The Good, the Bad, the Ugly: PAC 12 FPI

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This week, we continue our preview series by taking a look at ESPN’s Football Power Index. FPI is a predictive rating system that was developed by ESPN to measure a team’s strength and determine expected outcomes over the course of the season. Last week, we looked at FPI projections for the Mountain West. This week, we are going to take a look at each PAC 12 team and evaluate each team’s ability to exceed expectations.

The Good (Championship Contenders)

Boise State (FPI Projected Record 7.8-3.8)

The Broncos are one of only four Group of Six teams to have a positive FPI and they come in number one at 4.0. The win estimate seems a little low considering the Broncos will likely be favorites in 11 of their 12 games. Boise State has lofty goals this season with hopes of nabbing the Group of Six spot in the College Football Playoff. As a result, I like their chances of winning at least eight games.

San Diego State (FPI Projected Record 7.5-4.0)

San Diego State is the second PAC 12 team with a positive FPI and the number four Group of Six school. Expectations have quickly changed for the Aztecs after narrowly missing out on the Mountain West Championship game last season. The Aztecs are expected to be even better this fall. They are, arguably, the most talented PAC 12 team in the trenches and have an elite backfield with Lucky Sutton leading the way. This team is poised to give Boise State a run for its money.

Fresno State (FPI Projected Record 6.2-5.0)

The Bulldogs are entering the second season of the Matt Entz era and their first season in the PAC 12. FPI projects the Bulldogs to be a bowl team and finish near the top of the conference. If Fresno State can show growth on the offensive side of the ball, they have an excellent chance to be in the hunt for a spot in the conference championship game.

The Bad

Washington State (FPI Projected Record 5.1-6.1)

The Cougars are my pick for a breakout season this fall. FPI projects them as a fringe bowl team, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Kirby Moore era starts off with a bang. This team has some firepower on offense and has a coaching staff that’s capable of building a winner. I expect the Cougars to win seven or eight games this fall.

Texas State (FPI Projeccted Record 5.6-5.6)

The Bobcats are a trendy team, and there is a good reason some pundits are high on this squad. The Bobcats have a talented offense and are led by, arguably, the top quarterback in the conference in Brad Jackson. Jackson is a true dual threat quarterback and an electric playmaker. However, I have some concerns about this team’s defense and their lack of depth at running back. This will be an entertaining squad, but the projection of 5.6 wins seems a bit high.

Utah State (FPI Projected Record 4.7-6.4)

The Aggies enter the second season of the Bronco Mendenhall era with plenty of questions on both sides of the ball and a challenging schedule that will be difficult to navigate. Utah State will be breaking in a new face at quarterback and it is looking like it might be a familiar face in former Utah State and BYU transfer McCae Hillstead. Hillstead had a promising freshman season but is a bit of an unknown. Whatever the situation at quarterback is, one thing is certain. This team will need to be significantly better on the defensive side of the ball.

The Ugly

Oregon State (FPI Projected Record 4.4-6.7)

A once proud football program is now in uncharted territory. Seeing the Beavers ranked near the bottom of the new PAC 12 feels odd. But the fact is this team has a new, unproven, head coach and is coming off of one of their worst seasons in recent memory. This squad is really hard to project with so many new faces. I think a number of outcomes are realistic, but the Beavers narrowly missing a bowl game feels like a reasonable expectation.

Colorado State (FPI Projected Record 3.6-7.5)

The Rams are breaking in a new head coach, as Jim Mora Jr. comes to Fort Collins from Connecticut. Mora Jr’s football pedigree is strong and he is a proven winner. Whether or not that will be a recipe for success as Colorado State enters its first season in the PAC 12 remains to be seen. I think this squad will exceed expectations but will likely fall just short of qualifying for a bowl game.

How do you feel about your team’s FPI projection? Will your team exceed expectations? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

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