4 CFB teams to exceed 2026 win projection — led by LSU

4 CFB teams to exceed 2026 win projection — led by LSU

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4 CFB teams to exceed 2026 win projection — led by LSU

Fall camp has kicked off around the college football landscape on Wednesday. Teams are going to start figuring out who their best 11 players are on each side of the football, and fans will begin to feel hope for the 2026 football season.

But in reality, only 12 teams will get a chance to play for a national championship. If your favorite team is going to get there, they have to win the games they’re supposed to win, along with winning a few games they aren’t.

Using FanDuel, here are four teams that should outperform their win projections in 2026.

MORE: 4 teams being overlooked in 2026 preseason Coaches Poll

LSU Tigers, Over 8.5 wins

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) is brought down by Louisiana State Tigers linebacker Whit Weeks (40) during a

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) is brought down by Louisiana State Tigers linebacker Whit Weeks (40) during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the LSU Tigers at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025. Credit: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

It’s Lane Kiffin’s first season at LSU and the Tigers certainly spent the money to make sure Kiffin has a good team around him. Shockingly, LSU hasn’t made a 12-team College Football Playoff, and the Tigers have the team to do so this season.

LSU does have the 11th-hardest strength of schedule this season, but nine or more wins is more than possible.

In my eyes, there are six toss-up games for the Tigers, which means they need to find a way to win three of those to reach nine or more wins.

Home games against Clemson, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Texas, while the Tigers have to go to both Ole Miss and Tennessee this season. Those are all the toss-up games on the schedule, and with LSU getting four of those games at home, Kiffin should be able to get to nine wins.

USC Trojans, Over 8.5 wins

NCAA Football: UCLA at Southern California

Nov 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) and head coach Lincoln Riley react after the game against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

USC has yet to make a College Football Playoff under Lincoln Riley, and the prolific offensive-minded coach could start feeling the heat. The Trojans expect to win with Riley, and this could be the year USC reaches its goal.

Despite having the 19th SOS, USC’s away schedule is manageable. The Trojans have to go to Penn State, Wisconsin, and Indiana, with their more difficult games coming at home: Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State.

If USC can take care of both Penn State and Wisconsin on the road, the Trojans’ path to nine wins, or more, becomes increasingly more likely.

BYU, Over 8.5 wins

NCAA Football: Big 12 Championship-BYU vs Texas Tech

Dec 6, 2025; Arlington, TX, USA; BYU Cougars running back LJ Martin (4) runs with the ball during the game between the Red Raiders and the Cougars at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

I not only think BYU will get to nine wins, but the Cougars could see 10 or 11 this season. Bear Bachmeier is back for his sophomore season, and BYU also returns star running back LJ Martin.

Despite losing defensive coordinator Jay Hill to Michigan, BYU’s defense should be stout once again this season. And there are only three games on this schedule that I have concerns about for BYU. Away games against TCU and Utah, along with a home date with Notre Dame.

All the remaining games, BYU should be favored. The Cougars’ away games aren’t daunting, and barring upset bids, BYU should be able to reach that nine-game barrier with ease.

Penn State, Over 9.5 wins

NCAA Football: Penn State Blue-White Spring Game

Apr 25, 2026; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) throws a pass during the Penn State Blue-White Spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Here we are, buying the Penn State hype once again. The Nittany Lions were a top-five team last year, and felt like they were destined to reach the College Football Playoff.

Instead, James Franklin was fired in the season and it’s a total reset in State College. But it’s Matt Campbell’s year to do something special.

PSU has the No. 62 SOS this season, and the Nittany Lions don’t play Ohio State, Oregon, or Indiana. The Nittany Lions do play Michigan and Washington on the road, while getting USC and Wisconsin at home. If Penn State can find a way to win two of those games this season — while not being upset — 10 wins is a real possibility.

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