ESPN features Iowa football among 31 teams that can reach CFP

The Iowa Hawkeyes are among 31 teams that ESPN feels could make the College Football Playoff.

For Iowa, it would represent a first-time trip to the CFP if the Hawkeyes can pull it off. The Hawkeyes would also need to do so with a new starting quarterback.

Mark Gronowski has moved on and Iowa is in the midst of a quarterback battle between Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski in fall camp. Still, ESPN analytics give Iowa an 11.8% chance of making the CFP.

ESPN's Heather Dinich took a look at Iowa's chances to be in the CFP mix, starting with what the committee will like about Iowa:

Early road wins. Iowa's best chance to start high in the committee's weekly rankings is with wins at Michigan (Sept. 26) and Washington (Oct. 9). That's a tall task, considering the Washington game is on a Friday night, just six days after Iowa hosts the Buckeyes. The committee would forgive that loss to Ohio State, though, if the Hawkeyes can beat Michigan and Washington, which both should be CFP top-25 teams. If Iowa has two losses before November, it will have a hard time finding a statement win powerful enough to boost its résumé and ranking when it matters the most. – Heather Dinich, ESPN

As Dinich noted, Iowa's three-game stretch at Michigan, against Ohio State and at Washington feels like its season-defining stretch. Two wins in that stretch coupled with an unbeaten nonconference slate (vs. Northern Illinois, vs. Iowa State, vs. Northern Iowa) would have the Hawkeyes squarely in the CFP mix.

On the flip side, what might the committee not like about Iowa?

An inability to finish big games. This is what happened to the Hawkeyes last year. Yes, the committee respects close losses to ranked opponents — it's not as damaging in the room — unless it happens repeatedly. Iowa lost to Indiana, Oregon and USC last year by a combined 12 points. Five measly points separated Iowa from national champion Indiana. The Hawkeyes lost by three on the road to in-state rival Iowa State. Those things individually didn't keep Iowa out of the CFP, but collectively, it was too much to overcome. This year, the committee needs to see Iowa on the other side of those close games on the biggest stages. – Heather Dinich, ESPN

Iowa was able to turn the big-game corner in its bowl game, topping then-No. 12 Vanderbilt, 34-27. But, the Hawkeyes are dealing with some serious turnover on both sides of the football.

Iowa returns five starters offensively (running back Kamari Moulton, wide receiver Reece Vander Zee, tight end DJ Vonnahme and offensive linemen Trevor Lauck and Kade Pieper) and just three starters defensively (linebacker Jayden Montgomery and defensive backs Deshaun Lee and Zach Lutmer).

With Phil Parker pulling the strings defensively, Hawkeye fans can look toward his track record in Iowa City and feel confident that Iowa will field another great defensive unit. Still, it's a lot to replace and some will want to see it to believe it.

Iowa is breaking in new specialists as well.

More than anything, this feels like a belief in Kirk Ferentz's ability to push the right buttons and give Iowa a chance to enter the CFP conversation.

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This article originally appeared on Hawkeyes Wire: ESPN features Iowa football among 31 teams that can reach CFP