Can UCF football take down Oklahoma State on senior day? Our score predictions

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ORLANDO — For Scott Frost, UCF‘s football season boils down to its Nov. 22 home date with lowly Oklahoma State (1-9, 0-7).

Not only are the Knights’ hopes of bowl eligibility hanging by a thread, but their seniors will seek a successful sendoff — in particular, two stalwarts in the trenches that have given their entire college careers to UCF (4-6, 1-6) in spite of increasingly transient times.

Left tackle Paul Rubelt joined the program in 2020 after moving halfway across the globe from Germany, and the 6-foot-10, 330-pounder persisted through three coaching regimes in the space of six seasons.

“He was a great anchor for us. He’s like an ambassador for UCF,” Frost said. “I know the passion he has for UCF. He’s loved his time here, like most the guys have. We’ll be sad to see him go, but we know he has bright things ahead.”

Malachi Lawrence, meanwhile, is approaching the end of his fifth year at UCF, blossoming into one of the premier edge-setters in the Big 12. The 6-foot-4, 260-pounder has seven sacks this season and the fourth-highest pass-rush grade in the conference (90.0), per Pro Football Focus.

“I haven’t really thought about it yet, but it’s definitely going to be emotional — my last game in the Bounce House, in front of all the fans and stuff,” Lawrence said. “That’s something to just reflect on.”

Here is a full preview for the 4 p.m. matchup between teams at the bottom of the Big 12, including predictions from UCF beat writer Chris Boyle, sports editor Chris Vinel and columnist Ken Willis.

UCF vs. Oklahoma State tale of the tape

UCF was thoroughly outmanned and outclassed at Texas Tech, which bumped up to the No. 5 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Knights dropped to 0-4 on the road with the 48-9 defeat, and they have tallied just 43 points in their four westward trips.

Tayven Jackson produced a season-best 81.8% completion rate, but he threw his fifth interception since the start of October — compared to just three touchdowns. He has gone under 200 passing yards in six of his eight starts.

Dylan Wade and Duane Thomas Jr. shared the team lead with six receptions apiece, with Wade pulling down his second touchdown on UCF’s opening drive of the third quarter. Demari Henderson and Lewis Carter each recorded 12 tackles, and Isaiah Nixon generated a safety when held in the Red Raiders‘ end zone.

Oklahoma State is the only team looking up at UCF in the Big 12 standings. The Cowboys have lost 16 of their last 17 games; the lone win occurring Aug. 28 against Tennessee-Martin.

Mike Gundy’s 21-year run as Cowboys coach ended following a September home loss to Tulsa. Doug Meacham is in charge on an interim basis, but contenders for the full-time gig include South Florida head coach Alex Golesh, North Texas head coach Eric Morris, Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack and Texas A&M offensive coordinator Collin Klein, according to The Oklahoman’s Scott Wright.

Redshirt freshman Zane Flores threw for 233 yards last week against Kansas State but committed four turnovers (two lost fumbles, two interceptions) in a 14-6 loss. The Cowboys average a league-worst 14.3 points per game, nearly eight points fewer than any other team.

Oklahoma State held Kansas State to 284 yards of offense, just the second time this year in which its opponent failed to surpass 300. The defensive unit is last in the Big 12 in scoring (36.3 ppg), pass defense (264.5 ypg allowed), red zone defense (72.2% touchdown rate) and third-down conversion rate (45.7%).

UCF vs. Oklahoma State scouting report: What we’re watching

Chris Boyle: There’s not necessarily a ton of juice surrounding these squads, but UCF running back Jaden Nixon will get a long-awaited crack at his former team.

Nixon, who leads the Knights with seven rushing touchdowns, totaled 1,447 all-purpose yards and seven scores during in three seasons (27 games) for the Cowboys. The redshirt senior logged 15 carries last week at Texas Tech but found little room to operate against the nation’s top-ranked rush defense, gaining only 32 yards.

Oklahoma State, on the other hand, allows 163.3 yards per game on the ground. Nixon has the speed to exploit even the slightest crease, and he could be relied upon again if Myles Montgomery’s shoulder injury lingers.

Chris Vinel: A win here would boost UCF past its 2024 total. That would be at least a small mark of improvement for Frost in his first year back in charge of the Knights.

A loss might represent a new low in the program’s Big 12 history.

Ken Willis: How about this — first team to score a touchdown is the winner. Never mind, we might be here all night.

It’s a neat game in its own homely way. Both squads, no doubt, look at this one as a legitimate chance to have an enjoyable Saturday. Lose this one, and you really have to start wondering about the choices you’ve made.

UCF vs. Oklahoma State injury updates

Frost does not anticipate having either Jacurri Brown or Cam Fancher available for UCF’s final two games, leaving Jackson and redshirt freshman Davi Belfort as the only healthy options at quarterback.

Starting center Carter Miller is likely to miss his second straight game; Cam Kinnie kicked over from right guard, and Connor Meadows slid into the lineup for the first time. Wide receiver Chris Domercant is in the concussion protocol after a vicious fourth-quarter hit, Frost said.

Four players were listed out for Oklahoma State last week against Kansas State, including Hauss Hejny, who won the starting QB job out of fall camp. Hejny suffered a broken foot in the Cowboys’ opener.

Right guard Noah McKinney made five starts, but he entered the transfer portal last month and eventually committed to conference rival TCU.

UCF vs. Oklahoma State score predictions, picks

Chris Boyle: UCF 27, Oklahoma State 16

Chris Vinel: UCF 24, Oklahoma State 14

Ken Willis: UCF 9, Oklahoma State 8

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: UCF Knights football scouting report, picks for Oklahoma State game

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