Oklahoma Football's 2026 Season Outlook: Projected Win Probabilities For Every Game

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ESPN released its matchup predictor for every regular-season game, and it gives Oklahoma fans a pretty honest look at what to expect in 2026.

The Sooners are favored in eight of their 12 games, which projects to an 8-4 record. That feels about right given the gauntlet they face, but anything short of 10 wins and another playoff appearance would feel like a step backward after last year.

Here’s how the predictor breaks down each game with my thoughts:

UTEP (99.0% favorite)

This one is a no-brainer. UTEP went 2-10 last year and is one of the worst teams in the country. OU hasn’t always looked sharp in openers. They weren't very impressive in their 35-3 win over Illinois State out of the FCS, in last season's debut.  However, they should handle this one easily at home.

Michigan (47.8% favorite)

A true toss-up on the road. The Sooners handled Michigan pretty well last year with a 24-13 win in Norman. I’m not fully buying into Bryce Underwood just yet. Defense travels, and we saw that last year when OU went undefeated on the road. Kyle Whittingham is an outstanding head coach, but he's walking into a bit of a mess to clean up. I think the predictor has this one wrong — give me the Sooners.

New Mexico (94.9% favorite)

New Mexico had a solid 9-4 season under Jason Eck and tied for first in the Mountain West. They even hung tough with Michigan. Still, at home in Norman, Oklahoma should take care of business.

Georgia (23.0% favorite)

This is the toughest game on the schedule, and it’s on the road in Athens. Gunner Stockton is back and one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Ellis Robinson IV leads a strong secondary. Former Sooner Gentry Williams is now with the Bulldogs too. OU has their work cut out for them here.

Texas (24.4% favorite)

Red River is always a war. Texas should be more explosive with Arch Manning back and the addition of Cam Coleman. But Parker Livingstone will have a chip on his shoulder facing his old team. This one is going to be close, but the Sooners need to find a way to win at two of three games between Michigan, Georgia, and Texas, while the ESPN matchup predictor has them as underdogs in all three contests.

Kentucky (86.3% favorite)

New head coach Will Stein is rebuilding after a 5-7 season. Former Longhorn CJ Baxter is their main offensive weapon, but he’s had trouble staying healthy. At home, OU should handle this one.

Mississippi State (80.2% favorite)

Trap game in Starkville with the cowbells. They took Texas and Tennessee to overtime last year. Jeff Lebby has the offense moving, and new QB Kamario Taylor has some serious athleticism, drawing comparisons to Robert Griffin III. Still, the Sooners should be favored here.

South Carolina (75.1% favorite)

LaNorris Sellers is back, but it’s a make-or-break year for Shane Beamer. Sellers lit it up in Norman a couple years ago, but if OU plays to its potential, they should win this one at home.

Florida (54.6% favorite)

First meeting as SEC members in the Swamp. Some people think Jon Sumrall has them as a sleeper. Jadan Baugh is a solid back, and Hayden Hansen returns to Gainesville. If the defense stops the run like they did effectively throughout last year, OU should be fine.

Ole Miss (62.3% favorite)

Trinidad Chambliss is back and earned preseason All-SEC honors. No Lane Kiffin or Charlie Weis Jr. could expose some issues, but they still have talent like Kewan Lacy. This is OU’s best chance yet to beat the Rebels since joining the conference.

Texas A&M (49.9% favorite)

True toss-up. First meeting as SEC members. Mike Elko had an 11-2 season last year. Marcel Reed has flashed but needs consistency. This one could go either way.

Missouri (60.3% favorite)

Old Big Eight rivalry with stakes. The teams split their first two SEC meetings. OU won last year 17-6. All-American running back Ahmad Hardy returns, however he's recovering from a gunshot wound to his leg back in May. Austin Simmons comes over from Ole Miss, after losing the starting quarterback job to Trinidad Chambliss during the middle of last year. A playoff spot or SEC title game could be on the line here.

Overall, ESPN has the Sooners favored in eight games. That 8-4 projection feels fair with one of the toughest schedules in the country. But with the talent on this roster — healthy Mateer, strong skill positions, and a nasty defense — Oklahoma has the pieces to exceed that. They just have to go win the close ones against the top teams.

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