Michigan Football must win these games to make the CFP in 2026

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The Michigan Wolverines have one of the toughest schedules in the country in 2026. With six preseason top-25 teams, per the Coaches Poll, they’ll need to bring their A-game week after week in order to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.

While I’m generally an optimist with unrealistic expectations every offseason, I’ll admit that 9-3 seems like a tall task given all the changes, a relatively young roster, and head coach Kyle Whittingham’s first season coaching in the Big Ten. Still, if the Wolverines can get through their tough schedule with three losses or less, they should have a pretty strong resume.

Here are the must-win games for the Wolverines in 2026.

Oklahoma or Indiana

The Sooners haven’t necessarily shined since their move to the SEC, but head coach Brent Venables should have them in a good spot, especially on defense. If Michigan can make a statement with a win over an SEC team, it’s easy to see the narrative around the Wolverines starting to change. Even if the team has a bumpy start in Big Ten play, the head-to-head win vs Oklahoma would go a long way in the eyes of the committee.

If Michigan can’t take care of business in Week 2, the game vs Indiana becomes more of a must-win. Indiana is now a frontrunner in the Big Ten after winning both the conference and national titles last year. Head coach Curt Cignetti won’t let his team fall off completely despite losing Fernando Mendoza and others to the NFL. The preseason top-10 ranking shows that coaches are buying into Cignetti’s approach.

A win against Oklahoma would be really nice, but beating Indiana would do wonders for the Wolverines’ Big Ten standings, as well as give them a signature win against one of the best teams in the country. One of these games is a must-win.

At Oregon or at Ohio State

Michigan’s toughest tests this season will be on the road in some pretty hostile environments in November. Barring an insane turn of events for either team, Oregon and Ohio State will be two of the best teams, if not the best teams in the country, so Michigan absolutely needs to win one of these games to have a strong CFP argument.

The problem is it’s just tough to imagine losing to Oregon and Ohio State, plus one other team on the schedule, while still feeling secure in Michigan’s chances of making the CFP. It’s not impossible, but we saw what happened to Texas last season when it had three losses. And while the Longhorns had one really bad loss working against them, they couldn’t beat one of the two toughest teams on their schedule and fell to one of the first teams out of the CFP as a result. For Michigan to increase its chances of making the CFP, it needs to win one of these games.

Iowa or Penn State

Assuming Michigan can beat either Indiana or Oklahoma, and Ohio State or Oregon later in the season, it doesn’t need to win both games against Iowa and Penn State. Iowa is a tough team to play, although Michigan won’t have to travel to Kinnick Stadium this time around. Meanwhile, Penn State will be looking for a signature win in new head coach Matt Campbell’s first season.

Since it’s early in the season, I’m anticipating Penn State and Iowa will still be ranked in the top-25. If that changes, it feels like these games are both must-win games. Regardless, expect the Hawkeyes and Nittany Lions to put their best foot forward against the Wolverines. If they can win one of the games, they should be in a good spot for the CFP entering those aforementioned November games.

Michigan State

Ohio State is always a must-win in my book. I hate when Michigan loses that game, as I’m sure you do, too. However, Michigan doesn’t necessarily need to beat Ohio State to make the CFP. There are several scenarios where a loss in that game doesn’t hurt Michigan too much.

That’s why it’s tough to see the Michigan State game as anything but a must-win. The Wolverines don’t have the luxury of an easy schedule, and losing to Michigan State could put them in a situation where they need to win the final three games of the season, unless they had gone undefeated up to that point.

If Michigan is undefeated up to that point, having the only blemish on the schedule being a loss to the in-state rival would just plain suck. So, yeah, I’ll say it — Michigan needs to beat MSU no matter what.

We’re all just here for a good time while we wait to watch some actual games. Which games on the schedule are “must-wins” for you? Let us know in the comments below!

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