Game-By-Game Win Probability Released by ESPN's FPI for Oklahoma Football

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The FPI isn't high on Oklahoma football, especially when it comes to the biggest matchups of the season for the Sooners. Oklahoma is projected to lose at Michigan, at Georgia, Texas (in Dallas) and home to Texas A&M. I disagree with the projection of the Sooners finishing 8-4 after an incredible 10-2 season in 2025. 

Here's a list of each game with Oklahoma's probability according to the FPI and my brief reaction to each matchup. 

UTEP- 99%. This one is a no-brainer in Norman. UTEP is still finding its identity with third-year head coach Scotty Walden and the Miners will be entering their first season in the new-look Mountain West Conference. 

At Michigan- 47.8%. This is a fair projection. It's a matchup that could go either way with a new head coach. However, Kyle Whittingham brings veteran experience to the table after coaching the Utah Utes from 2005-2025. I think Oklahoma still wins this game, but it will be a one-possession game with a better-looking Wolverine team. As long as Oklahoma can stop Bryce Underwood's passing game like last year's matchup, the Sooners should have no problems in Ann Arbor.

New Mexico- 94.9%. I agree with this for the most part although the Lobos had a solid turnaround season in 2025. They went from 5-7 the year prior to 9-4 in 2025. New Mexico also comes from the Mountain West and nearly made the conference championship game last season (missed it due to a tie breaker). Oklahoma wins this game, but it will be much closer than fans think. 

At Georgia- 23%. This one is also fair. The Bulldogs have owned the SEC in the 2020s so far. Since 2014, only one team other than Alabama or Georgia who has won the SEC championship: LSU in 2019. Many also projected Oklahoma would lose at Alabama last season as well. I wouldn't completely count out the Sooners on this game. In the SEC, anything can happen. But this is a Georgia program that's hungry for more than another SEC title. 

Texas (in Dallas)- 24.4%. This is way too low of a percentage. In the Red River Rivalry, it doesn't matter where both teams are ranked or how well the season has started. Last year was a prime example of that. The Longhorns had already lost two games prior to the Red River Rivalry in 2025. The Sooners were 5-0 and No. 6 in the AP poll heading into this matchup. Despite Mateer's injury, it seemed like Oklahoma had a lot of momentum. However, the Texas defense had other plans in the 23-6 upset win over the Sooners. This is a game that's mostly difficult to predict on any given season. Remember the overtime win for Oklahoma in 1996? The Sooners were 0-4 and the Longhorns were ranked No. 25 going into that one. 

Kentucky- 86.3%. I agree with this one. This is only the fourth meeting between these two programs and the first one since 1982 where Oklahoma won in Lexington 29-8. The Wildcats enter into 2026 with a new-look coaching staff after the long tenure of Mark Stoops. Will Stein takes over Kentucky after being the offensive coordinator for Oregon. While I expect the Wildcat offense to be better than last season, the Sooner defense will be too much. 

At Mississippi State- 80.2%. This is also about right. The Bulldogs improved from 2024, but still have a long ways to go with Jeff Lebby. While Mississippi State did go from 2-10 in 2024 to 5-8 (lost in the Duke's Mayo Bowl) in 2025, only one of those games was a conference win. This might end up being more than 80.2% if the Bulldogs have a slow start in SEC play.

South Carolina- 75.1%. When you have two of the most energetic coaches in all of the SEC face off on Halloween, you know it's going to be a fun one. I can agree with 75.1%. While the Gamecocks did have a disappointing outcome in the 2025 season, Shane Beamer's squads have been known to stay in key games where no one thought it would be close. The 31-30 loss at No. 3 Texas A&M last year defines that. In 2024, the Gamecocks were three points away from potentially being in the College Football Playoff. Don't sleep on South Carolina, but I think the Sooners have no problem at home. 

At Florida- 54.6%. This one is spot on. It's a new-look Florida team. But like we've seen in past Gator seasons, no one knows which Florida team will show up. In 2025, the Gators went from upsetting Texas to getting blown out by a mediocre Kentucky team 38-7. Can first-year head coach Jon Sumrall fix that issue for Florida this season? We'll have to find out. This is my potential trap game, but I'm still confident in the Sooners. 

Ole Miss- 62.3%. I also have no problem with this one. It's going to be difficult for the Rebels to win in Norman for the second straight season. Even with Chambliss and Lacy coming back on the Ole Miss offense, this team will be hard to predict since Lane Kiffin's departure. How will the backfield duo mesh with Pete Golding and the rest of the coaching staff? If the Rebels start off hot again, expect this probability to be closer to 50-50. 

Texas A&M- 49.9%. I disagree. While the Aggies were one of the most improved teams in 2025, they had an easy schedule. Out of the top half of the SEC, the Aggies faced only two teams: Texas and Missouri. Because of that, this could be a way overhyped Texas A&M football team. Plus, the Aggies are coming to Norman on Senior Day. That will be a brutal atmosphere for them. Oklahoma wins big in this one.

At Missouri- 60.3%. I can get on board with 60.3%. Oklahoma should win this game, but the Sooners have lost their last two trips to Columbia. This is another road game you don't want to sleep on, especially if you're on your way to the playoffs. It will be a hostile environment in Columbia during Rivalry Week, but should be a fun one on Thanksgiving weekend. 

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