College football analyst predicts Oklahoma to regress in 2026

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The Oklahoma Sooners returned to the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2019 during a breakthrough 2025 season. While many viewed the season as a major success, some skeptics questioned whether Oklahoma could sustain that level of success.

The Sooners excelled in close games, finishing 4-1 in one-score matchups. That was a major improvement in an area where Brent Venables had previously struggled during his tenure. Entering last year, Venables had posted a 4-8 record in one-score games.

However, Oklahoma's offense remained one of the biggest concerns in college football last season. The Sooners ranked No. 92 nationally in total offense and No. 113 in rushing offense. Those numbers made Oklahoma the lowest-ranked offense among College Football Playoff teams and the second-worst rushing attack in the field.

Because of those offensive concerns, ESPN's Brandon Gall, who filled in for Paul Finebaum on "The Paul Finebaum Show," believes Oklahoma could take a step back and miss the playoff this season.

"I don't know about Oklahoma," Gall said. "John Mateer, coming back. All kinds of reasons to think they're good, but based on the metrics, that was not a great playoff team last year… I would say Ole Miss, Oklahoma, and Alabama step back."

Oklahoma has plenty of reasons for optimism heading into the 2026 season, especially with a healthy John Mateer and a stronger group of returning players. However, the Sooners also have to prove that last season was more than just the result of being "Hard to Kill."

If the offense takes a significant step forward and the team continues playing elite defense, Oklahoma can silence the doubters. But if those offensive issues remain, the concerns about regression could become a reality.

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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: College football analyst predicts Oklahoma to regress in 2026

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