see this squad hovering around a 6-6, 7-5 finish.
Fresno State
O/U: 7.5 Wins
+800 To Win PAC-12
+5000 To Make CFP
Dan’s Ceiling: Bowl Appearance
Matt Entz didn’t skip a beat for the Bulldogs in 2025, finishing 9-4 in his first season at the helm.
Unlike some other programs, this hot debut didn’t result in a roster gutting, but rather, a reload.
With a bulk of starters returning, along with their coordinators, the Bulldogs could be on the verge of taking off, as Khristian Martin becomes the eye candy.
Martin, the Maryland transfer, is expected to win the starting quarterback job and could bring a dual-threat element to Fresno’s offense. Something we did not see with E.J Warner, but it could fit this offense very well.
I would pin Fresno at around 7-8 wins, while also claiming the tag of “dark horse” to make a run at the conference title.
Utah State
O/U: 4.5 Wins
+1100 To Win PAC-12
+10000 To Make CFP
Dan’s Ceiling: Miss Bowl
I am not sure how many had Bronco Mendenhall’s first year with the Aggies ending in a bowl appearance, but I don’t think I will be saying the same for 2026.
While McCae Hillstead brings promise to the quarterback position and to the offense overall, some losses at the skill positions and offensive line spots have me wary of what to think for production.
Defense was an Achilles’ heel in 2025 for USU, and while some transfer help is on the way, will it be enough to help a unit that finished eighth in the Mountain West for yards per play?
I think the Aggies will be competitive, and I do believe they will cross that 4.5-win threshold, but I don’t see them doing much more than that.
The Runt(s) Of The Litter
Colorado State: Under 3.5 Wins, Miss Bowl
Oregon State: Over 3.5 Wins, Miss Bowl
Washington State: Under 4.5 Wins, Miss Bowl
(My apologies to the Pacific Northwest and Fort Collins.)
What’s your new PAC-12 outlook? Comment down below what teams you are looking forward to watching this coming fall.
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