Florida Football Preview 2026: Can Jon Sumrall Fix the Gators Fast?

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With four losing seasons in five years, this is the worst run of Florida football since the 1940s.

And now it's up to new head coach Jon Sumrall to change that around.

The 2020 Florida Gators started 8-1, lost a thriller to LSU, and then dropped an all-timer of a 52-46 SEC Championship to eventual national champion Alabama.

Starting with that LSU game, Florida has gone 29-37, rolled through four coaches – two full-time, two interim – and hasn't been a factor in the SEC in five years.

Florida Needs To Win Right Away Under Jon Sumrall

But here's the thing about Florida in the Billy Napier era – the program always seemed like it was a tweak away from getting its groove back.

There was always a win or two here (like the win over Texas last season) and a great performance there (like the heartstopping loss to Georgia) that showed just how promising the Gators could be.

And then … nope.

Not to go all folksy, but sometimes that dog just won't hunt. Napier just couldn't make it work.

At the time in 2022, Napier seemed like a fantastic hire, just like getting Sumrall appears to be a right-coach-right-time signing.

Fine, so Florida somehow didn't get Lane Kiffin, but all Sumrall did in two years at Troy and two more at Tulane was win three conference titles, get his team into another, and put last year's Green Wave squad into the College Football Playoff.

Just make Florida a national championship-level superpower again, Coach. No pressure.

– 2026 Florida Schedule Analysis

Florida Quick Hits

• Head Coach: Jon Sumrall (1st year; 4th year overall, 20-8)
• Best Case / Worst Case: Be a factor in the SEC race/A fifth losing season in the last six
• Key Player: Tramell Jones Jr., QB RFr. or Aaron Philo, QB Soph.
• 2025 Record: 4-8
• Biggest Question: Can the new coaching staff get the offense moving?

Florida Key 2025 Stats

• Third Down Conversions: Opponents 75-of-169 (44.4%), Florida 52-of-152 (34.2%) 
• Red Zone Scores: Florida 18-of-22 (91%), Opponents 33-of-44 (75%)
• Punt Returns: Florida 13.15 yards per return, Opponents 7 yards per return 

Offense

From the first moment he took over the job, Sumrall made a big deal out of Florida being better on offense.

That might take a little bit, but the attack should be better under former Georgia Tech offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, whose teams relied a bit more on bashing with the ground game than going all fun 'n' gun. 

But there is one thing Faulkner's offenses did do …

What’s Working

Keeping the chains moving. It helped that Georgia Tech had a baller of a quarterback in Haynes King who sold out time and again to get first downs.

Florida was awful on third downs, converting just 34% of the time and managing a mere 227 first downs. The Yellow Jackets under Faulkner last year were 23rd in the nation on third-down conversions (46%) and came up with 305 first downs.

The receiving corps just got way better. Vernell Brown is back after leading the team with 40 catches, but he didn't come up with any scores.

Dallas Wilson is a 6-3, 218-pound deep threat on the outside. But here comes the game-changer.

Eric Singleton Jr. is right up there with the top wide receiver transfers in the draft, coming up with over 2,000 yards of catches over his two seasons at Georgia Tech and then last year at Auburn.

There's a lot to like at running back. Jadan Baugh led the team with 1,170 yards and eight scores, averaging over five yards per carry, and Evan Pryor is a good veteran transfer from Cincinnati who ran for 940 yards and nine scores over the last two seasons.

What Needs Work

Will the quarterback be better than DJ Lagway? The former Gator starter threw 14 interceptions and was wildly inconsistent, but talent-wise, he's got the NFL tools. Now he's at Baylor.

Georgia Tech transfer Aaron Philo doesn't have a ton of experience, but he's a good all-around option who knows Faulkner's system. Last year's Gator backup Tramell Jones, though, is right there in the mix

Scoring. Much more on this in a moment, but Sumrall's Tulane teams scored 31 points or more 15 times in two seasons, and 13 times in his two seasons at Troy. 

Last year, Florida scored 31 points or more in the opener against LIU from the FCS (55-0) and in the season finale against Florida State (40-21).

The offensive tackles. The front five wasn't necessarily the problem. It wasn't bad in pass protection and keeping defenses out of the backfield, 

The interior is solid with Knijeah Harris back along with transfers Harrison Moore (Georgia Tech) a lock at center, and TJ Shanahan (Penn State) at guard, but the tackle gigs are up in the air going into fall camp.

Gator veteran Caden Jones will likely take one spot, and it's Game On for the other.

Player to Watch

Jadan Baugh, RB Jr.
He might not be a national star quite yet, but he's one of the SEC's best returning backs.

Not only did he run for over 1,800 yards in his first two seasons, but he averaged well over five yards per carry. Last season, he grew into more of a receiver with 33 grabs and two scores.

Defense

Former Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White makes the move over to Florida. He's got plenty of returning veterans to work with for a Gator defense that allowed 377 yards and 24 points per game.

It was good overall, but it didn't hold up all that well in key moments. With the parts returning, this is more about tweaking than overhauling.

What’s Working

The linebackers are in place. The staff didn't do much of anything through the portal to help out the position, with leading tackler Myles Graham back after making 76 tackles.

The combination of Aaron Chiles on the outside and Jaden Robinson in the middle combined for 100 tackles.

The Gators have the SEC size on the inside. The tackles aren't totally set, but no matter who's starting, there's bulk.

Joseph Mbatchou has 6-5, 323 pounds on the nose, and 6-4, 312-pound Brendan Batt is coming off a 39-tackle season at the other tackle spot.

Jeramiah McCloud is pushing 300, Baylor transfer DJ Kalu is 308, and the ends aren't normal – Emmanuel Oybadejo is 6-6, 303 pounds.

Red zone defense. For most teams with new head coaches, whatever happened the year before doesn't matter with all the new players coming in. But for this one, there's enough in place to hope for a repeat.

Last year's bunch held up well inside the 20, keeping teams off the board an impressive 11 out of 44 times in the red zone. That played a big part in the 23-21 win over Mississippi State.

What Needs Work

The Gators lost a slew of strong defensive backs. Bryce Thornton is back after making 56 tackles with six broken up passes, but the losses hurt.

Not having safeties Jordan Castell (Kentucky), Aaron Gates (Kentucky), and Sharif Denson (Ole Miss), along with corners Teddy Foster (USF) and Jamroc Grimsley (Mississippi State), is a hit.

The linebacker depth is razor thin. The starting threesome of Robinson inside and Chiles and Graham outside is great, but the backups are all underclassmen.

They're good prospects – freshman Malik Morris will be a thing over the next few years – but there's no real experience.

Where's the pass rush? There might be good veterans across the board, but who's the killer when it comes to getting into the backfield?

Kamran Jones and Jayden Woods tied for the team lead with 3.5 sacks each, but Sumrall's defenses are used to generating big-time pressure from the outside.

Player to Watch

Myles Graham, LB Jr.
Able to play inside or out, the 6-1, 225-pound Graham can do a little of everything.

He made 106 stops with three sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss in his first two seasons, and he turned into a better playmaker in pass coverage.

Keys to the Season

• Keep the chains moving – more third-down conversions, more first downs
• The experience on defense has to come through right away
• Create more explosive plays

Player Who Needs To Shine

Tramell Jones, QB RFr.
Or Aaron Philo, the transfer from Georgia Tech. They're both not that big, but they can move, and they can sling it around.

No matter who's under center, there will be a learning curve. Jones was a great get for the Gators last season, and he got a little time, but he needs a big fall camp to hold off Philo. 

Biggest Concern

Scoring
It was the strangest aspect of the Billy Napier era. Florida did a lot of things right, but it kept losing because it was almost as if it forgot to score.

Nine times last season the Gators failed to score more than 24 points – and they went 1-8 in those games.

Over the last four years, Florida went 1-20 when it didn't score at least 24, and the one win came in a 23-21 win last season over Mississippi State. That was Napier's final game as the head coach.

Biggest Game

Ole Miss, September 26
All things considered, the Florida SEC schedule isn't all that horrible to start. With a brutal middle of the campaign – at Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma – the Gators need to rock right away.

They start at Auburn and then host Ole Miss. It's the first big home game in the Sumrall era – Florida Atlantic and Campbell are first – and this has to be an early statement moment.

Transfer Portal

The only way to put it is … ehhhhhhhhh.

Sumrall was able to keep around enough good veterans to not need a whole slew of transfers – at least on defense – but when it comes to high-end players, the Gators lost more than they got.

The offensive line got the most help – the staff did a great job here – but if this is a breakthrough season for the program, it won't be because of the portal.

Best Signing

Eric Singleton Jr., WR (Auburn)
The 5-10 veteran might not be big, but he can move, and he can make lots of plays. He'll be a true No. 1 in the attack.

Steady from the start three years ago at Georgia Tech, he made 48 grabs as a freshman, 56 as a sophomore, and was a short-range target last year with Auburn, making 58 catches.

Biggest Loss

Jordan Castell, S (Kentucky)
Quarterback DJ Lagway will be missed if the new quarterbacks aren't ready for primetime, but either Tramell Jones or Aaron Philo will be fine.

The safeties are also good, but Castell was a reliable factor, averaging just over 56 tackles in each of his first three seasons.

Other Names to Know

• Luke Harpring, TE (Georgia Tech)
• Emmanuel Oyebadejo, DE (Jacksonville State)
• Patrick Durkin, PK (Tulane)

CFN Season Prediction

No one in the tough, nasty world of the SEC cares about your tough schedule – everyone thinks their team has a brutal slate.

However, Florida played Miami, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas – four College Football Playoff teams, and it kept the Longhorns from getting in.

That's not supposed to matter, though. Florida is supposed to be good enough to beat anyone and everyone, but it obviously wasn't its powerhouse self, and it couldn't create or get any semblance of a break.

This season, though, it might just get a little bit of an opening.

CFN Prediction: 7-5

Start with this. No Alabama, LSU (which should be an instant monster under Kiffin), Tennessee, or Texas A&M.

The schedule is hardly a breeze, and it's uh-oh time for that midseason stretch against Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma, but Sumrall has enough in place to push for a winning season.

It starts with wins over Florida Atlantic and Campbell, and then there have to be a few wins out of Vanderbilt, South Carolina, at Auburn, at Florida State, and at Kentucky.

Assume an upset or two somewhere, and there's a winning season and a big step back to where Florida needs to be.

Related: Florida Football 2026 Schedule: Full Breakdown and Season Outlook

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