30 Day Countdown, Day 24: Who Will Win the Big 12?

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ARLINGTON, TX – DECEMBER 06: Texas Tech Red Raiders running back Cameron Dickey (#8) runs up field during the Big 12 Championship Game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and BYU Cougars on December 6, 2025 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. (Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Good luck finding any Big 12 season previews that don’t spend 1/3 of their space talking about Brandon Sorsby. That subject has been covered to death, so I’m limiting myself to merely mentioning that he will not be the QB for Texas Tech this season. The gap he leaves creates one of the bigger question marks in a conference. Even with that uncertainty, the Red Raiders will enter the season as favorites to defend their conference championship and make it back to the CFP. Who are the teams best situated to challenge Texas Tech for the conference title and possibly make the Big 12 a two-bid league?

Texas Tech

Texas Tech has arguably adapted to the NIL/Transfer Portal era better than any team in the country, unsavory as it may be. Alum/Benefactor/Oil Tycoon/Slimeball Cody Campbell has given the team one of the top NIL budgets in the country and they have used it to elevate their talent level a clear cut above their in-conference competition. Last year, they last a single conference game, hammered the next two teams consistently over three combined meetings (BYU and Utah), finished in the top 10 in Offensive and Defensive SP+, and made a run to the CFP Quarterfinals. This year, Will Hammond looks like the starting QB, once he fully recovers from a torn ACL suffered early last season. Hammond is unspectacular, but gets the job done. The rest of the roster is loaded. RB Cameron Dickey might be the biggest star, but the offensive line is probably the best overall unit. Even WR looks great with four big-time transfers coming in. They also took in basically an entire starting-quality defensive lineup through the transfer portal despite having decent returning production. They might not have anyone as dominant as DE David Bailey, but they are incredibly deep with proven players everywhere on the depth chart. Like Miami in the ACC, something would have to go horribly wrong to offset the talent advantage they have over the rest of the conference.

BYU

The Cougars once again fought to retain Kalani Sitake after another season where they performed above expectations. QB Bear Bachmeier was good as a true freshman, which usually means there is room to grow into being a true star. They reloaded their offensive line, including UW tackle prospect Paki Finau, who was blocked on the depth chart in Seattle. There are two question marks related to departures They have to replace their top three receivers from a season ago without obvious backfills. They also lost their DC, Jay Hill, to Michigan. Despite the loss of Hill, the defense returns lots of experience and production, which should ease the transition for promoted LB coach Kelly Poppinga. As is often the case with BYU teams under Sitake, the question will be about the offensive explosiveness. If Bachmeier has the receivers to make enough big plays, it looks like the defense and the running game should support a real contender.

Utah

For the first time since the George Bush administration, the Utes will break in a new Head Coach in longtime assistant Morgan Scalley. The transition away from Kyle Whittingham was not as smooth as it could have been- they asked him to take a reduced role to give Scalley more runway as his successor and he ultimately “retired” and subsequently took the Michigan job-, but we ended up with the long-term succession plan the Utes wanted. Whittingham quietly went out on a high note. QB Devon Dampier elevated the offense to a top 10 national ranking in SP+, the defense was typically excellent, and the team lost only two games all year. Unfortunately for them, one of those losses was a road loss in the Holy War, which also served as a tie-breaker to keep them out of the CCG. Scalley’s job will not be easy since he has to break in a new OC and an almost entirely new offensive roster around Dampier. There’s also significant turnover on the defense, albeit with more coming in via the transfer portal. The ascension of Scalley and the return of Dampier may create the illusion of continuity, but everywhere else on the team, there is lots of change for the Utes.

Other Contenders

Kansas State handled their HC transition from Chris Klieman to Collin Klein with a bit more tact than Utah did their own. They’re coming off a down year and have a lot to replace in the trenches, so it won’t be an easy job for Klein out of the gates.

Houston, Arizona, and TCU all have coaches I highly respect and who should be able to churn out a winning record this season. With the uncertainty around some of the other contenders for the #2 spot, it’s very possible that one of these teams will get a few breaks in their favor and make the CCG.

Prediction: Texas Tech def. Houston. The Red Raiders are the class of the Big 12. They could be down to their 4th string QB and I’d probably still pick them on the strength of coaching and defense. I am much less certain on the #2 spot. I have enough questions about BYU, Utah, and K-State that I’m basically just choosing the team with a great coach and some roster continuity.

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