Longhorns path to CFP? There is one, but don't your breath

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As the Longhorns prepare for the Razorbacks to come to town, many of the fans are firmly focused on if the CFP dreams are still alive. It’s impossible to know exactly what the Longhorns need because of the subjective nature of the committee, but I have a four step path for Texas to the CFP. I believe if all of these things can happen for the Longhorns, they could very well slide into that 11-seed on Selection Sunday. 

Spoiler Alert: It’s going to take a whole lot. 

Step 1: Texas Wins Out 

This is clear as can be. I don’t think it really has to be said, but Texas has to find a way to beat Arkansas and Texas A&M over the next two weeks to even have their name brought up on Selection Sunday. The Arkansas game is unlikely to do much good for Texas, but trying to win by a hefty margin would be a message sender at least. As for the A&M game, a win would be plenty, but a win by multiple scores could be a true difference maker if they are in the argument. 

Step 2: ACC & Big 12 Are Both 1-Bid Leagues

This has to be the case if Texas has a shot to find their way back into the 12-team field. Both conferences have a path to getting two teams into the field, but only a few things would need to happen to cut that down to one each. 

In the Big 12, two things likely need to happen in the next two weeks: Utah and BYU need to lose one more game. Utah plays Kansas State this week and then Kansas to finish the season, so they will be favored, but the Utes could get slipped up. For BYU, they are staring down a massive trip to Cincinnati this weekend and Longhorn fans should be cheering on the Bearcats. 

If those two lose one more game, then Texas Tech will play a team with at least two losses in the Big 12 title. This is where Longhorns fans might be upset: You have to root for the Red Raiders to win that game so they aren’t an at-large team. So Utah and BYU losing one more and Texas Tech winning the conference should set the Big 12 firmly as a one-bid league.

In the ACC, it’s rather simple. Miami just needs to lose one more of their regular season games. The only way the ACC gets two teams is if Miami runs the table, but doesn’t make the ACC Championship and they make the field as an at-large, along with the eventual champion. If Miami falls to Virginia Tech or Pittsburgh over the next two weeks, that is another conference that is firmly a one-bid league. The other thing that can’t happen is Georgia Tech beating Pitt AND Georgia to finish the season, giving them a likely at-large even with a loss in the ACC Championship.

Step 3: One More Loss For Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, USC & Michigan 

Moving into the SEC and B1G, it gets more specific. Texas is currently ranked behind Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and USC, with Michigan right behind them at 18. It’s hard to know if Michigan would knock a 9-3 Texas out if they beat Ohio State at the end of the year, but I’d be willing to bet they would, so let’s work with that assumption. 

Oklahoma plays Missouri at home this weekend before LSU to finish. Oklahoma will be favored in each matchups, but both Tigers are capable of knocking off the Sooners. As for Vanderbilt, they invite Kentucky into Nashville before a trip to Knoxville next week. Kentucky topping the Commodores might be far-fetched, but the Volunteers knocking them off is not. If those teams fall one more time, Texas would obviously have the advantage with the head-to-head wins against those two teams.

As for USC, the trip to Eugene this weekend figures to be the place the Trojans could trip up. They are underdogs for that game, and have struggled on the road, so USC falling this weekend is not remotely far fetched. As for Michigan, they head to Maryland this weekend to battle the Terps. That’s a tough spot, but Ohio State the following week will be the main place they would most likely fall, despite recent history. 

All of those teams can lose a game over the next two weeks. Oklahoma is less likely to fall than the other three, but the Sooners have a dangerous Missouri team coming into town this weekend. We will see if those four teams can do the Longhorns a favor and come out on the wrong side of one game down the stretch. 

Step 4: Win The Debate

If all of the things I just laid out happen, the CFP would likely be sitting at pretty firm numbers. The B1G would have three teams(Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon), the Big 12(Texas Tech) and the ACC(Georgia Tech/Virginia/SMU/Pitt) would have one and the SEC would have at least 4(Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama). The Group of 5 team would take up another slot, which would take the total to 10. Notre Dame losing would help, but assuming they win-out, the Fighting Irish are in and then it’s up to 11. 

That leaves one spot. Texas would be up against a 9-3 Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, which they have a head-to-head win over. Then the loser of the ACC championship or Big 12 championship would be either 10-3 or 9-4. If they are 9-4, I don’t think that would be much of a debate, but a 10-3 Virginia or Houston could complicate things. Despite that, I’d be willing to bet the Longhorns three wins over CFP contenders(Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma) would be enough to win the committee over and get Texas in. 

Final Take 

Let’s start with something here: the Longhorns do not deserve to make the CFP currently. That being said, it would not be the first time and won’t be the last that a team that didn’t “deserve” to get in. “Deserving” is a function of what is happening around you, and if Texas has tons of chaos around them, there is a path to the CFP, however slim it is. 

The only thing I want to be clear about is I do not expect all of these things to happen. I believe Oklahoma will be able to win out and find their set in the 12-team field. I believe Miami is likely to win out, as is Utah. It’s going to be nearly impossible for the Longhorns to find the 12-team field, but it’s outright wrong to say the Longhorns CFP hopes are dead. 

Again, I wouldn’t hold your breath here, but the Longhorns are technically alive.

This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Texas Football’s path to CFP is slim, but there is one route

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