College Football 2026: 12-team playoff predictions leading to Indiana-Notre Dame national championship

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College Football 2026: 12-team playoff predictions leading to Indiana-Notre Dame national championship originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The College Football Playoff brings a few more tweaks to the 12-team model this season. 

Four Power 4 conference champions (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) will get automatic bids. The highest-ranked Group of 6 school gets an automatic berth, too, and Notre Dame will be included in the field if the Irish finish in the top 12 in the rankings.  

Straight seeding is still the format, and the top-four schools in the rankings get byes. The SEC and Big Ten have dominated the field the last two years, and that should be the case again in 2026. We have four Big Ten teams and four SEC teams in our College Football Playoff predictions for 2026-27. We also believe Notre Dame will return to the field after being snubbed last season. Who else will return to the CFP in 2026-27?

Is the 12-team College Football Playoff field too predictable? We hit on five of the 12 teams last season, and we have four of those teams in the CFP this season. 

The College Football Playoff begins with first-round playoff games on Dec. 18-19. The quarterfinals start at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30 before a Jan. 1 triple-header with the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. 

The semifinals will be played at the Capital One Orange Bowl and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Jan. 14-15. The College Football Playoff championship game is on Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. 

With that in mind, here are our predictions for the third 12-team College Football Playoff.

MORE: What teams would benefit most from 24-team playoff

College Football Playoff first-round predictions  

A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2026-27 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus: 

First round (Dec. 18): No. 10 USC at No. 7 Miami 

This assumes USC negotiates a tough schedule to make its first CFP appearance under Lincoln Riley. It also presumes Miami – which made the CFP championship as an at-large last season – wins the ACC as an automatic qualifier this time around. These schools haven't played since 1968 – which makes this a fun first-round matchup in primetime. 

First round (Dec. 19): No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas 

Who knew Boise State would be the team to get the Pac-12 back into the College Football Playoff? Spencer Danielson led the Broncos to Mountain West Conference championships in each of the last three seasons. This also would mark Arch Manning's College Football Playoff debut as a starter for a Texas team flush with first-round talent this year. 

First round (Dec. 19): No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Ole Miss 

The Sooners have a first-round matchup against a league foe for the second straight season – this time on the road. The Rebels do play at Oklahoma on Nov. 14 – but that happens in this format. The quarterback matchup between John Mateer and Trinidad Chambliss is appealing. They combined for 75 pass attempts in a 34-26 shootout last season. 

First round (Dec. 21): No. 11 BYU at No. 6 Oregon 

Oregon draws the late game for the second straight season in a matchup against Big 12 champion BYU – our pick to win the conference and break through under coach Kalani Sitake. The Ducks beat the Cougars 41-20 in their last matchup at Autzen Stadium in 2022. Dan Lanning will have a chance to push Oregon to the quarterfinals for the third straight year since moving to the Big Ten. 

MORE: Ranking all 138 college football coaches ahead of 2026 season

College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions  

A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2026-27 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites: 

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 30): No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas 

This would be the fourth matchup in the last three years between the schools. The Buckeyes and Longhorns meet on Sept. 12 in the back half of a home-and-home series. Ohio State has won three of five meetings between the schools all time – and three of those games were decided by seven points or less. 

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (Jan. 1): No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Oregon 

Lanning and Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman are the top two coaches who have yet to win a national championship in our 1-138 Coach Rankings. This would make for an outstanding Cotton Bowl matchup – especially with quarterbacks CJ Carr and Dante Moore. The Irish and Ducks also return several key players on defenses that ranked 11th and 12th, respectively, in scoring defense last season. 

Rose Bowl Game (Jan. 1): No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 8 Ole Miss 

The Hoosiers return to the Rose Bowl under Curt Cignetti, and this would be the first time Ole Miss gets to play in the "The Granddaddy of Them All." We're presuming Cignetti makes it work with TCU transfer Josh Hoover and a roster that blends portal pickups and experience from last season's national championship team. Could Chambliss lead an upset here and push the Rebels to the semifinals for the second straight season? 

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 1): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 USC 

The Bulldogs are 0-2 in the quarterfinal round in the 12-team format – a stat that Kirby Smart will be looking to rectify in a close-to-home game at the Peach Bowl. USC would be making a second straight trip to the East Coast. Would that travel be a factor in this matchup? These schools have played three times – all in Los Angeles in 1931, 1933 and 1960. 

MORE QB RANKINGS: SEC | Big Ten| Big 12| ACC| Top 25 overall

College Football Playoff semifinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2026-27 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites: 

Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 14): No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Texas 

Could Texas take out Ohio State and Indiana in back-to-back weeks? That would be a coup for Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, who would have the Longhorns in the CFP semifinals for the third time in four years. This is a huge year for Texas. 

Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 15): No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Notre Dame 

Notre Dame beat Georgia 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2, 2025 in a game where Gunner Stockton was the pinch-hit starter for the Bulldogs. Stockton would get a chance to avenge that loss against the Irish in the third Sugar Bowl matchup between the schools. 

College Football Playoff championship pick

A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2026-27 season. That game is scheduled for Jan. 25 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

CFP national championship (Jan. 20): No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Notre Dame 

Imagine the hysteria in the state of Indiana leading up to this CFP championship matchup; especially with the Irish going for their first national championship since 1988. Notre Dame won the last playoff meeting 27-17 on Dec. 20, 2024. Would the Hoosiers win the fourth consecutive national championships for the Big Ten?

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