CJ Carr's Advanced Stats Prove He's Notre Dame's Superstar Hiding in Plain Sight
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Notre Dame had a dominant 2025 season, but fell short in the games that carried the most weight.
The Fighting Irish dropped their first two games against eventual national runner-up Miami and College Football Playoff participant Texas A&M by a combined four points. Against the Hurricanes, Notre Dame dug itself out of a sizeable hole, but couldn’t close things out. A week later, the game came down to a botched extra point attempt that sank Notre Dame’s season before it got started.
By now, you know how the story goes. Despite an otherwise sterling regular-season record, the Fighting Irish were the final team left out of the 12-team CFP field. The fallout was massive, with the Fighting Irish electing to skip a bowl game altogether.
Amid the late-season controversy, one thing that got overlooked about Notre Dame’s 2025 season was the stellar play from quarterback CJ Carr. He had an excellent redshirt freshman campaign, tallying 24 touchdowns and six interceptions with a 66.6% completion percentage.
Carr passed the eye test. Traditional counting stats back up his strong play, too. What does the advanced data say?
CJ Carr By the Numbers
Carr is the type of college quarterback who executes at an elite level. He’s an extremely positive influence on the Notre Dame offense. He possesses good arm strength and can push the ball downfield to open receivers. When the situation requires it, he can put his foot in the ground and churn out hard yards.
When you dive a little deeper, the data tells the story of a quarterback who does everything at a high level and is a superstar hiding in plain sight.
According to Hudl IQ, last season, Carr posted 0.29 EPA/Play and 0.30 EPA/Pass figures. He averaged 14.1 yards per completion and a pass chunk percentage of 22.6% – greater figures than those of Indiana’s Josh Hoover and Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.
He also notched a wildly impressive 6.7% CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) figure, which factors in metrics such as throw depth, receiver separation, and pressure. A 6.7% CPOE figure is greater than that of Oregon’s Dante Moore, and just means Carr completed a higher percentage of difficult throws.
On top of all of that, Carr rarely gets sacked (2.6% sack rate) and averages 5.0 yards per rush.
At this point in Carr’s relatively young career, there’s not much he can’t do. If he can build off an incredibly strong redshirt freshman campaign, there’s no reason why he can’t be one of the top quarterbacks in all of college football.
CJ Carr is Poised for a Breakout Campaign
The unique wrinkle about playing for Notre Dame in 2026 is that Carr will have plenty of opportunities to beat up on opposing defenses as a heavy favorite.
The Fighting Irish have only two almost-guaranteed games against ranked opponents: BYU and Miami. There’s a solid chance they’ll face one more ranked opponent in the regular season when they square off against SMU on Nov. 21.
That means Carr will play against plenty of average to below-average defenses, which will likely result in him and the Notre Dame offense putting up some excellent numbers en route to a College Football Playoff berth.
The scariest part of Carr’s game is that he still has room to grow. He can improve his efficiency as a passer. He can become a greater factor in the run game with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price off to the NFL. With another year of seasoning, a loaded roster in tow and a comfortable schedule, there’s plenty of reason for optimism that Carr can and should be a Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback in 2026.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jul 31, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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