College football betting, picks, odds: Early best bets for Week 13's biggest games, including USC-Oregon

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

We got a little loose by betting seven (!) games in the “Big Game” realm last week, but we lived to tell about it, following up our 4-0 Week 11 with a 5-2 showing in Week 12.

Beyond the heightened stakes everywhere from the SEC to the Mountain West, part of the reason we went with a septet of matchups last week was that we knew that “Tin Horn” week was coming in college football, where many of the big brands tune up for their rivalry game in the regular-season finale by scheduling a cupcake this Saturday. All of which causes a dearth in headliner matchups this week.

[Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more]

The jostling in the SEC resulted in a mild shake up and a couple big moves in the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night. The Committee didn’t take kindly to Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma, dropping them a whopping seven spots in the rankings. While they could be leaving room for Bama to hop back up one or two places with a win in the Iron Bowl, it feels like they’re sending a message to the other top teams that, if they suffer even an excusable loss, they might still plummet.

Barring a massive surprise either on the field or a change of heart in the boardroom, Notre Dame moved its way into a secure spot in the College Football Playoff by passing its final legitimate test of the season at Pittsburgh with flying colors, sneaking ahead of the Crimson Tide. Pat Narduzzi was right to downplay his team’s chances, as Pitt has fallen out of the top 25, but the Panthers are right back on our list of the biggest games below, because the ACC is still thoroughly up for grabs. So much so, that it’s caused confusion in the projected CFP bracket with Miami representing the ACC despite having little hope for actually doing so.

The combination of ACC-favorite Georgia Tech almost losing to Boston College, and Duke no-show-ing a crucial home game with Virginia, kept things slightly on the rails. The Cavaliers were able to play QB Chandler Morris — the likely missing piece from their loss to Wake Forest a week earlier — to keep their conference hopes alive, not that the championship picture is any clearer this week.

Never has the term “outlasted” been more appropriate than for what San Diego State was able to do in their game with Boise State last Saturday — winning 17-7 with 17 net passing yards. Now the Aztecs are better than even money to win the Mountain West. Meanwhile, the CUSA is a three-horse race after Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw State as home underdogs of a field goal.

We almost had a considerable shake-up in the SEC, as South Carolina took a 30-3 halftime lead over Texas A&M and the Aggies’ precarious position atop the SEC appeared to be toppling. Texas A&M stormed back to win, though, sending a message that it will take more than a bad half to stun Mike Elko’s group, despite it being one of the worst frames of football any team has played all season. Strangely, Marcel Reed’s 439-yard passing day to bring the Aggies back, didn’t result in a massive shake up in the Heisman odds.

The American Conference is two-for-two in getting one of their teams ranked by the College Football Playoff committee and seeing them immediately get upset. Navy ruined South Florida’s season — one that started so impressively with wins over Boise State and Florida. Tulane is next into that honorary spot, with a road game at Temple ahead.

Surprisingly, the Group of Five team replacing USF (by way of Memphis a week before) in the CFP rankings was not James Madison. The Sun Belt got a lot simpler on Saturday when Georgia Southern knocked off Coastal Carolina, securing the East division for the Dukes and their spot in the conference title game — where JMU will be a heavy favorite.

Betting the big games for Week 13

Hawai’i at UNLV (-3, 64.5)

Since before its Week 0 matchup with Stanford that saw the favorite flip from open to close, Hawai’i’s rating in the betting market hasn’t been aligned with many of its point spreads, so we shouldn’t be surprised that the Rainbow Warriors have snuck into Mountain West contention with little fanfare, as one of five teams that is 4-2 in the league.

UNLV was one of the top four choices on the oddsboard before the season, but along with Boise State, Fresno State and San Jose State, its market rating has taken a hit. Even with that drop, I have the Rebels projected at -6 for this game, which would require an upgrade for Hawai’i. While it’s been a successful season on the Big Island, this is almost entirely an adjustment because of a home win over San Diego State.

Going on the road against a polar-opposite team to the Aztecs — one that’s scored at least 29 points in every game they’ve played — is a comparable matchup to when the Warriors went to San Jose State and lost in a 45-38 shootout.

Pick: UNLV -3

No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon (-9.5, 59.5)

We saw it a few times early in the season, but rarely do we get the game where the teams could switch spots in the CFP Rankings this late in the season. With close losses at Illinois and Notre Dame, taking down Oregon on the road and sending the Ducks to the two-loss tier, could put USC firmly in playoff contention — and one Ohio State loss at Michigan (huge-eyes emoji) away from making the Big Ten title game.

[Check out all of Yahoo's sports betting content here in our new betting hub]

To their credit, the Trojans passed a pair of tricky tests against Iowa and Nebraska, two teams with a defensive success rate in the same neighborhood as Oregon, and for the season, USC has been slightly better at limiting explosiveness than the Ducks.

Offensively, Oregon’s the most explosive team in the Big Ten, with USC second. Making the big play is likely what this game comes down to, as the Trojans lost in South Bend when they botched a trick play that took the ball out of star quarterback Jayden Maiava’s hands. Playing a simpler game should keep USC close with the Ducks, whose resume is made up of three big games — an overtime win at Penn State that’s getting worse by the week, a home loss to Indiana and an escape from Iowa City two weeks ago.

Pick: USC +9.5

Pittsburgh at No. 16 Georgia Tech (-2.5, 61.5)

A fascinating matchup goes down in Atlanta, as Pitt comes in licking its wounds from getting rolled by Notre Dame. Don’t let Narduzzi fool you, the Panthers didn’t want to get embarrassed in a high-profile game, even if it didn’t hurt their playoff chances. Meanwhile, it took a loss at NC State and near-defeat at Boston College last week for the market to hammer Georgia Tech’s rating in the market.

A week ago, this line would have been at least a touchdown, so backing the Yellow Jackets is valuable based on prior market opinion. This line implies that Pitt is the better team on a neutral field, but even after those two tough road games for Georgia Tech, the Panthers haven’t done enough in the last three weeks to prove that.

Maybe Brent Key is only able to wake the Yellow Jackets up for the important games, but coming back home for one that’s pivotal to their ACC title and CFP chances certainly qualifies. Even without having the knowledge of the market value on Georgia Tech here, I’d still prefer to put my betting success in the hands of QB Haynes King at a point spread of less than a field goal.

Pick: Georgia Tech -2.5

No. 11 BYU (-2.5, 54.5) at Cincinnati

Let’s track the betting market over the course of the season for this matchup:

  • Preseason projection: Pick-em

  • Shared opponents:

    • Iowa State (both BYU and Cincinnati covered):

      • BYU was +2.5 at Iowa State (suggesting BYU was a point better on a neutral field)

      • Cincinnati was -1 at home to Iowa State (suggesting Iowa State was two points better on a neutral field)

        • A three-point difference (between BYU and Cincinnati)

    • Utah:

      • BYU was +3.5 at home to Utah (suggesting Utah was seven points better)

      • Cincinnati was -9.5 at Utah (suggesting Utah was six points better)

        • A one-point difference

    • Arizona:

      • BYU was -1.5 at Arizona (suggesting they were about five points better)

      • Cincinnati was -5.5 at home to the Wildcats (suggesting they were about two points better)

        • A three-point difference

BYU being a 2.5-point favorite on the road implies the Cougars are roughly six points better (with 3.5 for the Bearcats’ home-field advantage) on a neutral field. Strictly speaking from a market perspective, at no point this season has that been the case, and it requires a massive downgrade to Cincinnati after losing to Arizona (a team that led BYU by 10 in the fourth quarter) to make BYU the favorite here.

Pick: Cincinnati +2.5 

You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos