Where Arizona football ranks in ESPN’s FPI for 2026 season

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A year ago Arizona football exceeded preseason projections by going 9-3 and making the Holiday Bowl. While expectations are higher entering the 2026 season, Arizona is flying under the radar in its quest for higher goals like qualifying for the Big 12 title game and putting itself in position to play in the College Football Playoff.

ESPN’s College Football Power Index ranks Arizona as the No. 34 team in the country, with a projected record of 7.3 – 4.8. For reference, last year FPI projected Arizona to go 4.9 – 7.1 in the regular season and it won nine games.

Arizona has an 80.1% chance of winning six or more games but only a 4.2% chance to win the Big 12, according to FPI. ESPN gives Arizona a slightly better chance at making the CFP at 7.8%.

FPI ranks Arizona fourth in the Big 12 behind No. 10 Texas Tech, No. 20 BYU and No. 31 Utah, all of whom are on the Wildcats’ schedule. On the other hand, Arizona gets to face the two Big 12 teams with the worst FPI ranking in No. 66 West Virginia and No. 72 Iowa State.

Overall, Arizona’s strength of schedule ranks 53rd, which is middle of the pack in the conference. ASU has the toughest schedule (30th), while Texas Tech has the easiest (71st).

FPI was introduced in 2013 as a way to project many points above or below average a team is, and its projected results. Projections are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

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