Florida State football roundtable: Seven big questions heading into the 2026 season

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Florida State football is upon us.

FSU heads into 2026 with plenty looming over the program after two straight losing seasons from the Seminoles. Ashton Daniels arrives as the latest attempt to solve the quarterback position, five new starters have to come together on the offensive line, the defense is banking on a young group taking a Year 2 leap and hanging over all of it is a coaching staff that most everyone outside the building believes is operating without a safety net.

FanDuel currently has Florida State’s over/under set at 5.5 (betting $10 for over would earn you $6.58, under would be $12.40), having dropped from 6.5 in March. For perspective, last season’s over-under was 7.5.

In ESPN’s preseason FPI rankings, the Seminoles were placed at No. 28, ranking their strength of schedule at No. 22. FPI projects FSU’s record as 6.7-5.4, giving it a 71% chance at finishing over 6 wins, a 3.2% chance to win the ACC and a 9.2% chance to make the playoffs.

With fall camp beginning and the countdown to kickoff against New Mexico State a month away, we wanted to dive into seven big questions heading into the season.

Win shares

• NoleThruandThru: 5.66
• Jordan Silversmith: 5.93
• Perry Kostidakis: 5.83
• Curt Weiler: 5.81
• Frank: 7.46
• Matt Minnick: 5.58

Reader average: 6.76

No. 1: What will be the strongest side of the ball for FSU in 2026?

• Jordan Silversmith: Like I wrote last week, I think the defense could actually be an interesting unit in the second year of the 3-3-5, and should be the stronger side of the ball. The Noles have talent at all three levels with the Desir twins up front, a quartet of experienced linebackers, and a healthy Ja’Bril Rawls on the back end. There are still massive question marks, mostly revolving around depth and where the explosive plays will come from, but I feel better about them than the offense. As far as position groups go, it is almost impossible to tell because of the number of question marks in each group. I think the skill position players could be interesting, led by Duce Robinson, Ousmane Kromah, and Tre Wisner, but I do not trust the offensive line, quarterback, or play-calling to take advantage. If I had to pick one position group, I would say the linebackers. Chris Jones was one of the better transfer pickups. Omar Graham Jr. and Blake Nichelson are in the same system for a second year. Plus, I think Ernie Sims could make a real difference.
• Curt: This is tough because I think the position group I’m highest on could be the wide receivers and I really like FSU’s running back room. But I’m low enough on the quarterback situation that I’m going with the defense. Color me at least mildly a believer in there being a second-year improvement under defensive coordinator Tony White. The Seminoles were able to retain Ja’Bril Rawls and the Desir twins, and added some intriguing transfer pieces at each level of the defense. If this team improves in 2026, I believe it’ll be because the defense takes a notable step forward.
• NoleThruandThru: Strongest side of the ball will be the offense this year. The talent at the skill positions should bail Ashton Daniels out enough to be respectable, particularly Duce Robinson’s ability to make contested catches, and I have decent faith in the offensive line to coalesce and turn in some solid performances. Strongest position group this season is easily running back.
• Matt M: Can special teams count as a “side of the ball”? As good as the receivers seem, I have zero faith in a Mike Norvell offense consistently scoring, which ultimately the point of playing offense. The defense appears to have nice pieces, but depth concerns me.
• Frank D: With the talent on the offensive side, I’m leaning towards the offense, but the depth at many positions is concerning should any of the key starters get injured.  As far as position group? Wide Receivers and tight ends. Hopefully the coaches will realize that the tight ends at FSU are also eligible receivers.
• Perry: The offense should be the better side, just based on the skill players around Ashton Daniels, though I’m on board with Jordan and Curt and do think the defense is going to benefit from a second year in Tony White’s system. Even with Ashton Daniels’ apparent low ceiling, high-floor hand leading the way, the receivers and running backs will be the driving force of FSU’s offensive success and having an offensive line that actually got to go through spring together will be a big difference.

No. 2: Outside of Duce Robinson, who will be the biggest difference maker for Florida State?

• Jordan Silversmith: Similar to what I said in my previous answer, this is one of the main worries I have for the team — a lack of top-end talent. Will anyone pick up double-digit sacks? How about a 1,000-yard rusher? All seem unlikely. The easy answer is Micahi Danzy because of what we saw last year, but he feels more explosive than a week-in, week-out difference-maker. So, again, with no options I feel particularly confident in, I will say Ousmane Kromah on offense and Ashlynd Barker on defense. FSU will almost certainly try to be a run-heavy team, and Kromah, as a physical back, could get much of the short-yardage work while getting double-digit touches a game. On defense, Barker takes over for Earl Little Jr. and broke the rock after summer workouts. He should be all around the ball all the time, and his frame will let him impact the run and passing game.
• NoleThruandThru: I’m sincerely hoping it’ll either be Rylan Kennedy, because FSU desperately needs production at edge, or Xavier Chaplin, because consistency at left tackle would be wonderful. Take hope out of the equation and I have to say punter Daniel Hughes, sadly.
• Curt: To me, it’s Ousmane Kromah. One of Mike Norvell’s biggest recruiting wins paid immediate dividends last season when he rushed for 408 yards and had 147 receiving yards as a freshman. There were times, especially late in the season, when he wasn’t featured heavily enough in the offense, with just three rushes (for 22 yards) at Clemson, four carries at NC State and five carries (for 27 yards) at Florida. Even with veteran back Quintrevion Wisner in from Texas, a full year in the college weight room and learning the ins and outs of what it takes to succeed at this level should help contribute to a national breakout for Kromah as a sophomore.
• Matt M: Ashton Daniels will be the biggest difference maker. Which way he makes a difference remains to be seen, however. If he plays as most expect, FSU misses a bowl. If he can summon up some Jordan Travis magic, FSU makes a bowl.
• Frank D: Ashton Daniels will surprise many, that is, if he can stay healthy. Kromah will also be a difference-maker if the coaches learn to manage the running game better than last year, give Ousmane the rock more often, and don’t pull him when he is averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
• Perry: I’m also on the Ousmane Train. You saw flashes last year that never evolved into full lightning strikes due to the handling of carries in the running back room, but the 1-2 punch of him and Wisner should enable the second-year running back to live up to the potential we saw on display.

No. 3: Who will become a household name this year?

• Jordan Silversmith: One of the freshman wide receivers will come on towards the end of the year and be the heir apparent to Robinson’s departure. Norvell continues to talk highly of Jasen Lopez and Devin Carter, and with Jayvan Boggs being limited to start fall camp, they should get tons of chances to see the field early. They are also wonderful stories, with Lopez trying to be a two-sport athlete, and Carter the son of Florida State legend Dexter.
• Curt: After he led FSU in sacks last season with 6.5 — third-most ever by an FSU true freshman — I think Mandrell Desir builds a larger national reputation in 2026. He was surprisingly dominant right away, especially considering he was a last-second addition to the Seminoles’ 2025 signing class alongside twin brother Darryll. Like Kromah who I discussed in my last answer, I think a full season in the system and weight room only help him be even more impressive in Year 2.
• NoleThruandThru: Jasen Lopez will become this year’s household name among Seminole faithful, similar to Micahi Danzy last season. Ever since he signed, I’ve believed Lopez will be a pleasant surprise in the slot role and in the return game.
• Matt M: Among the households of FSU fans, give me Malachi Marshall. Everyone loves the backup QB. Among households of our opponents, I’ll say Kromah due to his punishing style. Among the national households, cue the Larry David shrugging shoulder “meh” gif.
• Frank D: “CUT THE DUCE LOOSE” will be shouted out by Seminole fans across the nation. He already has the hype train going and will probably be featured at some point during each televised game. I also think a now healthy Ja’Bril Rawls will step into a leadership role on the defensive side, and his shoulder injury should not affect his role as FSU’s most reliable coverage defensive back this season.
• Perry: Add me into the Lopez camp — he’s got a pathway to playing early and he’s got a fun fact of being a two-sport athlete that announcers will remind you every five seconds of. On the defensive side of the ball, Daniel Lyons is my pick. He’s spent five years in Tallahassee but just became a full-time starter last season. Now, he’s being looked at as the leader of the defensive line and has put together the sort of offseason you’d hope for a key piece looking to continue to elevate.

No. 4: Do you think Ashton Daniels starts the entire season for the Seminoles?

• Jordan Silversmith: I do not see a scenario where Daniels starts all 12 games for Florida State this season. For one, if the season goes off the rails, the pressure to start one of the young quarterbacks will be too great. The other reason is that FSU will be relying on Daniels to use his legs and be a factor in the running game. As we have seen the past few seasons, it takes a toll on the quarterback. It is just a factor of modern football that quarterbacks are not as healthy anymore because of the amount of responsibility they are asked to take on.
• Curt: If that happens, it probably speaks favorably as to how FSU’s 2026 season plays out. Because if things start to go south with Daniels leading the offense, fans will certainly start to make their opinions known about who should be playing quarterback. We saw enough potential from Kevin Sperry as a freshman that he could be an intriguing option, and Malachi Marshall, the top quarterback in last year’s junior-college recruiting class, feels like the “try to save my job” lever that Norvell could pull around the midway point of the season. So in short, I doubt it. But it would probably be a good thing for FSU if it happens.
• NoleThruandThru: No. I think Malachi Marshall will start at least one game towards the end of the year.
• Matt M: Nope.
• Frank D: Oops, see question No. 2; however, with 5 new starters across the FSU offensive line, I hope the beating he could incur isn’t too severe. Being a dual threat will also get him hit, so I would encourage the coaching staff to work with the backups as much as possible during camp to get Sperry or the next man up ready just in case Daniels goes down.
• Perry: Curt said it best — if he does, things have gone pretty decently on the field, enough that the staff feels comfortable pinning their hopes and fans’ mental health on the transfer. Come the second bye, sitting 2-5 after failing to beat a power conference team in the first two months of the season? It’s hard to imagine the status quo remains anywhere across the board at that point.

No. 5: Which newcomer — freshman or transfer — are you most excited to see?

• Jordan Silversmith: Considering I cheated on this question by talking about the freshman wideouts earlier, I will say EDGE Rylan Kennedy. The former Texas A&M transfer was a rotational piece of the Aggie defense that reached the College Football Playoff last year. He is a pass-rush specialist and should be the lead sack-getter on the Seminole roster. But I am interested to see if new EDGE Coach Nick Williams can turn him into a well-rounded defensive end, which would give Tony White plenty of chess pieces of up front.
• NoleThruandThru: Right tackle Chimdia Nwaiwu, transfer from Stephen F. Austin. I think he has the tools to become a NFL draft pick and am looking forward to seeing him progress through this season and hopefully next season too. No offensive lineman on the team has a higher ceiling than him IMO, but he also has a pretty low floor. Boom or bust. Earn your paycheck, Herb Hand.
• Curt: Give me freshman receivers Jasen Lopez and Devin Carter. Both receivers were praised consistently by Norvell this spring, which is particularly impressive for Lopez considering he was splitting time between basketball and football. Norvell seems to believe both could be immediate contributors, and the playing time should be there with only two proven wideouts in Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy.
• Matt M: Devin Carter. Man, did I love watching his dad play and seeing him out there will give me some great memories of going to games with my old man.
• Frank D: I find transfer tackle Xavier Chaplin, who started 37 consecutive games over the past three seasons at Virginia Tech and Auburn, intriguing. I’m hoping he brings the leadership and experience to anchor and lead the revamped O-line for Daniels’ sake, and improve the running game that somehow averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 219 yards per game last season.
• Perry: It’s linebacker Chris Jones for me, who was one of FSU’s most important transfer pickups this offseason. It’s still to be seen whether he can smoothly make the jump from the Sun Belt, but he’s an explosive, sideline-to-sideline backer who has earned steady accolades from coaches and players alike. Sticking in the linebacker room, I don’t know how many snaps he’ll get, but Izayia Williams being healthy and ready to roll for fall has me excited about at least beginning his acclimation to the collegiate level.

No. 6: What’s your biggest area of concern on offense? Defense?

• Jordan Silversmith: On offense, it is simple: I do not trust the quarterback or the offensive line. I just do not think the Daniels experiment will work, and that there were better options in the portal. The offensive line is most likely relying on four of its five starters to play at a level they have never reached before. On defense, I wonder about the depth and the explosiveness. As mentioned, I actually like the pieces at each level. But it gets thin — fast, especially along the defensive front, which could wear down as the season moves along.
• Curt: Not exactly breaking new ground here but I’m quite skeptical of Ashton Daniels being the quarterback to bring the offense back after a few other failed transfer QBs the last two years. I realize a statline doesn’t define a quarterback but 24 passing touchdowns against 22 interceptions over four seasons at Stanford and Auburn doesn’t blow me away. It’ll be up to Norvell to tap into his athleticism, which hasn’t always been his strength as an offensive playcaller. On defense, I’m less worried overall. However, I would say that much of the talking point from the staff this offseason has been about how young they were a season ago and how that will pay off this year with many of those guys back. That is dependent on a number of players taking that leap, though, or it is hard to see the defense as a whole improving as much as it needs to.
• Matt M: My biggest area of concern is the head coach. In terms of positional units on the field, it’s the OL.
• NoleThruandThru: Offense is the quarterback position. Defense is the pass rush.
• Frank D: The defense, but we can only hope new coaches like Ernie Sims and Nick Williams can turn it around and prove me wrong. I’m hoping the defense improves despite being fairly young and inexperienced, aside from the twins and Rawls, to where they can finally find a way to close out games they should win.
• Perry: On both sides of the ball, it’s the trenches for me. While the offensive line did get a healthy spring in, there’s still a bit of confusion as to how the two-deep is going to shake out and on defense, things are really top-heavy as far as talent goes. With injury history aplenty amongst players on both sides, depth is a concern.

No. 7: Final record, how it unfolds and the result of it all — what’s your overall prediction for the season?

• Jordan Silversmith: It will be an ugly road to 5-7, with a couple of brutal losing streaks mixed in. This team will not be able to play an exciting brand of football because they do not have the horses to do so, and a couple of difficult road games leave no room for error. Count me for wins in the two buy games, UVA at home, Boston College, and then one other home game NCSU/UF/SMU/CU. That might even be too kind.
• Curt: Going to go with 6-6 and a really tough decision for the FSU administration. I’m aware that people will want Norvell fired if that’s how things play out. I’m just not sure it will happen. Hold onto your butts!
• NoleThruandThru: I think FSU wins between four to six games. Let’s say 5-7 to split the difference. There’s just too much variance this season among the decision-makers. After declining to fire Mike Norvell after the inexcusable Stanford loss last year due to his buyout, I can’t imagine the administration would keep him around just to fire him a year later, when the buyout barely drops. But then again, I might be thinking too logically for an administration that was anything but logical last year. Duce Robinson is the unquestioned leader in the locker room, but we haven’t really seen an equivalent on defense. Norvell is usually good for one winning performance that comes out of nowhere each season, along with at least one loss that results from inexplicable coaching decisions. I don’t have much faith in the talent/experience combination of FSU’s depth players this year. If injuries hit hard again with this schedule, I think this team is in deep trouble. Solid wins against NMSU and Central Arkansas, wild and close wins over Virginia, Boston College, and NC State (though admittedly, I don’t feel confident in any wins aside from the first two listed). Losses to everyone else, with Alabama, Miami, and Pittsburgh being blowouts. Closer losses to Clemson and Florida. Very close losses to SMU and Louisville. Norvell returns in 2027 due to his buyout, but Mike Alford and FSU “mutually” part ways. Might the Seminoles take a major swing and lure someone like Warde Manuel, who would arrive with baggage but could ultimately pay off by navigating FSU into the Big Ten?
• Matt M: I’ve got it as 4-8, with the tiers something like this:
  • Extremely likely wins: New Mexico State and Central Arkansas
  • Extremely likely losses: @Bama, @Louisville, @Miami, @Pittsburgh, and Clemson
  • We will probably win 1 or 2 of these, but who knows which ones: SMU, UVA, @Boston College, NC State, and UF
• Frank D:

• Perry: Right now, 6-6 is my gut feeling, with 5-7 more likely than 7-6. There’s just too many factors going against FSU for me to feel confident in anything more than that — both self-inflicted and schedule-related. There are a lot of pieces to like on this squad — Duce, the Desirs, Ousmane — but way too many questions coupled with obvious ceilings. It’s not a slate particularly set for the Seminoles’ success, either, with there not being a “guaranteed” win on it outside of New Mexico State and Central Arkansas. I think FSU is 4-3 at the second bye, losing to Alabama, Louisville and Miami, wrapping up the season with two straight wins over NC State and Florida to earn the third bowl bid of the Norvell tenure, finishing 7-6.

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